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  1. willow_hiller

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    "Insinuates" is a rather odd word to choose here, considering it is rolling out to customer vehicles as we speak: TeslaFi.com Firmware Tracker
  2. willow_hiller

    Wiki FSD Beta v11.x

    Quick turnaround video by Chuck:
  3. willow_hiller

    Autonomous Car Progress

    It's only 4 pages. Here's a full text extract:
  4. willow_hiller

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    The Tesla bull in me is very hyped. This all but cements NACS as the winner over CCS. But the investor in me thinks this will likely be too technical for anyone with institutional buying power to understand or care about.
  5. willow_hiller

    The Neuralink Master Thread

    Huge news: FDA approval for human clinical studies.
  6. willow_hiller

    FSD discussion

    The car was stationary, and he was filming the playback of the recorded clip. Those are the errors you get when a wheel sensor gets disconnected; so it proves he did indeed damage the car prior to filming the video, but is unrelated to whether FSD Beta was active at the time of the accident.
  7. willow_hiller

    H/W 4.0 discussion (investors)

    HW4 has made it to the Model Y, supposedly:
  8. willow_hiller

    FSD discussion

    There's zero evidence that FSD Beta was active, or even available on the vehicle. He might have accidentally hit a curb while driving manually, made a dashcam clip, and decided to cause a stir by blaming it on FSD Beta. If he could stand by the video, why use a throwaway account? There's no...
  9. willow_hiller

    FSD discussion

    I'm calling BS. It's a throwaway Reddit account: And just 16 days ago, they said on the main Tesla subreddit that they wouldn't buy FSD until it's account-based:
  10. willow_hiller

    Wiki FSD Beta v11.x

    Any Aussies in the thread?
  11. willow_hiller

    Wiki FSD Beta v11.x

    One of them items in the 11.4.1 release notes addressed making these adjustments with less jerk. That will probably help: "- Smoothed in-lane offsetting for large vehicles by tuning the amount of lateral jerk allowed for the maneuver."
  12. willow_hiller

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This adds some important context to Elon's interview tomorrow: Given it's at Ari Emanuel's recommendation, I imagine Tesla will not be the main topic of discussion, despite the timing.
  13. willow_hiller

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    This CNBC appearance has me thinking Tesla might have some sort of concrete announcement that Elon wants to brag about. Why else would Elon have a live TV interview scheduled for 6 PM when the annual shareholder meeting starts at 4 PM?
  14. willow_hiller

    H/W 4.0 discussion (investors)

    TeslaFi is reporting it as well: TeslaFi.com Firmware Tracker One 2023 model year HW4 Model S: And here's the post with the shot of the firmware page. All Ultra Red Plaid Model S should be HW4: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/fsd-beta-v11-x.252161/page-327#post-7609462
  15. willow_hiller

    H/W 4.0 discussion (investors)

    FYI: we have TMC members with HW4 reporting receiving FSD Beta v11.4.1 https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/fsd-beta-v11-x.252161/page-327#post-7609515 Interested to see if there are any differences in performance.
  16. willow_hiller

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    Should make the errant lane changes better:
  17. willow_hiller

    FSD discussion

    V11.4.1 rolling out to a small group of customers now:
  18. willow_hiller

    Wiki FSD Beta v11.x

    I think we have our first non-employee deployments of v11.4.1:
  19. willow_hiller

    Who will be the new TWTR CEO?

    You nailed it, Curt. Great intuition: https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-twitter-ceo-elon-musk-7a006bb5
  20. willow_hiller

    Wiki FSD Beta v11.x

    First video of v11.4.1, watching it now:
  21. willow_hiller

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    The tweet he's replying to says "Wonder if smart summon and reverse summon will get a big update soon." Unless Elon is completely ignoring the context, the "update" in his tweet is talking about smart summon.
  22. willow_hiller

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    Smart summon updates in a "few months": So in Elon time, maybe before the end of 2023?
  23. willow_hiller

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    Again, Elon seems to be talking about end-to-end here:
  24. willow_hiller

    Wiki FSD Beta v11.x

    v11.4.1 release notes. At first glance they do appear different from v11.4: FSD Beta v11.4.1 Autopilot Improvements - Improved control through turns, and smoothness in general, by improving geometry, curvature, position, type and topology of lanes, lines, road edges, and restricted space...
  25. willow_hiller

    Autonomous Car Progress

    You literally tagged me in your post for a response. If you don't want a response, maybe don't tag me?
  26. willow_hiller

    Autonomous Car Progress

    I'm not arguing with you about who is ahead. I'm arguing with @Bladerskb , who is saying that MobileEye is implicitly superior to FSD Beta because it's being licensed by other automakers.
  27. willow_hiller

    Autonomous Car Progress

    What is your metric for one company being ahead of the other? Surely we can't just look at the number of sensors and say that makes one approach more advanced. Take a look at the feature-set of SuperVision: Mobileye SuperVision™ | The Bridge from ADAS to Consumer AVs Most of these were...
  28. willow_hiller

