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🤣 Or similarly:

Haven’t posted in a while.. just wanted to commemorate the first day since 2012 that I stand to make no gain from any further appreciation of TSLA. Sold all my leaps over the last 2 weeks and the remaining shares are all spoken for by covered calls that are now in the money as of $245. And I...

He is data driven.

I think it’s very easy to say if unsupervised FSD is currently better or worse than the average driver. Do you trust your (presumably average) Uber driver enough to sit on the back seat while they drive you to work? Do you trust FSD with the same?

It seems unrealistic to sell 20M cars at $50K. Their ASP will likely fall below $50K this year at around 2M sales at best. If you are including FSD in that price, OK, but that is an assumption some people aren't willing to bake into their models just yet.

That guy is so comfortable interrupting Elon and taking over, it's amazing. You don't see that often.

Thanks for not calling it “soccer” ;)

Yes, every article about "well, the West brought this on themselves by expanding NATO eastward" basically boils down to the assumption that 150 million Eastern Europeans have no right to chose their destiny and allegiance. I believe the proper scholarly response to that is "иди нахуй".

Breakeven for the options position may be $412, but you should also calculate at what price the options would start making you more money than if you just held the stock. $412 is 0% return on your new option position (thus breakeven). But if you did nothing and held your stock, and we were back...

Could the 4k Rest of APAC be a bit too low with 2 ships to S. Korea and 1 ship to Taiwan that have plenty of time to unload and deliver? Plus maybe some containers to Australia, NZ, Japan?

Should we kill them too, like the homeless? In fact, "progressives" are even worse, not only useless, but can be dangerous... if elected, they can give you healthcare, or commit terrible atrocities, like stealing your hard-earned money to pay public teachers a living wage...

Thanks for digging this up. I remember watching it in early 2013. Towards the end, my girlfriend (now wife) walked in and finished watching it with me. At the end she said, "I hope Tesla makes it". I said they have already made it. Now the rest of the world has to realize it. Two months later...

My not advice: Sell the 100 shares and buy 2 calls for late 2021 or jan 2022. Should be able to get strikes around 300-350 with the 57k from selling 100 shares. When you have the cash next year, let the calls get exercised and you end up with 200 shares. Worst case, you lose all your money...

So, a week ago I sold a couple of 580 covered calls for this Friday. I'm still new to this, being a Market Maker and all. How do I get the price to stay under 580? (I know, I'll just buy them back if I have to)

Third Row Tesla crew blew it too. Can't believe they had Kimbal there and didn't ask him about Plant a Seed Day.

Just piling up on the parking lot. Nobody wants them.

They are also not number 1 and 2, but number 7 and 8 after 3 pickup trucks and 3 SUVs that cost more and sell more than the Toyota Camry and the Honda Civic. And the Camry actually costs more than $20k.

Thanks, as always, for sharing your work. Tesla already reported that leased vehicles were 15% for Model S/X and 8% for Model 3.

$280 tops, because... you know... there's no demand, and competition is heating up. Plus, Tesla is known for putting out overly ambitious guidance, but sophisticated analysts like Adam Jonas know they will produce only 60,000 Model 3s in 2019.

Of all business leaders, Musk seems to suffer the least from the sunk cost fallacy. He gave up on battery swap when it didn't make sense, gave up on the alien dreadnaught (for now), gave up on propulsive landing for Dragon v2, radically changed the design of Starship a few times, his whole basic...

Without "funding secured", "pedo guy", "let's go to youtube" and with a bit more careful setting of expectations (not sandbagging, just more clear messaging of the insanely ambitious goals), we would have hit $400 easily already.

Troy seems to be accounting for model years in his estimates: Troy Teslike on Twitter

It's the same car, it just appears blue when it's approaching the observer and red when it's speeding away.

420

You seem to be using the conversion between NEDC and EPA to get to those pretty bad numbers. The advertised ranges are WLTP, which is still more optimistic than EPA, but a lot better than NEDC. 342 miles of WLTP range should be about 305 EPA miles. Here's How To Calculate Conflicting EV Range...

I don't know your specific situation obviously, but If there is a reason that you can't share details here, make sure that this reason doesn't implicate you or someone else in insider trading.

This removes any remaining doubt that they will announce a capital raise at $240 today or tomorrow.

Completely agree with everything except the last sentence. Make 420 miles the standard at the high end.

Fair points. To anyone looking to get a clearer picture of winter consumption, I recommend signing up for teslafi and looking at your 'temperature efficiency' over time. My daily commute is less than 5 miles one way, and I was getting terrible results (46% of rated efficiency) at 20° F. However...

Just move to Kazakhstan. Problem solved.

I agree with you on one thing. Tesla's progress so far has been unreal.

The 200-week moving average of TSLA is at 274.65 today. It has never been conclusively breached since the start of the epic rise in 2013.

Thanks, that's starting to make sense now. I guess they just didn't want to wait for InsideEVs and went with last month's number for now.

goodcarbadcar.net is out with their estimate for Model 3 sales in November: 17500, which is exactly the same as their and InsideEV's estimate for October. EDIT: InsideEV's estimate for October was 17750, thanks for the correction. EDIT 2: goodcarbadcar.net just changed their estimate to 17,750...

4) People who think the market is dumb and are selling shares to leverage up on options.

Except that you get the additional benefit from the margin improvement relative to Q2 of the other 20k Model 3s as well... but you knew that..

Anyone have a Model S rear driver-side door? A friend of mine got his door dinged and they are making him wait 3-6 months for a replacement. He has a grey 2016 Model S.

Just contributed my $55k to Tesla's Q3 revenue. The white AWD model 3 is an amazing car! The delivery center was packed with Model 3s, and new hires were being trained to prepare to deliver even more cars. The woman who showed me my car had just started and I believe we were the first or second...

Hi all, Just writing to share my status. Reserved in-store 3/31 (didn't wait in line). Ordered non-P AWD, white, no AP on 6/30/18. Just received the first communication since then, from the Inside Delivery Team. They say "your Model 3 is finishing with production and will soon be ready to be...

The next day the same poster gave an update (look a bit further in the same thread) that they didn't come anywhere close to that goal... So still checks out. Doesn't mean it's true, but also doesn't mean they are just making stuff up.

Got the email 5:06 pm today (EST). In-store reservation around 6pm on 3/31/16 in Boston

Nothing yet for me. East coast, 6pm in-store reservation on 3/31. April - June estimate.

The initial initial goal was 10k/week (500k cars) in 2020. Elon didn't promise 10k/week by end of 2017. He "promised" 5k/week by end of 2017 and he guaranteed 10k/week by end of 2018... and has since reneged on that part though.

They don't have enough parts coming in from suppliers to make much more than about 50,000 Model S per year. Zero chance that they produced 20,000 Model S in Q1. If you change your Model S estimate to 12,500 from 22,500, I think you'd be pretty accurate at 31k total S3X deliveries for Q1.

Nothing yet for me.. in-store reservation ~6pm in Boston, MA

More "color" from InsideEVs:

Tesla just filed a new 8-K, clarifying that the 2500/wk target doesn't depend on the equipment in Germany. That's what gets them to 5k in Q2 Tesla - Current Report

Weird bit is that 5YJ3E1EAXJF003027 is a valid 2018 VIN registered with NHTSA, and 5YJ3E1EAXHF003040 is a valid 2017 VIN (apparently already delivered)

voted for > 30k ~14k Model S ~14k Model X ~2k Model 3

What's the delivery date estimate on the second invite? Still 4 weeks?