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  • The final cut of TMC Podcast #34 is available now with topics timestamped. We covered Tesla's rollercoaster prices, Toyota pushing junk science, Mike's new Model 3, Optimizing track mode for snow driving, FSD V11 apparently coming by the end of this week, and more. You can watch and check out the chat replay on YouTube.

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  1. T

    Wiki Tesla Europe Registration Stats

    These are the February 2020 (YTD) numbers from Ireland: they are close to needing a separate row from "others". Tesla Model 3 154 (203) Tesla Model X 1 (5) Tesla Model S 2 (5) Tesla February 157 (213)
  2. T

    Wiki Tesla Europe Registration Stats

    These are the January 2020 (2019) numbers from Ireland: Tesla Model 3 49 (0) Tesla Model X 4 (3) Tesla Model S 3 (10) Tesla January 56 (13)
  3. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Here's some sales news: from beep beep.ie Ireland November 2019 Registrations: Model 3 136 Model X 3 Model S 3 YTD: 255 Tesla vehicles Ireland November 2018 Registrations: Model 3 0 Model X 0 Model S 1 YTD 117 Tesla vehicles
  4. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Quotes from article: The company, part of a South Korean conglomerate known as SK Group, said the nearly $1.7 billion factory will open in phases and should reach its full jobs potential by 2025..... The new factory is expected to produce enough batteries to power 250,000 electric vehicles...
  5. T

    Wiki Tesla Europe Registration Stats

    Ireland: October 2019 23 Model 3 7 Model X 3 Model S
  6. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    --- I just don't see instant demand / supply for a thousand new roof installs per week. Making a thousand Model 3s is way easier - all the components go to one location - all the workers go to one location - and the workplace is indoors. And the delivery process begins when the cars exit...
  7. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Our local Reno TV station did a piece on the Gigafactory and the following statement stood out for me: KOLO 8: Sept 2019 "We're in the final assembly of the drive unit area so we actually make all of the drive units for Model 3 and now we're making Model S and Model X units as well...it's what...
  8. T

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    I agree 100%. The bear fascination about price cuts blinded them to the possibility that Tesla actually wanted to run their business segments more efficiently. All the assumptions were that COGS would remain static and margins would deteriorate just because Tesla had shaved ASPs. In fact...
  9. T

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    I think that the lower the base price Tesla makes a vehicle - be it Model S/X or Model 3 - the probability that the customer will choose more expensive options like white interior or red color increases. In other words, if Tesla drops the base price by $2000, do we not expect a greater uptake...
  10. T

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    I am close to the EVNow numbers myself but I have a better scenario for "Services" - three reasons. 1. CPO sales are probably more profitable as the revalued used cars from the January new car price drop has probably been flushed out of the system. 2. Servicing/Repair efficiency has probably...
  11. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    https://www.storeycounty.org/AgendaCenter/ViewFile/Agenda/837?html=true Check out items 8 and 9... Who wants to build a gigantic solar power generating plant in the same business park that is home to the Gigafactory? This is the Planning Commission Agenda from Storey County, Nevada...
  12. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    In Q2, there were 23019 total new Teslas registered in Europe. In Q3, that number is 25208 just in countries which have reported so far. September numbers for France, the UK, Portugal and Other are still outstanding. I estimate about 5,1k left, although the UK estimate of 3,5k (based on August...
  13. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I thought Musk's email was the opposite of "frantic". There was no "if we all put in the effort and deliver 8,000 vehicles in the next five days" etc. we reach our goal. He just said 100,000 was close.
  14. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I see this as "bullish". There are no tweets or internal emails yet quoted about the need to sell x thousands of Model 3s to meet the quarter's goal. I think Tesla has strong end-of-quarter pushes in Europe, UK, and Australia but a stronger August delivery total appears to have ameliorated...
  15. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I believe New Zealand has an open Government registry of car registrations and Mandy Simpson is patiently sifting the info.. for new Teslas
  16. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I do believe Tesla is also selling like hot cakes in New Zealand -and perhaps those 2400 plus vehicles includes a few hundred for NZ. They all go on the same containerships...just different discharge ports.. NZ Model 3 Registrations about 300+ so far
  17. T

