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  • The final cut of TMC Podcast #34 is available now with topics timestamped. We covered Tesla's rollercoaster prices, Toyota pushing junk science, Mike's new Model 3, Optimizing track mode for snow driving, FSD V11 apparently coming by the end of this week, and more. You can watch and check out the chat replay on YouTube.

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  1. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The scope of NHTSA's Request for Production covers all MY2012 through MY2019 Ss & Xs sold in USA and its territories. https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2019/INIM-DP19005-76719.pdf
  2. B

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Care to speculate on the September 2019 5,0 RMB credit line to finance vehicles in transit to China? Seems like that's about 8,000 vehicles at a conventional loan to value of security ratio. Transit time two Months max?
  3. B

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    "Construction in progress is primarily comprised of tooling and equipment related to the manufacturing of our vehicles and Gigafactory Shanghai construction. Completed assets are transferred to their respective asset classes, and depreciation begins when an asset is ready for its intended use...
  4. B

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Why? Doesn't depreciation based on useful life begin when the capital asset (and its capitalized interest) is placed in service?
  5. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    But, the Warehouse Agreements (WH) allow Tesla to receive most of the cash in the quarter the lease is initiated. The higher GM% on leases may be illusory since if the residual value assumed in pricing the lease is too high, the financial hit shows up in Services & Other. In the first half of...
  6. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If production is the constraint, it's a teeter-totter: auto sales revenue[not subject to deferral] (which is fully recognized in the quarter a vehicle is delivered) goes down while auto lease revenue goes up fractionally. Leases recognize the revenue over the term of the lease.
  7. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Acquisitions? Tesla paid $207 million (all stock) for MXWL--of which $105 million is intangible assets and $79 million is goodwill. Tesla paid $96 million ($80 million cash) for "Other Acquisitions"--of which $36 million is intangible assets and $ 41 million is goodwill.
  8. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    In 2Q19, Tesla delivered 89,214 non-lease new vehicles and increased the warranty reserve by $153.2 million or $1,717/delivered vehicle. In 3Q19, Tesla delivered 88,100 non-lease new vehicles and increased the warranty reserve by $1,38.0 million or $1,566/delivered vehicle. Also the expensed...
  9. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The Boring Company did not reinforce the Hawthorne tunnel with steel before abandoning it, Are they reinforcing the Las Vegas people mover, Loop to O'Hare, or DC to NYC tunnels?
  10. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That's cash from financing (debt) which accounts for nearly all the increase in the cash balance.
  11. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The solar glass is 15" x 45" or about 4.7 sq. ft. How thick? What weight/piece? How are field cuts made for penetrations. ridges, valleys, edges? How are valleys sealed? Replacing a roof as fast as with composition shingles is an aspiration.
  12. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Good summary of why Tesla's TAM is limited to re-roofs --we tried for over a year to get Tesla to work with our custom new home builder-zero interest and no idea how to make it possible. Tesla may be able to attract a few boutique builders in California, but there is insuficient in-house...
  13. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Watch the "hard to borrow" fees as the early indicator.
  14. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Sounds risky Which fault line do I live on? A guide to the major Bay Area faults
  15. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Please share the details of the bids and your cost-benefit analysis. Is your damaged roof composition shingles? Is the damaged roof water tight? Mod: I edited this post to fix the broken quote. Why can't people look at their own posts to see if they got it right, and fix them? --ggr.
  16. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Regulatory credits. Apparently, Tesla has not been selling (California) ZEV credits recently: In California: Between September 1, 2017 and August 31, 2018, Tesla sold 88,214 credits and ended with a balance of 74,712 credits...
  17. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The exposure is not from first party claims but from third party litigation. Tesla "self insures" its product liability exposure.
  18. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Enough to pay lobbyists and max out legal contributions to influential state legislators' campaigns.
  19. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla takes zero used ICE vehicles as trade-ins; they match whatever wholesale value the appraisers from CarMax Cars.com, AutoNation, CarBuyersUSA, etc. put in writing, ceding the resale profits to those enterprises. Tesla no longer re-habs lease returns and traded-in Tesla models. It's...
  20. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Multiple ones (there have been over 90 documented deaths but not all resulted in litigation). For each settlement, Tesla's outside counsel has had the competency to include a Confidentiality/NDA clause. PM me if you want the details.
  21. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It really depends on the additional detail provided in the 10Q, but here's a couple SWAGs: One possibility could be "Net changes in liability for pre-existing warranties, including expirations and foreign exchange impact" Tesla has a lot of discretion of how much it reserves for warranty each...
  22. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Can you cite a single wrongful death suit against Tesla that has been tried? TeslaDeaths.com: Digital record of Tesla crashes resulting in death
  23. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Cash & Equivalents increased by $376MM during the quarter but Tesla's debt increased by $363MM; $294MM was non-recouse--China In-Transit line?
  24. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The Twelfth of Never. Gruesome cases like that are quietly settled after the plaintiff's shark (usually on a contingency) runs up the defense expense during discovery.
  25. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The loan was approved in the fall of 2009 after Tesal bunched Roadster deliveries into July 2009 to report "a profitable month" giving the new bureaucrats at DOE a basis for satisfying the "financially viable" requirement, Funding began in early 2010.
  26. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable Tesla has been taking in trade-ins for seven years and lease returns for four years. For whatever reason, unlike "stealerships," Tesla does not view used vehicles as a profit opportunity.
  27. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes. But a -20+% gross margin is a loss of $119 million in 3 months at the gross profit level (i.e. with no allocation of SG&A).
  28. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    S & X tooling has likely exhausted units of production volume basis--which (along with no impairment in 3Q19) could be part of the reason Depreciation, Amortization And Impairment decreased Q over Q from $579 MM to $530 MM while autos produced increased over 10 percent.
  29. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    WE provide a manufacturer’s warranty on all new and used vehicles, production powertrain components and systems and energy storage products we sell. In addition, we also provide a warranty on the installation and components of the solar energy systems we sell for periods typically between 10 to...
  30. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Warranty work is Auto Sales COGS not Services & Other.
  31. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It's primarily losses on used car trade-ins and lease returns.
  32. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Total Deferred Revenue 2Q19--$2.066B Total Deferred Revenue 2Q19--$2.185B How much was deferred vs recognized during the quarter? From the 2Q19 10Q: Automotive sales revenue includes revenues related to deliveries of new vehicles, and specific other features and services that meet the...
  33. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    For first nine months of 2018, Energy generation and storage revenue was $1,183MM with GM % of 12.4% For first nine months of 2019, Energy generation and storage revenue was $1,095 MM with GM % of 12.7% For first nine months of 2018, Energy generation and storage revenue was 8.3% of Total...
  34. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It's depends on how the buy side analysts at institutional funds assess TSLA's growth prospects. Net Income was $143 MM or annualized at $572 MM. With 179 MM shares outstanding and a share price of $305 that's a P/E of about 95 (worse for TTM.) Try computing a PEG ratio based on your...
  35. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Pretty much up to Tesla's discretion for quarterly filings. For annual report, it's more about convincing PWC that they can justify the amount of cumulative deferred revenue they want to recognize. Also, NHTSA has expressed some concerns about Smart Summon.
  36. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Major difference between 2q19 (-$408 MM net income) vs 3q19 ($143 MM net income) or $551 MM difference: Gross Profit $157 MM ex credits Other Income (Expense) $126 MM--Currency Exchange rates? Restructuring $117 MM Lower SG&A $53 MM Reg Credits 23 MM
  37. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not shares. It's an option grant as compensation for serving as a Director.
  38. B

