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I know we always say "never say never," but at this point I am comfortable in saying there will never be a Tesla Robotaxi - not with anything resembling their current FSD software and hardware. And, yes, I have it and drive using it frequently (almost daily).

Funny, I feel just the opposite. I was very excited with 12.3. First time like I really felt like the system had gained significant ground. But while I just thought it was a name change (FSD Supervised vs FSD Beta), 12.3.3 brought back many of my 11.4 daemons: unexplained slow downs, really...

It can also write convincing legal briefs, but will completely make up citations.

It’s really good at transcoding and explaining the transcoding line by line.

I hate to say never, but i certainly can’t think of an instance right this minute. Definitely not LDA while on FSD. I am thinking it is a new possibility due to the change in the architecture, like the respective neural nets are running in parallel now instead of all part of the same stack. I...

+1 for how disquieting it is that Emergency Braking and Lane Departure Avoidance are so active while 12.3 is driving. I’ve had more EAB and LDA incidents on the few short drives on 12.3 than I’ve had in the previous almost 6 years of driving my car. At least I feel like these things are being...

Passing behavior v11.4 is really, really bad. When it wants to pass, it will opportunistically and aggressively move into a small gap in the left lane to go around the slower vehicle. But then the old following distance logic takes over and the car backs way off the car in front of it. You can...

I am definitely experiencing the close to curb issues. Not any rim rash yet, but the tire has gone off the road surface and into gutters on turns. I was thinking I needed to recalibrate my cameras. However, overall it’s one of the most significant upgrades to FSD I have seen in over a year and...

100%. L3 on limited access highways is all I’ve ever wanted from FSD. The rest is just parlor tricks with no real utility. But, until some new leadership comes along without naive visions of robotaxis dancing in their heads I’m afraid we won’t see a refocusing on a usable system. And NoA will...

Google "local maxima" and "overfitting." Plus, I assume you've never had a Pandora account.

Some major déjà vu happening here reading everybody's take on the next, yet-to-be-experienced-but-promised-to-be-fire FSD version. Either this is a whole new group of posters or the posters here have short-term memories. What I have learned from driving on the FSD ADAS suite since October of...

Sorry, that shipped has sailed. Years ago!

That's not quite true. First, I am still not convinced v12 is one, single end-to-end NN. It is most likely a cascade of NNs. So the driving decision NN takes a variety of inputs beyond the output from the occupancy network (built from the cameras). This includes inputs from speed sensors...

I have to logout and log back into Spotify probably 80% of the time I get in the car. I can use the Spotify app to browse through my library and find latest episodes, but no matter what I select to play, it just keeps playing the audio from whatever it was playing before (even if it displays the...

Why not just have one stack and make the current autonomous mode (AP or NoA/AoCS) an input to the NN(s)?

I think I agree with you practically that there are lots of problems here. I would disagree with one thing, though: I don't think you would have to transmit "stupid" amounts of data. Sure, in the aggregate the training and validation datasets represent a huge amount of data. But the neural...

Why would you be surprised to find out that Tesla doesn't have any causal-inference mechanisms? Have you ever watched AI day or any FSD presentations? What has ever been said to make you believe that FSD's machine learning is based on any higher-level abstractions than simple correlations...

First you said “what we are seeing is AGI,” not “Elon said ‘this is AGI.’” Secondly, Elon has clearly shown he is no AI expert. He has said many, many things since 2015 that show his grasp of machine learning and neural nets is tenuous. Does he hire and rely on many AI experts to produce his...

If it's trained from milllion(s) of videos of people driving Teslas, it's got absolutely nothing to do with AGI. Read a little before you post a lot.

Definitely trolling. Has no real knowledge of v12 performance over previous versions (just like the rest of us). For those of us in reality, we'll just have to wait and see when we get it.

100% my experience and has been exactly that since I got Navigate on Autopilot in Oct/Nov or 2018. As I have posted many times here, for me Autopark, Smart Summon, and Autosteer on City Streets (FSDb) are simply parlor tricks to play with or show to your friends but offer no real utility as ADAS...

What's even more interesting is what's on the floor behind the robot with the blue tape covering parts of it. Are these cutting edge robots powered by Tesla Wall Chargers?

Yes, Elon said this procedure was not "autonomous," but that certainly doesn't clear it up for most folks. IMO, this video is even more disingenuous than the 2016 FSD video. At least in the 2016 video, the car was driving. Here, you can catch glimpses of the right hand of a person standing just...

