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  1. Discoducky

    Supercharger - Kalispell, MT (permit Feb 2023, 12 V3 stalls)

    All we have is a 14-50 and J1772. The Tesla destination charger at The Red Lion is allowing us to charge. It is powered at 208v\48A, so should only be a 3 hour wait.
  2. Discoducky

    Supercharger - Kalispell, MT (permit Feb 2023, 12 V3 stalls)

    We are stuck in Kalispell. It sucks the supercharger isn't available as coming from Glacier national park it is essential. And now we are dealing with level 2 chargers that don't work. 63 miles of range left and 127 needed to reach St. Regis supercharger
  3. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    FYI, I've decided to mainly use Twitter for the foreseeable future vs using this thread and @adiggs "be the house" thread, largely due to trolls and other difficult posters. I've had to ignore so many that it hurts. I'll come here from time to time, but it is just not the place that makes me...
  4. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ah, that explains it, looked in my 2021 Model 3 and it is there! 2017 P100DL+ no bueno.
  5. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I looked for this in 2022.44.30.10 but can't find it. Anyone have this? This is super cool if implemented and I see how Tesla can calc this, but it is still super cool data.
  6. Discoducky

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Can someone explain this? Puts seem way too high as it isn't triple witching...
  7. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What are the top things separating yours and James GAAP forecast? Your non-GAAP is very close.
  8. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Is there a source, that anyone can point to, that talks about when and where the Joe and Elon Giga Semi announcement will be made? Is it today or tomorrow, what time, Giga Nevada or Austin? My Google foo is failing me... Sawyer's post references the SOTU address Joe gave, so I assume this is...
  9. Discoducky

    Help Fight the FUD

    Sam covers this FUD in the video below and then I just did a search that came up with this...amazing
  10. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    To that end, could a warning message be added to this thread at the top to not post about banned topics and possibly guide folks to the proper threads please? (maybe there is a better idea?) In all my years on this forum, it has become very difficult to consume this thread as of late (aka...
  11. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Found it, photo illustration mastery! For folks that don't know, photo illustrations are digital fakes.
  12. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    In short, the mission isn't a sprint it is a marathon. The mission is better served by making a dedicated robotaxi vehicle as opposed to buying back used vehicles.
  13. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'd think they'd need to beef up the Model 3 chassis to handle that incredible amount of torque. So yeah, I'd put my hat in the ring for Plaid Model 3 if they go to F/R Gigacasts. Imagine the margins on that puppy!!! That could be a mass market track car. Maybe Plaid S keeps the 0-60 crown...
  14. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Happy to see it in production! And yes, Tesla doesn't fab their chips, neither does nVidia fab their own chips. And I get BYD has ramped up to BEVs quite a bit and I congratulate them for that, however, from an engineering point of view, I'd like to see it in production and get torn down...
  15. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Let's say we pull apart a BYD, how many of the chips are branded BYD? Are the boards branded BYD? How much of the software to they write? Can they OTA the brake firmware? Pedal monitor? EPAS? Body controls? Suspension ECU? If any of this starts to become known, then I'd detract my statement.
  16. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    All of this innovative engineering change has been accomplished through a vision. Without the vision, it all dies on the vine (see several historical auto/tech references and look back at years of CES widgets/starts) where good tech died in its infancy without an enduring and cohesive vision to...
  17. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I don't need to think or type anymore other than ask ChatGPT questions... Q: how much range do traditional trucks lose when towing? A: The range of a traditional truck can be significantly reduced when towing, as the added weight and drag of the trailer can greatly increase fuel consumption...
  18. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ryan interviews Franz! I'm listening to it now...
  19. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The used car market is imploding...get your popcorn!
  20. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This to me is quite silly, but I know people fall victim to this kind of short-term cognitive bias thinking vs long-term objective thinking about TCO (Total Cost of Ownership). Owning and driving Tesla's over the past decade for me have been leaps-and-heaps lower TCOs than anything else in...
  21. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Why would a company lower prices when it has a ton of market share (BEV market share, not overall, in most places) *AND* has feature/value dominance? Fear? Uncertainty? Doubt? (insert your bias here with many handwringing posts) Tesla is following its stated mission and the equation is simple...
  22. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Here's the source data: Consumer Price Index Summary - 2022 M12 Results New and used car prices are interesting...which is new car prices down 0.1% m/m and used car prices down 2.9% m/m (both seasonally adjusted)
  23. Discoducky