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    20% Model S/X - I think the production costs of the Raven are cheaper because the motors are now made in Nevada - and there's no inventory hang of Model S/X 75s to be discounted. 19.6% Model 3 - slightly higher than Q2. 14% Energy Storage - think the supply of batteries has increased and is more...
  18. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think you have to acknowledge that the UK may take 4000+ Model 3s in Q3 (2082 in August alone) and this will offset some of the decline in the Continent numbers for Q3. And, to look in the opposite direction: Australia and New Zealand may account for a couple of thousand vehicles in Q3:
  19. T

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    What I don't see mentioned is any discussion about Tesla accessories as an income source. Wall connectors and floor mats etc. I imagine these are high profit margin items and with the rapid deployment of the Model 3 globally, I'd expect this to be growing rapidly. Right now the Gloss...
  20. T

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    I have deliveries for Q3 Model S/X 18,500 ASP $94,500 Model 3 81,750 ASP $48,300 Gross Profit: $1,045 million SG&A $667 million R&D $334 million Restructuring. $25 million Profit before Interest $19 million.
  21. T

    EV Fires in Australia

    There are two scenarios: 1) Caught fire after an accident when the car is seriously damaged, or 2) Caught fire when parked or being driven in normal operation. I know of no RECENT cases of the newer Tesla vehicles catching fire spontaneously.. I believe that some earlier versions of the Model...
  22. T

    Tesla Model 3 in Australia

    VIN numbers are registered with the NHTSA before the vehicles are manufactured. The VIN has the place of manufacturer, year of manufacture, and details about variants of the vehicle like RHD and LHD so the Government can send recall notices to vehicle owners for specific problems in a specific...
  23. T

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    I think the "services" loss estimated by FrankSG for Q3 is too high. There was a significant improvement in margins in Q2 and I don't see that reversing. My theory is that Tesla sold a boatload of Model 3s in Q4 by taking in used Model S at a generous trade-in value..and then Tesla dropped...
  24. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There are three good reasons to use a P/S ratio: 1) Sales revenues is a very good indication of the demand for the company's products. Regardless of the gross profit margin, it indicates that the company is making things that the buying public wants.. A company with declining gross revenues...
  25. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I live in a new housing (tract) estate in Northern Nevada and the single family residence comes with a three car garages - actually room for two vehicles and the bulk stuff we bought at Costco - and yet the majority of my neighbors don't put a single vehicle in their garages.. Having said that...
  26. T

    Delivery call - WARNING

    Ah, but BMW dealers did that last week and the week before, and the week before that. Tesla UK is facing the prospect in the next three weeks of delivering ten times their weekly delivery amount of vehicles. ..from ten a day to a hundred a day - of a vehicle they haven't seen much of before..
  27. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    When NASCAR runs an all electric vehicle series like Formula E we will know that Tesla has arrived...in the heartland. I remember when Toyota first began competing and they were greeted with a haughty disdain...and now, nobody cares...
  28. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Anton's article is coming tomorrow - Q3 Model 3 sales in Norway down 81% vs. Q2 I just checked: eu-evs.com April 1-11th Model S/X sales were 48 July 1-11th Model S/X sales were 81 Q3 Model S/X sales in Norway up 69% vs. Q2
  29. T

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    I think California has quite stiff requirements coming in the next five years: The credit requirement is 4.5 percent in 2018, which will require about 2.5 percent of sales to be ZEVs. The credit requirement rises to 22 percent in 2025, which will require about 8 percent of sales to be ZEVs...
  30. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    err, no they didn't. They beat the English. In the group stages you will have noticed that Scotland fielded it's own team... And yes, Wales and Northern Ireland have their own "national" teams. It is confusing but the respective "Football Associations" of the four nations refuse to combine...
  31. T

    Wiki Tesla Europe Registration Stats

    According to Beepbeep.ie Ireland June: Model S 6 Model X 4 Model 3 0
  32. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Everyone in my experience knows the eye-rolling that happens among the staff at those first few meetings: when the small company hires the senior executive from the larger, more successful company.. Sentences begin with: "At Tesla, we did blah blah blah.." Really? When you're doing $8...
  33. T

    Is Tesla serious about the long term car manufacturing?