So this is HW4 only? I mean, I get that it ultimately probably won’t work worth a hoot (what I’ve come to expect from Tesla automation features), but if it is specifically only targeted for HW4, that would be doubly dissatisfying.

Wow. Usually not my cup of tea but that's really good.

I've gotten where I dread updates because, while they may provide a new feature or fix something that I want fixed, they inevitably break something else. For example, I used my iPhone as a key flawlessly for a couple of years and then in 2020 got an update that made the iPhone key functionality...

Just to say, from a practical standpoint, if they didn’t bother to code it in the first 11 versions, I doubt it will be a priority for gathering and curating training data in v12.

That’s a pretty noob response for a 13 year member! 😄

Three (related) questions: 1. Is there no FSDb (AutoSteer on Coty Streets) in 2023.44.1? The release notes on Teslafi seem to suggest so. 2. What release do folks currently on 2023.27.7 (FSDb 11.4.7.3) think we need to be on to get Holiday Update on the holiday? 3. What’s the best/proper way...

“Unsupervised FSD is trending well.” Where exactly? In simulations? On a secret test track somewhere? Because AFAIK there is no unsupervised FSD on any road anywhere.

I think it suggests a rollout of v12 to prerelease testers by Summer or Fall.

Awesome. Christmas gift idea for the wife! Edit: just to be clear, a gift idea for her to give to me. :)

Math humor. Fun!

Right. No rational person would interpret “Update coming in January” from the CEO of the company as a “guess.”

Everything I’ve promised in my life that I didn’t deliver is simply late, I guess.

+1 for CarPlay. My iPhone has my favorite media apps, mapping apps, games, news apps, browser, etc. already installed with an order or two of magnitude better data connection.

Tesla FSD certainly doesn’t!

BTW, I have no idea where that picture attached to my original post came from. That’s not my car and the map in the screen is not my area. I certainly don’t remember attaching a picture to the post, nor does that picture appear to have any relevance to the post content.

My opinion, as made clear in the original post, is expressed based on my own experience with FSD feature set over the last 5 years. This is bound to be different from the opinions of people formed from viewing other people's experience on YouTube. Elon's demo of v12 was just his (one)...

My Model 3 was delivered in mid-August 2018. While I originally just had Enhanced Autopilot (EAP), I quickly paid the extra $2000 to get FSD as rumors swirled about Tesla charging more in the future. What's my opinion after 5 years of testing and playing with Tesla EAP and FSD? TLDR: It's pretty...

Sure is low and seems like it would be subject to debris and damage. However, it also looks like an easy place for a retrofit.

It’s not reading the sign, though. Reading the sign would involve determining the lettering, words, or symbology they’re upon, establishing the meaning of the words or symbology, interpreting the rule from the meaning, and adding the rule to decision making. The NN is just saying “pixels of x...

It would not seem logical to think the inputs to the "control system" would be the outputs from the current occupancy, lane identification, sign recognition, light recognition, etc. NNs. What would be the point of that? If it's end-to-end NN, I would think it would be photons-in and acceleration...

That begs a somewhat unrelated question: if they're starting from scratch, then what's the point of 11.4.7?

Except the vision-based autonomy doesn't know the rules - that's my point. There are no rules, just trained to drive like humans have driven in similar situations. This seems like an approach problem. The autonomous driving system has the opportunity to know A LOT MORE than the human driver. It...

Again, that whole video analysis relies on a belief that everything Elon is saying is both true and 100% technically accurate. But Elon has shown time and time again that he is not always truthful and/or doesn’t 100% know what is actually going on “under the hood.” So like everything Elon, take...

Yes. Actually very disappointed to see it on a 2023.7 branch. Means many more weeks of being months and months behind in firmware fixes and new features. I was hoping we would all get to move to 2023.26.10 before they continued the line.

It will be interesting to see what "next-generation active radar and lidar sensors" are implemented to achieve the "eyes-off/hands-off" functionality.

I don't believe in worship of man, so no man will ever be a god to me nor will his words be divine. I very much celebrate Elon's contributions made in both EVs and the commercialization of spaceflight. Doesn't mean I have to appreciate the man lying to me on a consistent basis. Besides, I...

That would certainly explain why some of them (eventually) hit.