Search results

Tesla boat confirmed ;)

Found this on Reddit: 23 Chinese EV companies are gone. Let's see what legacy car companies will cease to exist.

Any news? Stock is climbing 7 $ within 10 minutes

Yeah, it already makes a difference:

Gross margin is really difficult to estimate this quarter: Price decreases should have a strong negative effect Higher utilization of Berlin+Austin positive effect Less delayed orders with lower prices -> positive effect Positive effects from Euro/USD and Euro/CNY increases since Europe...

Nio is cutting their Q4 delivery outlook citing Covid issues: https://ir.nio.com/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/nio-inc-prudently-adjusts-fourth-quarter-2022

It is probably hard to say what the underlying effect of Covid is. If we look at the overall NEV market, insured units increased compared to last week: China PV 12-18 Dec insured units NEV: 162K China PV 19-25 Dec insured units NEV: 182K At the same time, we see a decline for Tesla: 12-18...

I adjusted my delivery forecast for Q4 due to China demand concerns and my gross margin assumptions due to rebates in China, US and Europe. Overall, I think that my forecast is really cautious and hopefully too low on margins and deliveries. Right now, I assume production is 145k in Fremont...

Let's do some number-crunching: We probably all know people arguing that Tesla should be valued like other car makers. A typical argument goes like this: Tesla only sells 10% of Toyota and the stock should trade at 10% of Toyota's value. Well, this completely neglects the difference between...

Model 3/Y US new car inventory dropping fast with 7,500 $ discount: Model 3: Model Y:

Just found this website tracking Tesla US used and new inventory (except for duplicate vehicles at the same place): https://tesladata.mattjung.net/ Model 3 new inventory is already declining for some time: Model Y new inventory starts to decline with new discount: For S/X new inventory is...

Let's look at a numerical example: Assume Tesla is 10% of an index. Now, Tesla falls 50% and all other components of the index do not move. Index decreases to: 90*1+10*0,5=95 Tesla share of index is now: 5/95=5,26% Let's say Tesla was worth 200 $ and the index 2000 $. (Tesla 10% weight) The...

40 new Megapacks in Belgium

Looking at the YTD figures for premium SUV sales in China, I would rather worry about other companies than Tesla: Table from Moneyball:

Drop in pre-market likely because of this article by Bloomberg:

Seems like the additional China incentive worked well:

11,670 insured units in China. History: Tesla MIC 31 Oct-6 Nov: 11,195 Tesla MIC 7-13 Nov: 13,939 Tesla MIC 14-20 Nov: 14,366 Tesla MIC 21-27 Nov: 16,121 Tesla MIC 28 Nov-4 Dec: 11,670 China insured units from 31 Oct-4 Dec: 67,291 units Retail sales in October: 17,200 units Quarter-to-date...

Should be wholesale MIC (export + retail sales). Great numbers and a new record!

Seems like a link for today is available: https://livestream.tesla.com/ 8 pm ET 5 pm PT 2 am Germany :rolleyes:

Troy does not expect a price decrease in China for Q4 anymore.

For those interested: A quick update with the new data: Tesla MIC 31 Oct-6 Nov: 11,195 Tesla MIC 7-13 Nov: 13,939 Tesla MIC 14-20 Nov: 14,366 Tesla MIC 21-27 Nov: 16,121 China insured units in November (incl. one day in October) so far: 55,621 units (Prior record retail sales in the second...

Gary Black posted the note from Adam Jonas yesterday evening on Twitter: Interestingly, Adam has a 330$ price target while he assumes almost no EPS growth in 2023.

Thanks for pointing this out. I agree that there are additional revenue streams after the initial hardware sale. Personally, I am quite excited about VPP and autobidder from an earnings perspective. However, $ 4 billion seems a bit high to me. Just as an example, I increased the number of...

You can find monthly data here: Wiki - Tesla Europe Registration Stats For Norway, Sweden, Spain and the Netherlands, daily data is available here: Electric Vehicle registrations in Europe: 14 countries, 90+% of BEV market For Norway, I also like this website with VIN data: Tesla Registration...

Good point. I agree production should be higher than 260,00 units. I edited my initial post.