    CO2 out of main

    That's just silly. Energy is what matters, not carbon.
  39. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Either or both--show your calculations
  40. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    +++++ Run a life cycle energy balance and let's compare results.
  41. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Another round of "Cash for Clunkers"? All the destruction of the embedded energy in useful clunkers with remaining lives of decade or more for a modest improvement in MPG that will take multiple decades (if ever) to get back to even with nature? Too bad AOC is too young to pick the Burn for...
  42. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    P***** in the wind. One of five activities elder gentlemen should refrain from.
  43. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Legislators or TxPUC staff? If the latter, that can quickly change until the Intervenors tie it up in a T&D utility's rate case docket. Look at what happened to the ONCOR idea of purchasing beaucoup Power-Packs
  44. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    "50 GW of wind, 28.5 GW of solar and 5.7 GW of storage in its interconnection queue as of June.... The developer declined to provide financial details of the sale."
  45. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Or early 2014. TSLA has been dead money going on the last half dozen years--it pays no dividend. Either trade it or bet on that little ball landing on the green double zero.
  46. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    CAFE & GHG penalties are nation-wide and apply in the US and its northern neighbor. FCA deal is all EU. You can research CARB's annual ZEV reports at Zero-Emission Vehicle Credit Balances | California Air Resources Board TM not FCA has been the recent buyer, replacing HMC.
  47. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Sounds like investment in a Texas T&D utility might be prudent.
  48. B

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There goes the Auto VIEs, but then along came "slo walkin', slo talkin"" FCA. Recognition of "Mouse nut" credits like ZEV, GHG & CAFE are still an enigma when trying to model the financials.

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