    I understand your frustration but the factory is on the West Coast of the United States so the ability of Fremont to produce RHD Model 3s to meet UK demand is lagged by thirty days or more. The ordered cars are either on the water or to be made in early July and delivered in August...
  34. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Places where lots of people work shifts? If all the folks were working 9-5 it is hard to work in that "afternoon delight" and not be worried about where the spouse is...
  35. T

    Market politics

    1. Many Dems do get contributions from big oil. (A very few don't accept them) 2. Some (not sure how many) Dem politicians are car dealers. 3. All Dems get contributions from car dealers (and so do all Republicans) This is not what is happening.. 1) Many Dems get large contributions from public...
  36. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Logically they would license Panasonic to make the Maxwell Tech battery cells at GF1. Panasonic is running at full speed to supply battery cells for the Model 3 and I don't see Tesla wanting to get into the battery cell production business at the same location. Panasonic knows the machinery...
  37. T

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    The Trans-Pacific trade is heavily eastbound - to the US - exports in the opposite direction are not able to fill a ship - in my experience - containerships came in 100% full and left 70% full plus empties. I doubt if the auto RO-RO trade is different. So owners would rather load a return...
  38. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There seems to be a perception that no other car manufacturer in the world is actually close to producing EVs. --- No, we are all aware that there are countless announcements of impending BEVs from almost all manufacturers and /or joint ventures to build battery cell factories but nobody seems...
  39. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    But this revelation should open consumers' eyes that every gasoline-powered car they buy subsidizes Tesla's existence, say industry observers. Let's put this the correct way - GM would rather make gigantic profits on their gasoline vehicles like SUVs and pay Tesla for making electric vehicles...
  40. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The Europeans do get way more public holidays than Americans... Norway had no deliveries on Maundy Thursday April 18th, Good Friday, April 19th, Holy Saturday April 20th, and Easter Day, April 21st, and Easter Monday, April 22nd...five days consecutively. And May 1st Labor Day, May 17th...
  41. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'd expect InsideEVs to have an estimate for US sales by Wednesday and I'd expect it will take about ten days for the major European countries to report - with some providing solid numbers of actual deliveries next week.
  42. T

    Service: Mildly disappointed with current execution but thrilled with the potential

    The car also informed her that the required parts were ordered and would be shipped to the service center. --- You'd think it would be simple software coding to prevent the service center from scheduling an appointment before the required parts were estimated to arrive..and I hope that is...
  43. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Where Does the Car Dealer Make Money? | Edmunds “So where does the majority of a dealership's profit come from? It's not from car sales, at least not directly. It's from the service and parts department, which accounts for 44 percent of the dealership's gross profits, according to NADA.” I...
  44. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The US to China trade flow and the US West Coast to Europe trade flow is the weaker side of the trade - so shipping companies are anxious to find any cargo moving to China or Europe because it helps fill what is a pretty empty ship...so a) rates are lower and b) the ship doesn't have to be...
  45. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So Tesla has acquired an exciting dry battery electrode process by buying Maxwell Tech. So what is the next step? Clearly, they would want to set up some prototype production line but Tesla has no experience making battery cells. So license it to Panasonic? Make 18650 battery cells for the...
  46. T

    Hi, I’m a short seller

    I think this is the key element - the "dealership" part of Tesla's business. If Tesla can get the parts distribution to work efficiently - it should improve the productivity of the service centers and that would mean that this loss can be reduced or eliminated...
  47. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I don't think the earlier poster is correct about Tesla stock dipping below $200/share as being a catalyst for more selling..I believe that the stock will be okay if it closes above $200/share...an intraday reversal is a healthy sign...if it dips below a strategic price pint and rebounds...
  48. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    And bought some more shares at $198.xx - the bargain bin is going to empty fast...
  49. T

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I have a serious question about autonomous taxis. What happens - in a riot or crowd disturbance...after a pro sports game finishes perhaps... What happens if the youths of an area decide to place trashcans in front of every taxi and then tip them over and set fire to them? The taxi is not...

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