    FSD discussion

    I'd move all these posts to the FSD thread if I could...and reply in that thread.
  24. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That ship sailed many years ago...for instance: What company will be in 2nd place in about 5 years? I have no idea as 2nd place will most likely be so far behind, scooping up the market scraps with everyone else, it will most likely be a tie between several different companies having slivers of...
  25. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Goal One: TWh scale battery production (100X growth for electric vehicles). Need 10TWhs to transition the global fleet to electric. 150TWhs need to transition all vehicles of all types to electric (average vehicle lasts 15 years) Goal Two: More affordable cells. Cut the cost/cell in...
  26. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    In case anyone is wondering if Warren Buffet (aka Berkshire Hathaway) will invest in Tesla. BH owns the 2nd largest auto dealership network in the US. If that little tidbit doesn't put the discussion to bed, I don't know what will. https://www.berkshirehathawayautomotive.com/locations/index.htm
  27. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    And then built a feature to stop this from happening... https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-autopilot-prevents-40-crashes-day-sua/ The below was the crash that inspired the spec for wrong pedal press in 2015. This was only about 2 miles from my former house prior to moving to Fremont to work for...
  28. Discoducky

    FSD discussion

    AP does not have access to that much braking force, that is reserved for AEB code and the lane change seems too abrupt to be AP (which is much slower). The more likely scenario is the driver applied full brakes. The weirdness is why put on your blinker first? Even if this was a hard brake...
  29. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I listened for the first ~80 minutes and didn't hear any revelations, but it went on much longer.... Edit: I should clarify that I'm still at 50%+ margins for MP in 2023...includes IRA madness
  30. Discoducky

    FSD discussion

    Is this recent? (10.69 or later) I couldn't find any other recent videos on YT.
  31. Discoducky

    FSD discussion

    Is it possible for you to post video clips? That would greatly help. And possibly help Tesla to diagnose your issues.
  32. Discoducky

    FSD discussion

    Feel free to post another video and we'll see what changes you make :) Chris, Chuck and Omar have fabulous videos!
  33. Discoducky

    FSD discussion

    A tunnel is possibly the easiest place to run FSD. OccNet is on vacation, just need lanes net. In all seriousness, it is actually very easy for OccNet to map this space.
  34. Discoducky

    FSD discussion

    He has a long history of both having engineering rigor and having very strong opinions. With that being said, this video is highly inconclusive and I hope he posts more videos. Looks like someone posted a comment that breaks down his issues ;)
  35. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Do y'all know him? Inventor of Keras, foundational to TF, competes with PyTorch, what ChatGPT is built on...can you see where this is going?
  36. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Probably confusing vector space with single stack. Easy mistake
  37. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    TL;DR - My first impression was that the calcs were at the very top end of bullish and unbelievable and after doing the math it seems 60% at the end of 2023 is well within reach. Longer version - Hearing 70% margins sound extraordinary and I nearly gagged. My second impression was largely the...
  38. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This rabbit hole goes pretty deep... This doc goes into great detail about bonus PTCs (Production Tax Credits) and ITCs (Investment Tax Credits) with regard to steel from the US to sustainable energy that comes from "low income" groups. When these are stacked up the totals are kinda nuts...
  39. Discoducky

    FSD discussion

    Mobileye saying they'll do highway on/off ramp in 2026.
  40. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Price raises = Bad? Price cuts = Bad? Tesla's mission = ? Regardless of what anyone thinks, the mission is being fulfilled. There was always meant to be competition and it appears that might be happening in China. Q1 500k+ is looking in the bag, tons of margin, supply chain/logistic costs...
  41. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    We, as a forum, as this thread is home to great discussion, need to continue to discuss and discern what is happening with demand. It could be for several reasons that prices are being cut. Traditionally it is due to demand for normal products in a normal market. We are NOT in a normal market...
  42. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I see the price cuts and wonder... What is the competition? BYD? If so, what are their margins What is the current gov sponsored rebates? This helps me discern what is going on....
  43. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I feel like @petit_bateau should make at least a few near term predictions (of some kind of tolerance band) to help understand what is being said. It should be apparent to folks that TE is going to grow massively in this next quarter earnings. How much? Therein lies the prediction. Maybe...
  44. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Caution: Electrek But this is cool! https://electrek.co/2023/01/04/tesla-trademark-electric-motors-boats-airplanes/
  45. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    And to be clear, not only do I want them to succeed in BEVs, I hope they start breaking out the BEV PnLs as that would indicate they are serious and on a path to profitability.
  46. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    They sell mainly/mostly/predominately ICE cars. Did you know this before you posted?
  47. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This video, goes in-depth and covers the entire stack. For engineers interested in TE and VPP it is a must listen/grasp. For this thread, it is must understand that writing something like this is not terribly hard, but it is non-trivial, time consuming and ultimately NOT something another...