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This is my biggest concern for FSD. In certain parts of Canada we use salt on the roads. The concentrated salty water ends up on the rear and side cameras and dries there. It happens within minutes of a driving off. This disactivates highway lanes changes most of the time 6 months of the year...

I wanted to provide another data point from Montreal, Canada. (Perhaps one of the saltiest roads in the world) 2019 M3 SR+. At about 30,000kms (August 2020) I was hearing creaking from the left front. Tesla said the FUCA bushing was seized and replaced the left (1044321-98-G). They did not...

I agree that there needs to be a safer control for wipers, it’s the main feature that bugs me on the Model 3 since it’s kind of dangerous. Voice control works but is quite slow to initiate. Auto works for half the year (summer w/ rain) but doesn’t react super well to snow and terribly with road...

I’m curious to hear how others perceive it, but this is the way I interpret it. (Only applies to US for now) Private Beta: where we were right now with hand-picked limited number of users. EAP: Those who purchased FSD and have selected the “Advanced” option in vehicle info. Similar to the...

I don’t know about you guys, but I’m in it for the long haul. Our Tesla’s have the potential to last quite a while without major repairs. They seem to have nailed the 3D (or I guess 4D with time) perception problem with the cameras. I’m curious to see how that visualization looks like when it...

Tesla Raj will be uploading his footage in 15 minutes (8AM EST) to YouTube. This should be interesting:

Yup, keep doubting....this is fun. It’s Tesla’s first release and their FSD beta will be running & learning on more cars in the next 2 months than Waymo could ever dream of. Their beta will also be running on cars all over the world, not just 25 cities being driven by engineers. Tesla will also...

Driverless FSD in a town in the desert with $150k+ minivans is not FSD. let’s say it’s not generalized FSD. it’s an obvious shortcut that Waymo chose an area with no precipitation. let me re-iterate. Tesla is the first to GENERALIZED FSD. Waymo is pre-beta, it’s only available to a tiny...

Elon has been right all this time, he’s a super-genius and it was wrong to doubt the fact that they were going to deliver a generalized FSD solution on HW3. I guess people needed some real world proof/evidence in the public eye to believe? Is it too much to ask for Waymo to prove how they...

Man, imagine all those people doubting Elon all this time that kept repeating Tesla needs Lidar and that Waymo will be first to FSD... I would be feeling pretty rediculous looking back at all the time I insulted others who had faith in Tesla to get it done, to have FSD in every Tesla be end of...

The first release notes are leaking. (intentionally it seems) this first release seems to pretty much do everything, looking forward to seeing the “evidence” of generalized FSD via customer videos, something that can be done on a Tesla ;)

Agreed, I look forward to the update. If it can do my daily drive with only 1-2 interventions at initial release, I personally think it will be robust enough for my needs 1-2 years later. Dojo seems like a path forward to accelerating robustness at a higher rate than we’ve previously seen

Elon, not me, said this current year. Elon has always said the rewrite was more than just perception. What he talked about during the Third Row Podcast was putting all three layers in “stack 2.0” and training planning and control too, similar to what George Hotz talks about. I guess we’ll see...

So Elon pretty much hit the nail on the coffin on all my points during the Q3 earnings call tonight. What he said was quite epic, pretty much that efforts wasted on LIDAR are useless and that Tesla will prove this to the world by the end of the year. I am betting on all of us enjoying...

Elon did say in September that they would start with private beta, if that went well 4-6 weeks later it would be available to early access if the user opts-in and the mid-December there would be a wide release. In theory, this won’t be in the hands of EAP for another 4-6 weeks.

Some facts that cannot be ignored: 1) We have no evidence or appreciation for the level of sophistication of Waymo’s camera vision system. Tesla is on pure vision + radar and we can try it in our cars today. Autopilot drove me on the highway most days last winter in Montréal. I have video...

I tried to find any proof or examples of Waymo sensors driving the car in snow/snowstorm without any luck. i just found an article stating that they have been testing in Detroit. I lived 3 years in Windsor, On across the border from Detroit. Windsor is the most southern point of Canada and had...

I’m not saying they’ve figured it out, only that having mass scale and access to many use cases to learn from is key to reliability and will provide them a fighting chance. Are you insinuating that Waymo’s vision system is more advanced/reliable that Tesla’s? i thought we all knew that LIDAR...

Waymo’s autonomous cars have driven 20 million miles on public roads That link states that Waymo has about 600 cars on the road right now to learn from. Tesla has 1000000. Tesla has 1666X more cars on the road which gives them 1666X more chances to experience some weird stuff, which is what...

Waymo still doesn’t have the key to machine learning which is a lot of varied data across the world that you can only come by through mass scale. For example, An engineer can drive a car all they want in Detroit but they will never see the crazy stuff we see in Montréal. In my lifetime, I may...

how seriously are they taking this depth estimation via vision system? Wouldn’t Tesla’s self-supervision concept using Dojo and 1M(2020) - 20M(2030) vehicles all around the world be necessary to give vision a level of robustness needed (or a fighting chance) for FSD? If LIDAR is too noisy...

If Waymo uses LIDAR to determine depth, and cameras for color. What does that depth map look like in a snow storm or in rain? Would they have to create a secondary system less reliant on LIDAR (like Tesla) or do we see promise of LIDAR hw somehow being able to see through snow?

So I don’t know about you guys but on the east coast it’s now 8:40AM, the night is over. I don’t see anything on Teslafi. Can we assume this is an extremely limited release?

Does he mean the rollout will be slow or autopilot will be slow and cautious?

I know you know the Waymo system well. They say their latest sensor suite (in the I-Pace) has a 300m range and I assume they have more than one. With what you know, what would be your guess on the current system’s power consumption? (including the computing power necessary) 60W for a single...

I have asked this question a few time whenever I see LIDAR being mentioned. Please, someone tell me how much power a 360deg LIDAR that can see 300m away without interference consumes? I have a a mini LIDAR that can only properly see 8m away with a 512x512 resolution and it consumes 12W. Would...

Are the two linked videos showing examples with cities which have been per-scanned for use with high definition maps? What is the power consumption of this system and can it work without high definition maps?

I believe phantom braking is solved by reducing uncertainty and giving the planner a more accurate simulation of what’s going on around the car. In my lowish 15 month experience with the FSD option, Phantom braking has evolved, sometimes gotten worse but over time it has been for different...

Wouldn’t relying on HD maps require a massive amount of data for the car to process at a given time and how much digital space would be needed to store all of North America? Just downloading a 2D google Maps tile with vector data can be quite large. So assuming we would rely on HD maps, our...

Hehe, so true and most likely the biggest differentiator between Tesla and the others. Tesla have Elon Musk who is basically a man who has been able to retain hope in his dreams of the future. Elon and his teams don’t seemed to get trapped cynicism and thinking they know all (some of the forum...

i went on some very twisty country roads and my experience is the opposite, I have never witnessed by car taking curvy roads at slow speed better than it does in 2020.32.3.(I have a 3 SR+) i can confirm that on 2020.32.2 I was getting strange behaviour like the car wanting to stop in the middle...

The lack of creativity of that response was underwhelming. FACTS: 1) Tesla does not recommend you stop paying attention while using their Beta FSD features, they state that you must always keep your eyes on the road and be alert. 2) What does it say about the human driving? Like many on the...

It's probably just a bug, since I agree that it would be counterproductive to do this at an off-ramp and of course the car should never do this if an oncoming car in in the passing lane (as I noted in my previous post). IMO, we will really "feel" the re-write, it would be really disapointing...

Perhaps they've dropped the ball on NoA in the past months. Not really any improvements to talk about other than the better lane changes end of 2019. I also do agree that NoA is not the most refined experience and my gut feeling tells me this is not part of the rewrite. I assume NoA is more the...

If you haven’t seen this, it shows a very interesting perspective on the state of FSD by someone who has created a viable FSD platform(Openpilot). Not very enthusiastic about Waymo/Cruise... Takeaway, they are a marketing ploy to keep investors invested and have no serious intention of making...

Really, Waymo can drive anywhere in the USA in the winter?

No takers? I had a feeling this would scare off those who think Waymo/Cruise have a better chance of real-world FSD.:p

I get that as well and Tesla needs competitors to keep them on their toes regardless. It will be an interesting few years. Shall we call the winner the first to: 1) drive (without causing an accident) from point A to B in the USA with no human in vehicle or remote control. 2) do so without...

I guess I value real-world impact more than a tech demo. I've seen too many incredible technologies and ideas die because they are just that, technologies and ideas. Humans value purpose and things that affect them, and aren't we humans at the end of the day?

Hehe, very true. Love this forum.

Agree with your conclusion, this year will be very telling. With regards to the beginning of your statement, this assumes other car companies will matter. Maybe Toyota and VW, but this assumes they aren't 5-7 years behind Tesla when it comes to making an EV, and multiple credible sources (ex...

Ok, I guess time will tell. I'm sure if I go digging I'll find Waymo/Cruise claims that have not come true in the predicted timeline. Development is tough and things change, I still believe Tesla will deliver in the end and if they can't with the current hardware, they'll provide a path to...

That sounds about right. I'm an engineer as I imagine some of you are too and I love seeing progress but a technology without a viable business case dies. Apple knows this, Google seems ok with spending tons on an R&D project and letting it die. I see arguments here about how Tesla does not...

From what I read, nobody in this thread has actually experienced a Waymo drive. Other than the Media videos and Waymo's videos/website, where are you getting your information from? Lol, how can you say Waymo/Cruise are winning? There might be a possibility Tesla gets this in our hands in a few...

Perhaps 1 lidar is only $7.5k but how much does then entire sensor suite cost? There is definitely more than 1 lidar... $5-7k is the price Elon has quoted to change an entire battery module in my car when it degrades in 10 years. That's a much better use of money. I got rear-ended a few months...

One other thought... I get skeptical of Tesla's ability to deliver FSD, but I have also never experienced software that evolves this quickly and increases featureset on a biweekly manner. I get skeptical, then they surprise me. You cannot argue with the rate of progression. At the end of the...

Yes, terrain awareness is a key feature I'm sure Tesla is working on. In Montreal we get horrendous potholes, sometimes sewer access is raised, variations in the flatness of the road which sends us off our seats sometimes, then speed bumps with faded paint due to the snow truck scaping and then...

When (I think we all agree that it will happen at some point) Tesla matches or exceeds the human ability of driving, what will that do to the value of Waymo's approach? It doesn't matter if Waymo can drive around a block in 2020 if they can't scale up. Let's be real, $100k+ hybrid minivans...

Seems our wishes will be met quite soon. Someone tweeted Elon Musk yesterday about this and he replied "Coming soon". Elon Musk on Twitter

I think he sees more through this feature than most of us do but perhaps we also don't give it enough credit. Part of me sees this as a useless feature since Tesla have been training for stop/go for a very long time. We have also had this feature for quite some time in the form of NoA stopping...