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My wife sent me this article about a UBI study: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2023/12/07/1217478771/its-one-of-the-biggest-experiments-in-fighting-global-poverty-now-the-results-ar For me at least, enthralling.

This dynamic - the transformation of the S&P 500 to the S&P 10 (or 7, or whatever very small number you care to draw the cut line at) is causing me to devalue historical comparisons of performance vs. the index. Historically the S&P 500 has been used as a good proxy / measure of the US economy...

A -260p is going to have a high delta and low time value. Winning with that will come from a share price move in your favor (rather than just waiting for time to elapse) - that's pretty aggressive :) That being said I've used somethign like that to win bigly in the past. Pre-pre-split - I...

"Better" is a broad idea! There is $ gain. There is % gain. There is stomach acid. There is the energy and research that goes into picking that position. There is the ongoing energy (and stomach acid) of watching and making the follow on decisions to manage the position. How precisely do you...

That sounds like we've had that sentiment expressed in both countries now. Sure sounds like the concern isn't for people that work at Tesla - the concern is for people that work at the union headquarters. I don't know anything about world union history. We did cover some of the history of...

Or, I know - they could sell the truck much cheaper so that scalpers buy and flip the trucks for $120k, thereby transfering $40k that could have been Tesla earnings into $40k worth of earnings for flippers. As long as there is demand that exceeds supply, while working to ramp supply as quickly...

A couple of ways that I see this. 1) One of the findings from the Innovator's Dilemma is that near the end of an incumbent's dominant position in a market the company goes through a phase of record profit, though probably not record revenue. The dynamic identified has to do with the innovator...

I've been thinking about this for awhile. I've got some weird ideas - the main thing I've concluded is that is the advent of "approximately zero marginal cost energy". The internet brought us "approximately zero marginal cost communication", and you can see what that's done for the world of...

Not-a-mod here. However - this page of the thread has been all about NVDA, MSFT, and stuff-not-TSLA. I don't mind - I really don't - the occasional foray out and about. I think we can all agree though that those other topics aren't the topic of this thread. Heck - you were even probably...

There is a %OTM that some sites calculate for us - I don't know that calculation. From the original options education they made the point that you can approximate it using delta. So a .16 delta option is priced to have a 16% chance of finishing ITM (.84 chance of finish OTM). That chance OTM...

Ordinarily you'll actively close the 2 positions I think. You can let short and long calls go to expiration together and they should offset. However a short call going to expiration will yield a sale of shares, not an exercise of a long call, to provide the shares. EDIT: If you don't have...

I'm surprised I haven't seen any mention - there was a small throwaway line in the most recent earnings report that the supercharger network was profitable. I don't know that it wou https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/IR/TSLA-Q3-2023-Update-3.pdf By my reckoning this...

Insightful as always! Thanks

Completely with you on this. I have dabbled a bit with 1-3 month cc's and I actually like their dynamic. Its just that the setup isn't right for them very often, but when it comes along you can get a relatively large amount of premium at a great strike. I sold some Jan '24 350s a few months...

I dipped my toes in the water, using leaps to back cc (aka poor man's covered call). I decided, fairly quickly, that I didn't like the dynamic. The fundamental problem is that leaps don't move as fast as the share price does, and can move much more slowly than the short call (delta goes higher...

The ps - that's why I don't roll closer to the money at the same expiration any more. I used to do that as well, and most of the time I'd pick up a bit extra. Maybe 1/3rd more over what i started with. It was never a lot, but it also wasn't trivial. The problem was that too often, which...

Only 700 behind - I'm totally not clueless :eek:

For me this has been kind of flying under the radar - any guesses what impact on the stock market in general, and TSLA in particular, from the US government shutting down (at least partially) on Friday (or Saturday) when the current funding runs out? Any bets on whether the House will actually...

Worth noting is that the scale is different, but this is what happened to the Oil futures fund (SCO?) a year or two back when barrels of oil were momentarily -$38 (yes - people were receiving $38/bbl of oil in order to take delivery of bbls of oil). Everybody in the market knew that SCO needed...

Closed my -190p expiring this Friday when shares were ~224, closing price .11. 90% gain for a 1 or 2 trading day position, and now that cash is ready to open new puts on a pull back. Soonest I'd open a new put position is tomorrow. Opened -240c expiring next Friday (11/24) at 1.80. Pretty...

At least for me its an easy call - if I'm rolling, then its a position I'm trying to rescue, and that means I want the biggest strike improvement I can get while still collecting a credit. Mentally I'm either going to earn all of the strike improvement eventually, or I'll just be taking a week...

FYI - members have forever edit privileges. Awhile back I decided I was getting sufficient value from this thread, much less the site, that I looked into site membership. Very affordable, and the primary benefit I get (besides the good karma) is the ability to edit my mistakes like those...

I took the .01 early close for my 205 puts expiring today. If we happen to get a late day swoon then I can just buy the shares that I want. I also have the option available to sell new puts should that later day swoon happen. Of course the most likely outcome is that nothing meaningful...

Any bets on how many of those ULA launches get performed by SpaceX due to ULA delays? :) I figure there has to be some internal mechanism for moving launches back and forth due to lack of performance or similar. I realize its not a last minute choice as the hardware to connect to the launcher...

Yeah - "hydrogen" seems like an umbrella term to me, either for technology and materials that don't exist, or for some other chemical formulation than H2. Ammonia, Methane, I don't think H2O works all that well :) But something mixed in with the hydrogen to stabilize it at least a little bit...

