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  1. SageBrush

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Westerners, and I suspect the US in particular, oppose sanctions that would make their daily lives more expensive. This is rationalized as 'not harming Western economic ability to aid UKR.' Maybe so, but then these same people see the effect on prices in Russia and minimize its utility...
  2. SageBrush

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    The media is reporting that Biden slapped another list of sanctions on Russia in response to the Navalny death/murder. UKR was not enough justification ?
  3. SageBrush

    BYND Beyond Meat out of main

    Interesting! And predictable. Beyond Meat (BM) are in so many words acknowleging that synthetic protein synthesis by itself is not a market winner. 'Meat' eaters want blood in their protein. Both lentils and mushrooms have hemoglobin analogues. I've always thought of myself as hemoglobin...
  4. SageBrush

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I think it is a fair guess that Russia delayed releasing the body specifically to reduce the chance of detection.
  5. SageBrush

    What are your home electricity rates?

    It is true because the utilities have prevented it. How convenient
  6. SageBrush

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Or simply for entertainment
  7. SageBrush

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I'll guess thw imperialistic motivation stems from the territorial waters The Chinese are famous for buiding artificial islands for much the same reasons.
  8. SageBrush

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    We'll see if 'putin' gets me banned.
  9. SageBrush

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    100% Asking those low-lifes to resign is like asking pigs to wear lipstick. They get very annoyed, and they still stink.
  10. SageBrush

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I've been stuck by the Russian statement about Navalny, that he died from 'sudden death syndrome.' The physician side of me says 'that is a BS statement.' My Western oriented, more political side wonders at the Russian meaning of the statement. Could it mean 'no information will be offered,'...
  11. SageBrush

    Model Y purchase

    If, while waiting for your car to be delivered, Tesla offered a discount on new car sales, would you expect that discount ? Anyway, like the poster above, I would be paying attention to *what* was done in service
  12. SageBrush

    Green Hydrogen

    10 years ago H2 cars were already a poor wager that informed people knew to stay away from, even with the Japanese and US Gov support of R&D. Since then battery density has improved 50%, cost per kWh of cells has dropped 10x, and charging has improved 5x. On the H2 side, fuel cost has increased...
  13. SageBrush

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    If so, they proved that forced separation at birth is traumatic to mice .Is this the five steps backwards approach to science ? They call that a controlled experiment ?
  14. SageBrush

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Indeed. DNA post translational processing (AKA epigenetics) has been known about a long time. So now it's a grant fad. What is it with psychologists and their pre-occupation with torturing mice ? The young mice grew up with their mothers, I presume ? This would be parental education, not...
  15. SageBrush

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Because it lands on fertile soil. E.g., trumpers are not particularly biased against Russia because Trump is a Putin admirer.
  16. SageBrush

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I'm not of any help with details, so I'll just voice my opinion that political compromise is ALWAYS a mixture of carrot and stick. The 120 EU MP's are about 1/6 of parliament, nominally not anywhere near enough to make a difference but I'll guess that Hungary viewed them as the vocal minority in...
  17. SageBrush

    Tesla sales rep told me my order will not be delivered or honored since price increased

    IIRC from my Tesla order in Nov 2023, Tesla will honor a hold for up to two weeks. If the customer does not remove the hold in that time and complete the order, the order is cancelled and the customer forfeits the reservation money. Tesla changes policy frequently, but usually to be more...
  18. SageBrush

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My gut reaction (READ: only speculation) is that the CATL equipment is prior generation. Apparently good enough for what Tesla wants to use it for. I'm not sure, but it might end up being the same result via substitution if it enables more domestic pack production to go into EV production
  19. SageBrush

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I noticed that too :) The article says that they model for 60% of energy to be solar and 40% wind so that would be the equivalent of 1.66x their PV, or 747 GW Not mentioned in the article but the key enabler there is super high voltage DC long distance transmission
  20. SageBrush

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Nice perspective. Electricity is about 1/5 of total world energy I periodically do something similar, in terms of worldwide energy consumption discounted by present day clean enerey contribution and CAGR assumptions. I usually end up calculating ~ 20 years for the transition. For context, 10...
  21. SageBrush

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Lobbying money is the tip of the iceberg
  22. SageBrush

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I don't read it that way. The military industrial complex is not interested in a short, decisive war. To maximize profits, they would be most keen on a drawn out war that does not put pressure on them to invest in new production. So long as their present industrial capacity is maxed out and they...
  23. SageBrush

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I think it is clearly both. Politicians in the US are bought. Period And the military industrial complex is extremely powerful in the USA
  24. SageBrush

    What are your home electricity rates?

    No You are calculating the average cost per kWh, when you are probably interested in the marginal cost per kWh (weight averaged across any price tiers you may cross.) Here is the problem: Say you want to know how much it costs to fuel your EV, and you know how many kWh the EV consumes each...
  25. SageBrush

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    This link says that about 60% of Russian oil and gas exports are from Baltic seaports, and that the two targeted by UKR this week are the two major sites. If correct, and UKR can keep them offline, that sounds like a massive blow to the Russian war machine. Best news I've read in quite some time.
  26. SageBrush

    What are your home electricity rates?

    These are demand charges, and are $6/kW over 3 kW (NOT per kWh) Although you do not say, demand is typically measured in 15 minute intervals. The peak demand during any 15 minute interval sets the additional charge for the month. Example: Say you pull 6 kW during a demand day for at least 15...
  27. SageBrush

    What are your home electricity rates?