    Autonomous Car Progress

    https://www.mobileye.com/news/porsche-mobileye-supervision-collaboration/ "This new effort builds on our strategy of advancing autonomy through evolution, starting from today’s eyes-on, hands-on driver assist systems through SuperVision-based systems that enable hands-off operation for...
  29. willow_hiller

    Wiki FSD Beta v11.x

    We all understand "end-to-end" to mean 1 gigantic neural network that takes camera data as inputs and outputs controls, but I wonder if Elon is just misusing it. Contextual, we know Elon was tweeting about replacing more of the control and planning code with neural nets: So he might just mean...
  30. willow_hiller

    Wiki FSD Beta v11.x

    To me, using it better means having realistic expectations, accepting it's not going to drive like you do, and being able to distinguish undesirable driving and unsafe driving. It's tempting to treat any driving behavior that differs from what you would do yourself as unsafe, and if you...
  31. willow_hiller

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    In case these are helpful. Max pain at 162.5, but call wall at 170 and put wall at 160. So you can see how the call open interest at 165 would mean market-markers would prefer 160<sp<165, but they might have to settle for 165<sp<170.
  32. willow_hiller

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    Is this the first time Elon's actually tweeted about the specific types of interventions he experiences? I know we have a flock of tweets with vague "great"s and "amazings"s but this seems like a measured assessment instead of an exaggeration.
  33. willow_hiller

    Wiki FSD Beta v11.x

    Counter-rumors. Who knows what's true anymore 🤷‍♂️
  34. willow_hiller

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Ford's quarterly results are out, and with them, more breakdowns of Ford Model e division. EBIT margin of -102% sounds rough:
  35. willow_hiller

    Wiki FSD Beta v11.x

    Rumors of v11.4.2 reaching employees now. Sounds like v11.4.1 went out only to a select few before it could be released wider internally:
  36. willow_hiller

    FSD discussion

    I was thinking it would be nice if Tesla gave us a common vocabulary to use in voice reports. I often struggle to come up with the words to describe faults succinctly in a way I hope whatever is interpreting them can understand. But with a common vocabulary, you could potentially track L3/L4...
  37. willow_hiller

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    I think Cruise can be a little more than assertive around pedestrians. It's just a single anecdotal case, but doesn't look like an appropriate response to pedestrians: Cruise replied saying it had behaved accurately to "minimize risk for both passengers and pedestrians," but I don't think the...
  38. willow_hiller

    FSD discussion

    Thanks. So it does sound like most of Tesla's reported collisions would be L1, with some L2. There is somewhat of a fundamental issue with how these severities are defined, however. They're all seem to be written assuming a human will review every mile driven and manually compile reports. Tesla...
  39. willow_hiller

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Interesting thread on how the next Fed announcement on Wednesday may not include the eventual pivot that markets are expecting. The long story short is that Powell is likely to want to follow in Volcker's footsteps and avoid associations with a 1970s Fed chair that failed to curb inflation by...
  40. willow_hiller

    Wiki FSD Beta v11.x

    I don't think we've seen 11.4.1 on an employee vehicle, yet, have we? Last I saw it was 11.4, so this Tweet from Elon represents the first point release update from 11.4.
  41. willow_hiller

    FSD discussion

    Here's Tesla's description of their crash criteria according to the Vehicle Safety Report: "we count all crashes in which the incident alert indicated an airbag or other active restraint deployed. In practice, this correlates to nearly any crash at about 12 mph (20 kph) or above, depending on...
  42. willow_hiller

    Wiki FSD Beta v11.x

    Sounds like Elon is already testing 11.4.1. Maybe we'll get a full release by 11.4.2:
  43. willow_hiller

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    Looks like Tesla has internally progressed from 11.4 to 11.4.1:
  44. willow_hiller

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I've never seen that price adjustment text before. It says"Preisanpassung: -1.710 €" which translates to "Price adjustment: -€1,710". When Tesla modifies base prices, the change isn't written directly on the inventory page. These are likely to be showroom models with small discounts for them...
  45. willow_hiller

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The real world isn't as simple as economic models, but I am seeing a consistent misunderstanding here and on Tesla-Twitter about a shift in the demand curve, versus the equilibrium point moving along the existing demand curve. Tesla is increasing supply, so it's entirely possible that the demand...
  46. willow_hiller

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Didn't see this posted, yet. We know Tesla has high rates of brand loyalty, so high volumes of used Teslas entering the used market also likely means that equally large volumes of new Teslas being purchased to replace them...
  47. willow_hiller

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    The point of the defense isn't what Elon said, it's the fact that Elon is no longer in complete control of what others think he said. Their argument is that there's a sufficient amount of misinformation that it's not possible to know which exact statements influenced Walter Huang to misuse...
  48. willow_hiller

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    It seems like a pretty straightforward defence to me, being blown out of proportion. They are suing claiming Elon's statements led the deceased to believe he could play games on his phone and not pay attention to the road. Elon made no such statements about the abilities of Autopilot at the...
  49. willow_hiller

    Wiki FSD Beta v11.x

    It looks to me like it recognized the flatbed as a vehicle at first and pulled up behind it. But after a second it forgot that it had recognized the flatbed, and then the features of the flatbed were strongly reminiscent of driveable space (stripe down the lane, and the ladders could be...

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