Closed my 230cc expiring this week for .06. In 1.50, out .06 give or take, and am ready to sell a new batch of cc for next week, but won't do so today unless we get a late day spike back to 220. Also used the down day to open 190 puts for next week at 1.14. My ideal outcome is that this...

I love these sideways days. I'll have a heaping helping please!

Ahh -- good question! One of my trading rules is that I don't open a replacement position the same day that I close a winning position. It's a bit broader than that, but the idea is that a good day and time for closing a trade, also tends to be a relatively bad day for opening a new trade. So...

A big part of my decision making around this includes the absolute amount of money remaining to earn. If I opened a $2k position ($2k credit received), and now I'm at .10 and have $120 left to earn, how badly do I want to keep this position open to earn that last $120? This is a pretty common...

not-advice I always close my DOTM options before expiration. Even if I'm paying .02 to do so - if they go to expiration, there is always a small possibility of after hours assignment. When DOTM that possibility is close enough to zero that I'm giving up .02 and I know it. But I'm also...

I like those strikes even better. Those are already at my guard rails, or really close, and wouldn't need as much of a roll should either be pressured. I have long said (like a decade worth) that part of Elon's brilliance is that he doesn't expend energy trying to tell people what they should...

I've got 230 cc for this Friday and I'm feeling good about them. My version of feeling good is mostly the feeling that if we dart towards that share price then I'll roll 1 or many weeks to get the strike up to 250 or 260, and I think that's easily doable. Meanwhile I've added 205 strike puts...

What I expect you'll find - rolling at first hint of challenge will minimize the number of losing trades while also minimizing the number of winning trades (assuming one continues to roll until winning). Waiting for expiration will be more driven by your ability to predict that week's closing...

It's a supply / demand observation. If we simplify the investing world down to bonds and stocks, then the observation is that the total amount of money invested between the two is somewhat stable, and significant movement of the money in bonds over to stock will lower bond prices and increase...

That sort of big move is thankfully rare, but is very much something to be prepared for. I made a huge mistake when shares went to $400 - I only saw the moon in my sights, and didn't think about "what if we reverse to $300". My trading rules / guidelines wouldn't have kept me out of this...

I found a website / app a year or 2 back that enabled me to design a trading system, with rules, that would run that back over 10 years worth of TSLA data. I found a couple of problems implementing my testing. I went looking for the website and name, but I think I've gotten rid of that info...

I used to use .16. I've evolved to the point that I mostly don't look at delta / %POP / %OTM - its more of a feel thing. That being said I prefer the emotions from being further OTM (.08 to .13 delta?) over the higher premiums from being closer. In the specific instance of 220 calls and my...

Couple of things I do. First is that I don't hold to .01, which is usually expiration day. Once I've reached 90% profit (and actually more like 67% profit), then I close it out. At 90% I've found there is very little money left to earn in one of these positions, but the risk of a big move...

Nice thing about a long term buy and hold view of the company - buying today at 202, or last week at 230 (I did some of that), or next week at any price between 160 and 240 doesn't actually matter at all. Well - it doesn't if you share something similar to my own view on the share price ($4000...

With this outlook you might consider not reading this thread. I'm sure it'll be entertaining, which is its own good reason to read :D, but we've also got an outlook and activity that can't help but keep today's share price top of mind. A big part of what made buy and hold work so well for me...

You can focus on the company instead of the company's stock. It's "easy" to be right over the long haul about a company. My first and second 10x stock is Tesla, and then Tesla. I have different needs today - back then I was an easy buy and hold (2013 to today). The fact I was buying and...

If we post 13x share price, then I'll probably be back to 95/5 shares to cash (against my target of 50/50). Could be an interesting year or so waiting for the recovery with all those shares ....

No change to my own long term thesis. 10x the ATH by 2030 is my simplistic view of things. I think it highly unlikely we go that far by 2025, but I also wouldn't be shocked. The lower margins is something that might be here forever, between competition coming in a decade or so, plus Elon and...

The things you say are true (politics is tightly intertwined, no clearer example of contemporary imperialism, USA reaction). No disagreement from me. However what I look for in this thread is primarily the ongoing developments of the war itself, along with analysis people have regarding the...

Thank you for the prompt and your moderation of the thread @Right_Said_Fred . First thing I point out whenever this comes up, and as you also point out, this is our thread. Its definitely not "my" thread :) As a group, we make of it what we want. The short summary (you can skip the rest :D)...

An observation about this - specifically regarding Elon beign less vocal on Twitter (I agree, at least regarding topics other than Tesla / SpaceX / Boring / etc...) - where does the extra car sale come from? I'm sure he could have helped at least a few people more WANT to buy a car. The...

With shares in the 222 to 223 range, I've taken my initial action to take advantage of this move. I entered today much too close to 90% cash than I like - I've got a longer term target of more like 50/50 cash and shares (or leaps). Thinking in quarters - I've added shares around 223 to bring...

I'm finding it difficult not to open any new positions. I had some 200 strike cc assigned on Friday, leaving me close to 100% cash and sitting on the sideline. I really want to start some new positions today, but my intent is that absent a significant move, I'll be waiting for earnings and...

At least in plenty of wargames I've played, the defender gets a large advantage over the offense. As a result the ideal circumstance is to be on the attack strategically, while on the defense tactically. In a game it might be rushing a unit ahead to some defensible location that the other side...

Yeah- like that :)