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  1. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If nothing has been omitted from BRK's 13F this time, it looks like the mystery investment(s) was/were Chevron, Marsh&Mclennan, Verizon: SEC FORM 13-F Information Table
  2. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I agree with what @generalenthu posted. The delta on these options should be so low that they have effectively no influence on the stock movement.
  3. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think they most likely learned their lesson with the M3. Besides, Shanghai 3 ramp went fine in terms of logistics. And I don't think any ramp will be as taxing on Tesla's logistics infrastructure in terms of percentage increase as the M3 was. If there are major logistics issues, that'd be a...
  4. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Extrapolating Q4: 720k Shanghai Y same ramp as Shanghai 3: 150k That means you only need another 130k from Berlin, Austin, faster Shanghai Y ramp, potential increase in demand for new S & X, Semi, further Shanghai 3 ramp, and/or further Fremont Y ramp to get 100% growth in 2021. Berlin looks...
  5. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Thank you! I reckon the biggest reason for this move is the fact that everybody who wanted to sell, got a pretty good chance to do so on S&P inclusion day. It once again should've further weeded out whatever 'weak longs' were left, and further strengthened the average conviction, and increased...
  6. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Thank you :) I'm not too unhappy with my prediction. Although to be fair, I predicted this kind of SP after the S&P dust settles. It is certainly very possible that this movement is still a part of that entire transformation of the float, but there is also some chance that it is not, and that...
  7. FrankSG

    trading

    No idea. I haven't really checked the stock for a few days. I had a lot of leaps from late 2019 to the S&P inclusion, as you know. I think it's pretty obvious that TSLA will never see another year like 2020 again, and although I think it could continue to rise slowly and steadily from $650...
  8. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Going to have coffee with him next week :) My real-estate agent in Singapore also happens to be a huge Tesla fan, and has ~90% of his portfolio in Tesla. And Singapore is usually number 4 on highest traffic countries on my blog, after US, Canada, UK. Lots of people love Tesla here. The store...
  9. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla's S&P 500 Inclusion Part 3: The Final Chapter
  10. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Was watching billions Season 5 Episode 6 just now, and noticed they're trading TSLA: Here's the clip (pause at 0:08):
  11. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    @JusRelax @MP3Mike @zach_ Who were the ones that looked at VOO's reported holdings at the end of this week and used it for some calculations? Can you point me to where you found it? This is what I found on Vanguard's website: And it has TSLA nearly perfectly balanced in accordance with the...
  12. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Macros very red (look at IWM) + Profit taking + Delta Hedging + Panic Selling imo.
  13. FrankSG

    trading

    Sold the final 4/7th for ~2x return before the drop to $650. IBKR wouldn't let me hold onto them past 3:45PM, and it felt it too bothersome to roll them over to next week, so I just bought stock.
  14. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Same. I sold them before it just dropped to $650, because IBKR told me I could not hold them until after 3:45PM.
  15. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I haven't had time to think about this. Too busy today talking to IBKR about holding ITM options expiring today until final minutes before close :rolleyes:
  16. FrankSG

    trading

    I'm not sure. It's my first time calling. But I plan to call them in ~20 minutes, about 90 minutes before the trades need to happen. No, I received the number from the regular trading desk.
  17. FrankSG

    trading

    Sold 3/7th of this position for an ~2.5x gain. Using it to cover tuition fees and living expenses for next year. I'm letting the remaining 4/7 ride for now. IBKR gave me an extension on liquidating this position (that is too large for me to exercise on margin) until 15:45. I'll either have to...
  18. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    2nd time in ~15 minutes. Somebody has fat fingers? So strange.
  19. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Let me add to this that the LOC orders will be filled at the same price as the cross happens. I tested this with some LOO (Limit on Open) orders today: Interestingly enough, the $670 LMT order did not get filled, so presumably there was inadequate liquidity.
  20. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think the prediction model in my blog is still the best way to estimate this.
  21. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It's 100k. Not sure why it says size 23x100 at the top. The trades on this tape are definitely not *100.
  22. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Actually, they have to be reported within 10 seconds.
  23. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I caught this big one just now. I wonder if this was a dark pool trade. Definitely a bit off of market price:
  24. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    IWM = Russell 2000 ETF Not showing what the other 3 colors are for some reason, but they are AAPL, MSFT, AMZN.
  25. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I have one position in $760s (a very large one), and a smaller one in $650s. I may decide I would like to hold them until late in the trading day. Especially the $760s, if the stock price is hovering around $760 or $765, I would likely prefer to hold them until a few minutes before close, and...
  26. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I was thinking this would be too costly, but I guess they'll only get liquidated if ITM, and if they're ITM, they should be cheaper to roll-over. If there's absolutely no way to reason with IBKR, I'll probably do this. Thank you!
  27. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Margin account yes, but I don't have any margin. Person on phone told me they'll liquidate them as early as 12:30 Chicago time :eek: I don't want them exercised. In total the options would cost ~4.5x my current account value to exercise. I'd just like them to not automatically exercise and...
  28. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I meant sell the options during the last 5 minutes of market hours, when the cross is taking shape. I don't think that strategy could work. The farthest OTM position is probably too large a number of contracts.
  29. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Can anyone who uses IBKR help me with this? I have 2 options positions expiring today which, if they end up in the money, I do not have the ability to exercise. However, I may want to hold these positions until minutes before market close, or even until after market close. Although I may sell...
  30. FrankSG