China insured units in November (incl. one day of October) so far: 39,500 units Tesla MIC 31 Oct-6 Nov: 11,195 Tesla MIC 7-13 Nov: 13,939 Tesla MIC 14-20 Nov: 14,366 Prior record retail sales in the second month of a quarter: 34,502 units With more than a week left in November, >50,000 insured...

There is a rumor on Twitter about 30 (manually built) Cybertruck deliveries in December. Not sure if the Twitter account is reliable.

GM update on their EV plans. Funny what they think EV leadership would look like in 2025: 1 million units in North America with mid-single-digit EBIT margins 😂 Link: GM Raises 2022 Guidance and Expects North American EV Portfolio to be Profitable in 2025 as Annual Capacity Tops 1 Million |...

Elon sells shares that already exist. His shares are now just in other hands. No new shares are created. Hence, there is no dilution from these transactions. There might even be some positive effect from Elon selling shares, as it should affect the free float and force passive funds to buy...

PEG around 1 seems also to me like a fair (or even low) valuation of Tesla. In my near-term financial model, I include PEG valuations based on YoY earnings growth and full-year non-GAAP EPS estimates. This yields a share price of around 350$ with a rather cautious margin and growth assumption...

It is annoying that Reuters compares the first month with full quarters in their article. Production was always higher than wholesale sales in the first month of each quarter. This month's production exceeds wholesale sales by 17,000 units compared to ~10,000 units in Jan/Apr/Jul. Without any...

Tesla MIC Wholesale split was just published: 54,504 export (new record) and 17,200 local retail sales

Based on VIN tracking in Norway, the estimated Giga Berlin production rate exceeds 3,000 Model Y per week. Berlin and Austin combined should be at a run rate of 65,000 Model Y per quarter ((3,000+2,000)*13) and are still quickly ramping.

"20k Model Y built at Giga Texas to date." This bodes well for Q4 production. Some quick math: Based on Troy and Rob, around 11-12k Model Y were built at Giga Texas until the end of the third quarter. Hence, 8-9k Model Y were built in 29 days of October. This is already an average weekly rate...

Early pre-market TSLA trades on European markets are around 265€ (260$). Which is a bit less than -2% compared to the US close on Friday.

Tesla plans to resume production at Giga Shanghai tomorrow (Monday): https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-plans-resume-production-its-shanghai-plant-april-4-sources-2022-04-03

Here is also confirmation for the restart from the ground in Shanghai:

2 days of production stop at Giga Shanghai https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/exclusive-tesla-stops-work-shanghai-factory-two-days-amid-china-covid-curbs-2022-03-16/ Should be around 4,000-6,000 cars less produced.

First person asks at what point Tesla is allowed to produce. They mention some examples of air quality tests and some documents Tesla has to submit. Tesla plans 2 weeks for that according to the speaker.

Your limited knowledge of the language is sufficient. Not much content except from some minor tidbits.

Permit is approved Production can only begin after meeting some more requirements (not specified in his talk so far)

I try my best. There is also another link here: Genehmigung für Tesla-Fabrik in Brandenburg erwartet

The Giga Berlin press conference in 2 hours (9.30 am ET) will be streamed live from this Twitter Account (State Chancellery of Brandenburg):

Reuters updated their article. The timeline is now identical to the Panasonic press release: "TOKYO, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Panasonic Corp (6752.T) said on Monday it will begin mass production of a new lithium-ion battery for Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) before the end of March 2024 at a plant in Japan."

Reuters is reporting that Panasonic starts 4680 cell mass production before the end of March: https://www.reuters.com/technology/panasonic-begin-mass-producing-new-tesla-battery-by-end-march-2022-02-28/ On the investor relations website of Panasonic is a press release available from today...

Yes, they refer to next Thursday or Friday (3rd or 4th of March).

There is an exclusive article in the German newspaper "Tagesspiegel" claiming that the final approval for Giga Berlin should happen on Thursday or Friday next week . As the article is behind a paywall, I don't know more as of now. Link...

German here: Can confirm that Tesla is not allowed to sell cars produced during this testing phase at Giga Berlin. Furthermore, Tesla is not allowed to sell parts or car bodies produced during the testing phase as a part of a car. Tesla also has to provide documentation to a governmental agency...

In order to match the current stock price with a fair value estimate from a financial model, one could have following pessimistic assumptions (see picture below): - decrease in gross-margins from the car business - no revenue streams from autonomy / charging network for third parties /...

China January data is out: