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It's basically working capital. There is a more detailed breakdown of what is included in the 10-Ks and 10-Qs. Items like inventory, accounts payable/receivable, deferred revenue, etc. Note that it's the effect of these items on cash flows. So if inventory goes up, it's a negative effect on...

I can't imagine he's doing it for the money. He's probably making ~$500k off of Patreon each year and presumably has a pretty good chunk of TSLA holdings as well. Although the main selling point of it sounds like it is the community, and it feels a bit wrong to me to charge people for the value...

Those EPS numbers are non-GAAP, whereas P/E ratio is usually based off of GAAP numbers. Therefore, Tesla's actual EPS in those scenarios will be slightly higher than your 92 and 56.

Made this table over the weekend with some valuation and growth data points from Tesla and a few other companies. Sharing it here in case anyone finds it useful: Red field means unavailable data (revenue 5 years ago from then not-public company) or negative numbers from unprofitable...

Singapore does exactly this: Not Vaccinated? In Singapore, You’ll Pay for Your Own Covid-19 Treatment

Earnings calls aren't there to pump up the stock price, satisfy short-term traders, or reiterate things covered in the letter. Earnings calls exist to provide additional details and to answer questions/alleviate concerns from long-term investors.

Even if you give them that and assume they are able to determine this perfectly, the much bigger flaw imo is that they assume zero overlap in the mistakes these 2 systems make.

Last I heard, MobilEye does not know of a way to achieve the required safety levels through pure vision, hence they plan to combine a separate vision system and a separate LIDAR system. Their belief is that if their vision system makes a mistake once every 1,000 hours and their LIDAR system...

I'm nowhere close to being the oldest nor the wisest TMC member, but here are my two cents. Early in my adult life (10-15 years ago), I was big on movies and loved movies that suggested there may be more to life than meets the eye, such as I Origins, Mr. Nobody, Interstellar, Arrival, etc. I...

The latter. No cap gains tax at all, unless you are speculating on real estate.

No capital gains tax in Singapore. Unless it's from real estate speculation.

Thank you! I don't think I'll be posting much though. Tesla/investing/money isn't very high priority in my life right now, so I won't be allocating that much time to it. I'll just keep up with the main stuff (Tesla Daily Podcast) and consider leveraging up/down when stock is low/high. I share...

I turned this into a blog post. There's not that much more information beyond the graphs, but I've elaborated a bit on a few things, including on the downsides of call spreads. TSLA Options: Are Call Spreads the Future?

Consider getting spreads going short the $2,475 call rather than getting naked calls. Although there's a few downsides with spreads, I think the pay-offs are more attractive atm than naked calls, unless you believe there's a significant chance of the stock going to $4k or higher in the next 2...

If you're selling shares to make these trades that you otherwise would've held onto, you're making a big mistake by calculating your returns in $ values. That money invested in common stock would've done better than breakeven at your calculated breakeven points, so these aren't actually your...

I'm not sure why you would want to look at the Shiller P/E ratio, because it takes the average of the last 10 years of earnings. It's looking backwards, whereas the market looks forward. The normal S&P 500 P/E ratio peaked at the end of last year (presumably because the market expected strong...

Hahaha, thank you :) I've only traveled to the US once, I was born in Europe. Definitely staying in Singapore. The only reason I did the MBA was to make it easier to get a visa here (it's not easy, and education is part of what they look at). No job, because I want to spend most of my time on...

Hey! I finished it earlier this month 🥳 Thank you so much for the praise! Although I'm not sure I agree. My content is more hardcore research. I'd be my own favorite YouTube channel, but I think it's too in-depth for more casual investors/Tesla fans. That's totally fine with me though. I...

I listened to Dave's interview with him and I have read some of his posts on Twitter. As I understand it, he used a lot of margin in early 2020, got margin called during the COVID crash, and his position that would've been worth $10B+ today got completely wiped out. So how has he managed to...

Thanks for letting me know. Somebody else mentioned geothermal HVAC to me. I'll keep these things in mind for the future.

All is good :) MBA is almost finished already. That's awesome to hear! Stories like this make all the work that went into the blog worth it! Looks like our views for the next two years are pretty similar then. Fingers crossed reality will match those expectations.

Cool to see there's a cult-following of that old October 2019 blog post :) And yeah, I'm also happy to see how well my predictions turned out. Especially given that post was before Q3'19 ER that significantly increased OPEX margin. I agree with everything you say. The only thing we seem to...

Hahaha, thank you :) Singapore is great! They are conservative on purpose, because they are used to make option trades, for which I always err on the side of caution.

