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Plus any democrat that can do math and has a fiscal 'conservative' streak. Daycare and free college for the masses would hit the top couple of tax brackets pretty hard. Not even sure the others could simultaneously fund all their pet projects plus massive investment in an energy transformation...

For a 22-year old everything is fine. You can drink all night and go to take an exam in the morning; you can put all your money into a single stock because 99% of your money is yet to be earned. This is exactly the right age to take really big, almost stupid risks that have huge potential...

Going from Q2 delivery numbers to CF and earnings impact, has anyone seen any projections assuming they get to 90K total units? Would be interesting if the FCA cash pushed them to flat or slightly positive. Probably a beat relative to expectations.

Canada too cold? Not for long...last years heat wave took fricking Alberta to 92F. People in Toronto were jumping into the lake to cool off.

You really think actual investors buy and sell based on what Jonas says? Really are there people that dumb that are yet smart enough to earn enough money to save some of it and invest it in stocks? I was under the impression the purpose of sell-side analysts was to make weathermen look...

Don't forget the price point of Tesla. There's probably a large intersection between the set of young people who make their own decisions and the ones who can afford (and would want) a Tesla. Poorer kids aren't getting expensive cars. Richer kids still dependent on their parents for cars aren't...

I don't know why they need to join forces for parts, but for charging stations it makes sense to have a single standard that all cars could use. If you want the widest possible EV adoption, that is. So whenever you come across one you can use it regardless of make.

In making any investment decision I would treat all FSD as icing and invest assuming it is banned from the world forever. It's all about volumes, margin (which depends on battery cost curve) and cash management until the combination of those two lead to profitability. The bear case is built on...

This is a start-up with several ex-Tesla battery people. They are now in mass production for consumer electronics but testing for auto batteries. They claim to have a way to use silicon nanoparticles to increase energy density of lithium ion batteries by 15-20% that addresses the silicon volume...

Well their trading desk which sell both puts and calls and their brokerage which gets commissions on all stock transactions, long or short, all make more money the more trading there is. That and underwriting fees is why they love Tesla.

I heard rumors that Elon maybe announcing some amazing progress in Shanghai during the investor meeting and that he has been holding daily meetings with the crew in charge of building the machinery. Has anyone else heard this?

The last shorts to add are the weakest hands. If bulls have dry powder left, short covering from the weak hands and robots should propel us over 200 this week. This kind of short interest is basically a coiled spring. Even though I was out from my long-term position last summer and started...

Certainly in the US this is true. Apparently China has over 100 EV firms now. So the Chinese government is doing a lot too. Of course a huge country can always do more than any single company can.

I think its a subset of EV fans with some serious Teslafanatics thrown in.

Given that Norway and China were the only countries serious about EVs, wouldn't it have made sense to build the first factory in China and the second one in the US? As far as the BEV adoption curve, how much of a difference does 5 years (in the US) make to Tesla's future versus to companies like...

No, the intended imbedded impliccation is that in the short-term, the narrative of a potential restructuring story is dominating the imagination of fund managers. Narratives, not reality (and index/robot fund flows) dominate short-term price movements. If the reality is that value continues to...

I've been reading that a lot of people who had sold puts at much higher prices got assigned and this was adding to the selling pressure. Depending on your broker, you might have been able to sell long-dated puts at 225 or 250 many months ago and collect a large premium. Once it dropped below...

I dunno. Are you going to be obnoxious? I think people who are obnoxious or impolite should be banned regardless of which side they invest on. I can't begrudge a short because I was a long from $24 to $355 and am neither in nor out right now. If you're short from 355 down to 25 I guess we'll be...

You could just sell some puts around 150. If it doesnt drop that low at least you collect some premium for your troubles.

Right now I think it will keep dropping a lot until right before earnings.

That's very interesting. 360 is very close to where I sold last summer. I bought around Jan 7 2012 (I remember the date cuz it was right around my birthday). I hope this is all spec money for you and not for college funds, retirement, a down payment on a home, etc.

The way I view shorting is that it is the only form of time travel currently allowed. Meaning you get to sell something before you buy it. Its no different than buying and then selling later on, in reverse. In normal trading, you decide when to buy. Then you wait, perhaps a long time. One day...

Wow. Well what happened to that 180 wall of support then? Doesn't TA rely on people to believe in TA in order for it to work? I mean what good is resistance at 180 if no one has buy orders with a 180 limit?

Well if you buy a Tesla with cash from selling drugs to children I might say the good you are doing is outweighed by how you got your money. Not so sure who you took the money from by shorting the stock. People who bought it too high or just had temporarily unlucky timing? In my book you're...