    trading

    I have a long position in $760s expiring today. I guess they'll probably end up OTM, but you can never know on a day like this. Even if the stock is well below $760 near close, I wouldn't rule out a closing cross squeeze. The plan is to potentially: 1) Place LOC orders > $760, for the amount of...
  31. FrankSG

    trading

    Not just FSD. I did some projections for next year's financials, and although the valuation would be very rich, I could see EPS of >$2 in Q2 if things go very well, which would mean >$8 on an extrapolated yearly basis, which at a P/E of 200x would be $1,600. I think it's unlikely to get to...
  32. FrankSG

    trading

    Limit-on-Close (LOC) Orders I mean, you could enter LOC orders, then exercise the options after if they get filled during the cross. Of course if you expect AH price and liquidity to be similar or higher, you could also (short) sell the stock AH, and exercise the options.
  33. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Market-on-Close (MOC) Orders - IBKR Unless they are going to use limit orders, they have to place them by 15:55, and can not take them back after.
  34. FrankSG

    trading

    Consider playing the closing cross. This is what I will do for my $760s if they are still OTM. I'll just enter LOC orders above $760. If they somehow get filled, I can exercise the options to cover the short position, and pocket the difference.
  35. FrankSG

    trading

    How do you get this as early as 3:50PM? I thought it wasn't available until 3:55PM?
  36. FrankSG

    trading

    What I previously stated was that I thought closer to $800 is more likely than closer to $600 (so $700+ more likely than $700-), and that there's a fair possibility of higher spikes, as well as higher settlement. I think I actually feel more bullish now than when I wrote the post. I think...
  37. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The way I understand it is that the market can move more than 10% in the final 5 minutes, it's just that the closing cross price is guaranteed to be within 10% of the market price upon close no matter what. It's complex, so I could be wrong, but that's how I understand it.
  38. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Investment Grade by 2025... maybe? Oh S&P... will you ever learn? :rolleyes:
  39. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The main impression I get from Rich is that the market basically leaves these things up to other market participants, and is simply hoping that enough front-running has happened. I personally feel strongly that it hasn't, and I believe Fact Checking talked on Twitter about the fact that Hedge...
  40. FrankSG

    trading

    @saniflash I went to bed around 2:15PM, but I'm very curious if you observed the closing cross today, and what you saw in terms of an imbalance, if any.
  41. FrankSG

    trading

    Stock would have to go to at least $800 before I'll consider, and I don't think I will tomorrow. I think it's more likely than not that the stock will run-up further next week. If it's at least $800, but I'd really prefer something more like $1,000, I'll consider selling $1,600 - $2,000 covered...
  42. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I could see Tesla doing that 2025 number next year, in 2021 o_O
  43. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There's pretty much zero premium on these actually. Maybe 10 or 20 cents. But it could also be profit taking from somebody who bought these right after announcement. Will be interesting to see if OI is higher or lower tomorrow.
  44. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There seems to be significant volume on DITM calls expiring tomorrow. I wonder if this could be index/benchmarked funds. They're not paying much of a time premium for these options. Volume at $420 strike for today is 979 contracts, or almost 100k shares worth. Not massive, but certainly not...
  45. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This one seems macro related, or at least boosted by macros. Overall markets are up alongside TSLA over the past 5-10 min, although TSLA is of course amplified as usual:
  46. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It's a little higher, but nothing crazy. The few times that there was clear buying, volume was somewhat high, but in between there were many prolonged periods just as quiet as most of yesterday. We're still not at 25M shares for the day. I'd guess that at this pace we might end up at volume of...
  47. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Thanks to @dww12 for the idea to compare TSLA to a couple of the other big S&P stocks. It's very clear that between 9:45 and 10:15 TSLA was being bought, while AAPL, MSFT, and AMZN faced downward pressure. 10:45 to 11:15AM is less obvious, but it looks like there could've been a correlation...
  48. FrankSG

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Darts, Tesla and the sad saga of picking stocks for the S&P 500
  49. FrankSG

    trading

    Was considering some 31Dec $750s during pre-market today. Picked some up as soon as I saw TSLA going up after 9:45AM. Didn't buy a huge amount, but just a couple for a decent price between 9:45AM and 10:00AM.
  50. FrankSG

    trading

    Same: Thanks so much for this in-depth tutorial. Super helpful!!

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