I haven't met this person (yet), but I can confirm Ken (Chicken Genius) has mentioned him to me a number of times. I wouldn't be surprised if this is true.

It looks like IV has come down, but premiums are slightly higher ($208 for $700s when I wrote it). The graphs in the blog show the breakeven point calculated in # of shares. You would indeed breakeven on the $700s in terms of dollar value at a stock price of $912, but that same money invested...

https://teslainvestor.blogspot.com/2021/09/my-tesla-investment-thesis-3-complete.html Some of you might be interested in this 🙃

If nothing has been omitted from BRK's 13F this time, it looks like the mystery investment(s) was/were Chevron, Marsh&Mclennan, Verizon: SEC FORM 13-F Information Table

I agree with what @generalenthu posted. The delta on these options should be so low that they have effectively no influence on the stock movement.

I think they most likely learned their lesson with the M3. Besides, Shanghai 3 ramp went fine in terms of logistics. And I don't think any ramp will be as taxing on Tesla's logistics infrastructure in terms of percentage increase as the M3 was. If there are major logistics issues, that'd be a...

Extrapolating Q4: 720k Shanghai Y same ramp as Shanghai 3: 150k That means you only need another 130k from Berlin, Austin, faster Shanghai Y ramp, potential increase in demand for new S & X, Semi, further Shanghai 3 ramp, and/or further Fremont Y ramp to get 100% growth in 2021. Berlin looks...

Thank you! I reckon the biggest reason for this move is the fact that everybody who wanted to sell, got a pretty good chance to do so on S&P inclusion day. It once again should've further weeded out whatever 'weak longs' were left, and further strengthened the average conviction, and increased...

Thank you :) I'm not too unhappy with my prediction. Although to be fair, I predicted this kind of SP after the S&P dust settles. It is certainly very possible that this movement is still a part of that entire transformation of the float, but there is also some chance that it is not, and that...

No idea. I haven't really checked the stock for a few days. I had a lot of leaps from late 2019 to the S&P inclusion, as you know. I think it's pretty obvious that TSLA will never see another year like 2020 again, and although I think it could continue to rise slowly and steadily from $650...

Going to have coffee with him next week :) My real-estate agent in Singapore also happens to be a huge Tesla fan, and has ~90% of his portfolio in Tesla. And Singapore is usually number 4 on highest traffic countries on my blog, after US, Canada, UK. Lots of people love Tesla here. The store...

Tesla's S&P 500 Inclusion Part 3: The Final Chapter

Was watching billions Season 5 Episode 6 just now, and noticed they're trading TSLA: Here's the clip (pause at 0:08):

@JusRelax @MP3Mike @zach_ Who were the ones that looked at VOO's reported holdings at the end of this week and used it for some calculations? Can you point me to where you found it? This is what I found on Vanguard's website: And it has TSLA nearly perfectly balanced in accordance with the...

Macros very red (look at IWM) + Profit taking + Delta Hedging + Panic Selling imo.

Sold the final 4/7th for ~2x return before the drop to $650. IBKR wouldn't let me hold onto them past 3:45PM, and it felt it too bothersome to roll them over to next week, so I just bought stock.

Same. I sold them before it just dropped to $650, because IBKR told me I could not hold them until after 3:45PM.

I haven't had time to think about this. Too busy today talking to IBKR about holding ITM options expiring today until final minutes before close :rolleyes:

I'm not sure. It's my first time calling. But I plan to call them in ~20 minutes, about 90 minutes before the trades need to happen. No, I received the number from the regular trading desk.

Sold 3/7th of this position for an ~2.5x gain. Using it to cover tuition fees and living expenses for next year. I'm letting the remaining 4/7 ride for now. IBKR gave me an extension on liquidating this position (that is too large for me to exercise on margin) until 15:45. I'll either have to...

2nd time in ~15 minutes. Somebody has fat fingers? So strange.

Let me add to this that the LOC orders will be filled at the same price as the cross happens. I tested this with some LOO (Limit on Open) orders today: Interestingly enough, the $670 LMT order did not get filled, so presumably there was inadequate liquidity.

I think the prediction model in my blog is still the best way to estimate this.

It's 100k. Not sure why it says size 23x100 at the top. The trades on this tape are definitely not *100.

Actually, they have to be reported within 10 seconds.

I caught this big one just now. I wonder if this was a dark pool trade. Definitely a bit off of market price:

IWM = Russell 2000 ETF Not showing what the other 3 colors are for some reason, but they are AAPL, MSFT, AMZN.