Well there is a flip side to the dealership issue, which is capital. All those dealerships are owned by locals in each area who borrow money from their local banks (or national, but the point being the manufacturer isn't on the hook) to fund all the inventory and to take all the inventory risk...

What is your evidence that having knowledge of all those things actually improves prediction accuracy in the longer term? And what is your evidence that being able to predict things accurately about discrete events in the future actually leads to an increase in investment performance? There are...

Dealerships pay their employees. They take in more money than a vertically integrated, low repair business that doesn't do much with used cars. So the employees that the majors have working at dealers don't count on their IS or BS, and whatever margin they do make shows up on the private balance...

You're not also doing BMY/CELG are you?! I was a CELG owner. Decided to sell around 95. That is also sitting in cash.

Reading your post and all the ones after makes me really glad I listened to the advice I heard from and took after I sold my early bought shares. I sold them during the go private fiasco last year in the high 300s. I have looked back wondering if I should redeploy but now I have kids in...

I can't tell from the filings which part of Goldman Sachs group owns the 1.78 million shares of TSLA. It could be the trading desk or it could be goldman sachs asset management. While I agree w neroden that the prop desk and sell side research are probably meeting up after work for drinks, GSAM...

Good point. Those dealerships support all that employee count through lots of service, selling extended warranties and warranties on used cars, financing plans, and on used car mark-ups and so on. Since Tesla has less of all of the above, it probably still explains at least some of the net...

That's precisely the point. They want EV tech but they want their domestic companies to dominate it. If Tesla is 2-3 years ahead of their domestic companies, this would be the evil way to close the gap. Either that or other companies will send spies in when Tesla hires locals. The spies would...

One clue is the number of employees per car. If you compare it to the large majors, I think Tesla has about twice as many employees per annual car production. I know labor isn't the largest component of a cars costs, but it is something. Also, does any car company actually have a positive net...

As far as China, what are the odds they will support Tesla through loans long enough that they get their factory set up and running, and then engineer a sure-fire failure so they can repo all their tech as part of their loan collections? Based on reading about the state/company connections this...

When I was in my 20s and living in an apartment I did not want to own a car (lived in NYC). I took the subway. Which was electric. :)

I wasn't talking about the converts. I was talking about the 2025 bonds with 5.3 coupon cusip 88160RAE1. The converts have a lower yield because they come with embedded call options struck around 309. So if the SP rises above that they can pay you in stock at that price.

The bonds are paying just above 9% at current prices. So if Tesla doesn't go bankrupt, you're earning 9% a year. If it goes through a reorganization and continues to operate after, it wipes out the old equity and you would become one of the new owners. However the true downside would be if it...

Short-sighted versus choosing a nominee who won't win and giving Trump another 4 years to continue his nonsense?

That depends on what you do with the income from the tax. It would be best to use most of it to support the bottom 50% of the income distribution with dividend checks (like residents of Alaska get for oil production there). AS those are the folks who are probably going to be the least equipped...

I wonder how many divorces this stock is gonna cause...

Current cost vs future cost (rebuilding Miami and Boston will cost money too)...there is no hope unless all the nations of the world agree to a rising carbon tax, which goes up at 5% a year for the next 20 years.

I don't buy the idea that any other place will have the same EV adoption curve as Norway did unless that place also taxes ICEs in exactly the way that Norway did.

I'm not going to read the article, but did she speak to any real portfolio managers, or talk about the balance sheet, income statement or delivery numbers at all? Or was it just gossip/bs?

I suppose other brokers will also roll it out, like E*Trade, if a high percent of their clients have exposure and it could result in problems when a large move occurs in either direction.

I thought it took longer from the time the building is ready to having all the factory equipment installed and operating than a few months. Was reading more like end of year for completing the insides and having it ready to produce.

So what is your forecast now for Q2 and the rest of the year?

I'm guessing the people who continue to sell now are not "weaker hands" in the sense of stock holders giving up, but people who had sold puts struck at high levels in the 300s. Now the put buyers are exercising their puts, so these folks now have loads of margin to come up with if they weren't...

I'm very curious if the original shortie and you are still on this thread and if you are both sticking to your original positions. A woman I work with also bought in around $25, 1000 shares I think. After talking to a guy at work who is a big stock picker, after the 420 tweet when it spiked a...

You've asked a very good question. I know some of it was mix (there were plenty of S and X in that 90k). There were enough ZEV and GHG credits to add about 500 mil of pure profit if I remember correctly. And some people *claim* that panasonic temporarily gave them a price break on battery costs...

I guess this didn't age that well.