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Yeah, I'm not eager to embrace that. Swapping out 50 kWh at a time does not make sense to me, but if you need extra capacity for a week or or month, it can be worth renting it.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666955222000211 I'm not sure if we've discussed vertical bifacial solar before, but I think it is quite relevant to the Seba idea of superabundant power. This study compares 3 different ways of orienting solar panel. I-S, inclined south...

I do like that the range extender need not complicate the manufacture of the CT. They don't even need to be made in the same factory or delivered with the vehicle. Fewer factory options is better for high volume production.

I like the third party idea. Rental companies can compete with each other on cost and convenience. They also can buy and sell range extenders. Such a secondary market can lower the financial risk to buyers.

Will Tesla be renting out range extenders? Adding $16k to a 7% 60-month loan is $320/month. This is steep if you only need the extra range for a couple of months each year. Renting at $20/day plus $100 install/uninstall fee would be a pretty good deal for someone with occasional need.

Stock is starting to drop on cue. Edit, eh, not so bad, holding at $240.

Cybertruck delivers frozen yogurt.

https://x.com/EIAgov/status/1730230222719418468?s=20 Chart of the Day. Petroleum is becoming more than half of US carbon emissions. Sure, we need to keep shutting down coal plants, but we also need to crush petroleum emissions with EVs and we need to shrink gas emissions with more solar, wind...

Suitable music for this image below. Enjoy.

Go Frozen Yogurt

I'm inspired to open my own frozen yogurt shop. I even have a great name for it. Thanks, Elon!

So how does GM look as a short target? It's easy to view this "return of capital" as a desperate attempt to extract cash before insolvency sets in. From our perspective, any automaker that cannot make the transition to profitable EV making will not be a going concern for long. However, many...

Oh my God, Becky, look at her

Here's something I've been thinking about lately. Does nuclear power actually reduce the carbon intensity of the global economy. Consider the following stats about 30-year change from 1991 to 2021: Global Real GDP: up 138.6% Global Power Generation: up 131.3% Global Nuclear Pwr Gen: up 30.7%...

No. He's dead. I'm in a seminary, not a cemetery.

No, I'm in seminary now.

Hmm, there's green on the TSLA chart and it's going up. Is this normal?

https://x.com/CleanPowerDave/status/1729240122489471205?s=20 Yes, let's triple RE generation by 2030. I think this is pretty much in line with 2023 Investor Day presentation.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Slams-IEA-over-Moment-of-Truth-for-Oil.html Diplomacy!!! Ha, ha. If OPEC really believes the CCS will pay off big time, they are free to invest their own money in it. It's a portion of the 2.5% of investments outside of fossil fuels. Go...

Nice. I'm not sure where that poster gets his power. There are different retailers in the CAISO. Also can't rule out that a random poster might be confused or poorly informed.

I wonder if Tesla might be in a position to stock up. Will the lithium refinery have much storage capacity? Not only might this be a good trade for Tesla (hedging future spikes in lithium), but it can give lithium miners a little more confidence developing resources. That is, it helps avoid...

https://x.com/swhess15/status/1728970635609833863?s=20 This is an interesting exchange. Clearly there is enough solar in California to drive wholesale power prices down to around $0/MWh. Notice a lot of gas keeps generating (at a marginal loss) through the sunny day. I suspect this is so they...

Apparently EVs do lead to demand peaks. Petrol has been declining near 5% a year for the last couple of years. Diesel may be approaching that rate as well. It's down 15% from 2016 peak, but it seems to be picking up speed.

Seba's notion of superabundant power is that when the grids have enough wind and solar power to make it through the least abundant weak of the year, this implies generating a surplus pretty much most of the year. Batteries are there to smooth out power over about a week. The logic here makes...

Chart of the Day. I like the concept here. Y-axix indicates the number of years operation for an (average) EV to break-even with ICE. Measures essentially how much the fuel savings are needed to overcome the premium in sticker price. That's how you get to different alternatives depending on the...

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1727628016589692988.html This is a very nice thread from IEA setting out the basic issues for oil and gas companies. I know we've discussed this. Returning capital and shrinking out of business is one option. For those that want to try to stay relevant in the...

This was a helpful response. https://thediplomat.com/2023/08/chinas-ev-export-boom-is-bringing-southeast-asia-into-beijings-orbit/

This is very interesting. I'd to know what portion of China's exports are EVs. My hunch is that this dramatic rise is driven by EV. Even Tesla is exporting from China.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Rystad-Energy-Fossil-Fuel-Emissions-Will-Peak-Within-Two-Years.html So Rystad is predicting a 2025 peak for fossil fuel emissions.

https://news.yahoo.com/giant-batteries-drain-economics-gas-071607545.html This should not be much of a surprise. I think the pushback of financiers is key to substantial change. There is enough traction with batteries that it disrupts the certainty of payoff for new gas plants. It's not...

That's great. I can snort more coke.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Ford-Scales-Back-Capacity-Of-New-Battery-Plant-By-42.html Ford is scaling back its EV ambition. Battery plant was to have 35GWh cap in 2026, but is dialed back to 20GWh. Anybody know what their alternative supply might be? How is this not...

$1M is good for about $40k annual income in retirement.

Yeah, I'd love to see an intrepid reporter dig into this. So much of the financial media was buying his BS. To dig into Chanos's failings would likely expose the failings of press too.

Chanos is out of the game My thoughts turn to the journalists Who will feed them?

Do they still have the ball?

Oil and NG are down about 4.5% today. I suspect this kind of action still weighs on Tesla.

Hmm, the link works for me. I agree. It's a hard ask. It may take more than a generation to transition. Gen Z is more receptive than older generations. Perhaps their children and grandchildren will continue in this trajectory.

This is a little off-topic, but achieving peak-meat bears a lot in common with other peaks we discuss here. Let's have respectful discussion here. But where we disagree, we may discover the sorts of challenges many have with transitioning to a renewable and EV future...

Ring, ring. It's the 2010s, they want their capital back.

Yeah, it make sense that the 2.4 increase is largely Covid-19 recovery. It's been frustrating how it confuses the structural issues. I would like to think that 0.9 is a more normative level of growth for a while. In the long run, I think that clean energy will be higher productivity than...

Net job creation (in energy) is boosted by following a more aggressive path to confronting climate change. Net job creation by 2030 is about 6 million on the basis of current policies, but jumps to 17 million if we accelerate to a 1.5C path. In many countries there is a strong connection...

Clean energy job creation is outpacing fossil jobs. 36 million clean energy workers to 32 million fossil, a 9:8 ratio. Compare this to the investment ratio, $1.8 clean to $1 fossil. So clean job creation is driven by much stronger capital flows than fosll job creation. General advice for...

This chart is helpful for understanding emissions in China. Basically, coal dominates the question of growth or decline. Oil emissions have been declining, but clearly not enough to overcome whatever coal is doing.

Also, China looks to enter structural decline in carbon emissions in 2024. This is mostly around solar and wind holding coal at bay. But any slowing of oil demand in China also helps the move into structural decline.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/IEA-Raises-Oil-Demand-Outlook-For-2023-And-2024.html We frequently react to downward adjustments to oil demand forecasts. Today we have an increase to consider. IEA is bumping up there 2023 demand increase from 2.3 mbpd to 2.4 mbpd to hit 102...

I'm becoming concerned about the high delinquency rates for auto loan, low savings rates, and high mortgage interest rates. It seems like we could have a new mortgage crisis like 2009. A $400,000 30-year mortgage today at 8% is a monthly payment of $2935, but just 2 years ago at 3% the payment...

Looks like Exxon can keep poking holes in the earth, but now without extracting carbon.

Chart of the Day I like the framing here. In India, solar with enough battery capacity to store 50% of generated energy is competitive with solar. But this is just in terms of average cost. The stored solar power can be discharged during the hours that would be most profitable for coal. Coal...

It may be helpful to express the above in annual growth rates. Increasing clean energy investments 2.6x over the next 7 years is 14.6% per year. If fossil investment drops to 0 over these 7 years, total energy investment is up 1.67x or 7.6% per year. If fossil investment remains constant, total...