    Looking at your bill and including the $11 you posted later for taxes and 'other fees', your charging cost is about 16¢ a kWh ** all included, not too far off the US average. It has been true for a long time in most US markets that the dirtier the electricity, the cheaper the kWh cost to the...
  28. SageBrush

    Expired 2023 MYP for sale [Expired]

    That was true last year. From Jan 2024 the dealer (Tesla) can handle the tax credit and the tax liability question goes away
  29. SageBrush

    Expired 2023 MYP for sale [Expired]

    A new car is ~ $45k after Fed tax credit. If I was thinking of buying your car, I would approach it the same way I would a Hertz rental, meaning high likelihood of abusive driving.
  30. SageBrush

    How much $ to retire and how to fund your lifestyle in retirement

    Well said. I try and remember that options can serve two purposes: to leverage a bet, or to hedge a bet. I consider the former a fool's errand, and the latter a reasonable idea given the right circumstances.
  31. SageBrush

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Excellent idea.
  32. SageBrush

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    If this news is a few days old, perhaps it explains the high helicopter kill the other day. UKR battle tactics are brilliant. Rather than face the bear in direct combat, it makes a lot more sense to first stomp on its toes and throw dirt in its eyes.
  33. SageBrush

    CO2/warming correlation - how to respond?

    Exactly. In fact, the global mean surface air temperature is ~ 9F cooler than the mean surface ocean temperature
  34. SageBrush

    CO2/warming correlation - how to respond?

    He is conflating heat with temperature, conflating kinetic energy with radiation, and does not realize that water itself reflects radiation where it gets trapped by greenhouse gas molecules. In short, he is FOS, just like every other pseudo-erudite AGW denialist
  35. SageBrush

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    All those extra hours of darkness. What's a drone to do ?
  36. SageBrush

    California Utilities Plan All Out War On Solar, Please Read And Help

    Some context would help. E.g., Florida's DeSantis took $20,000,000 ($20M) from one individual named Robert Bigelow for his 2024 Pres campaign. I think if you looked up the donations of Big Pharma and Oil industries to politicians you might found them to be eye openers.
  37. SageBrush

    Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

    I've understood the underlying problem seeking a solution is how to deal with multiple consecutive days with inadequate clean power. CASE, hydro, pumped hydro, and gravity are some of the proposed solutions. Low cost per kWh is the alt battery solution, albeit with trade-offs like size, weight...
  38. SageBrush

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I gather it is not possible, but given the chance I would kick Hungary out of the EU and NATO and watch idly by as they were invaded by Russia
  39. SageBrush

    Electrify Everything

    (my bold) How much lower ?
  40. SageBrush

    Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

    Nice aesthetics. My first thought was 'pretty much resistance heat,' but the design sure is interesting. Am I right in thinking that the surface gets hot ? I'm mostly wondering if paper can catch fire if it comes in contact for long periods, and whether they can injure a too curious cat.
  41. SageBrush

    Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

    Fantastic Please explain. Do you mean a small resistance heater ?
  42. SageBrush

    Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

    I hear you. If people would time shift it would be better for everybody. But without deeply unpopular price signals, in aggregate people are too lazy to voluntarily do so. You are the exception. When EVs are a massive storage resource, the need for time shifting demand will be highly mitigated.
  43. SageBrush

    Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

    Pardon me for quoting myself -- I want to expand on Residential EV storage My home has PV, and we have two EVs with a combined 140 kWh of batteries. We bought the Tesla to have a long drive option for which the Chevy Bolt is not a great option. But for 95+ percent of our days, we drive about...
  44. SageBrush

    Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

    'Net' zero is too fuzzy a notion to be useful to me. I'm much more comfortable with either total annual emissions (what actually matters), or reduction from some arbitrary baseline. My WAG is that for non-extreme climates, where local complementary clean resources have been well developed, 4...
  45. SageBrush

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    (My Bolding) Crimea. Anywhere else ?
  46. SageBrush

    Electrify Everything

    Some CA utilities (IOUs for the most part, I think) are expensive, some utilities in CA are much cheaper. I saw what it did to consumers who refuse or cannot change their TOU behaviour.
  47. SageBrush

    Electrify Everything

    Not the state, your IOU And only cheaper for Prius drivers compared to EV drivers without rooftop or community solar
  48. SageBrush

    Wh/km (or mi) / range grossly mis-advertised, if not fraudulent... srsly.

    I also think about Li plating related to supercharging, and even during L2 because my pack can get down to -5C and I have 10 kW charging at home. My solution is to not charge over 70% SoC on those days
  49. SageBrush

    Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

    I estimate that gross profit on a Tesla car is somewhere in the range of $7,500 - $10,000. Tesla 'invested' ~ 75 kWh, which works out to 10¢ per Wh on the low end. This is 2.5x the gross profit margin I estimated for a large scale battery storage business. This reinforces the idea that Tesla...
  50. SageBrush

    Tesla Extended Service Agreement (ESA)

    I agree with this. Moreover, PTC heaters and heat pumps just might become items that can be sourced from a market that sells parts from totaled cars. Now that Tesla is a high volume manufacturer for the Model Y and Model 3, I'm optimistic that the Tesla premium will go away