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I guess you're implying that only Model X real world data is used for Model X FSD and Model 3 real world data is used for Model 3 FSD, etc. I don't believe this is true, but I'm no expert on this topic. Perhaps @Discoducky has some insight on this matter.

As I mentioned least week, I expected Tesla to tighten the belt on spending. The news below may get spun negatively but this is good news if true. Companies need to prune occasionally as there is often waste that creeps into the system.

Tesla limits the loan value to shares pledged value at 25% to mitigate forced liquidations. I estimate the shares would need to drop to $80 for there to be an issue and if it did drop to this, Elon has more shares he can put up as collateral to avoid liquidation. My estimates are based on the...

Troy's current number for Q1 is 484k (so about flat to Q4'23 but ahead of Q1'23 of 423k). Production challenges in Q1 are: - 2 week shutdown in Berlin - Model 3 Highland ramp in Fremont - Chinese new year shutdown (no different than last year) Production upsides: - Higher weekly production...

6,000 units at Berlin in one week is impressive. Keep in mind that Berlin will be down for a week or two due to parts delay. Perhaps this was a burst of production to wrap up the week before the downtime.

I can imagine. I often hear that Elon wants to keep share price down to help workers collect more shares at lower price but if the stock is down or flat for months/years, the employee sees their restricted stock shares not gaining any value and for some, the value is dropping. This can be...

At least at the 2 last public companies I worked at, the window period was mandatory only for very senior executives. Others could buy and sell at will. In fact, at the last company I worked at, I was in senior management (VP title or higher) for 15 years but only 3 of those years I was held to...

LOL - Font size. The move comes on the same day Tesla said it was recalling 2.2 million electric vehicles - nearly all its US units - due to incorrect font sizes on warning lights that increase the risk of a crash. No crashes or injuries have been reported. Tesla began releasing an over-the-air...

Fixed overhead per vehicle will drop as well if production in Q1'24 exceeds Q4'23. Also, long haul car ground transportation (US) appears to be dropping in the CPI numbers

I'm blocked by this nice gentleman. Can you tell me what Gary posted?

Tesla US - Best January ever +65% vs Jan 2023 🚀 I've sent a message to Roland asking if he could share his source.

Wow! $1,500,000 for red paint? It's Ultra Red Joking - these are Chilean Pesos. It appears that deliveries to Chile may arrive by April:

Newsflash Annual Board of Director meetings (with Sr Mgmt attending) for many S&P500 companies are often held at lavish accommodations in glamourous locations with spouses invited. I'm aware of one company having such a meeting with spouses this week. From my interaction with BOD members, they...

Typically compensation strategy is as follow: Base Pay - to compensate you for your efforts of your day to day job (put food on the table). Bonus - to reward you for performance that exceeded expectations for that fiscal year. Stock Options - to retain you and to have you focus on long term...

Yes - from a Q1 financial statement perspective, this is a mess. The auditors don't provide an Audit Opinion on quarters (only on the 10K) so they won't weigh in on this but I believe Tesla will not make any adjustments to Q1 and then provide a lengthy footnote stating the financials may be...

Elon draws no salary. These options were his only compensation for his performance from 2018 - 2023. If we vote no, we are basically telling the CEO he works for free. We approve it because it is the right thing to do.

Yes that's right, both are true.

OK - the person in control is ready to let Tesla run !!

I believe Nvidia and Dojo are both capex with depreciation going to R&D. Power bill for NN training should be R&D imo. I expect R&D to have an open checkbook to drive a number of initiatives but SG&A can often have non-value added costs creep in. In addition to having someone find a few pennies...

Not just Cost of Goods Sold (COGS), R&D and SG&A per vehicle also dropped in 2023. I did some rough math and calculated that R&D and SG&A per vehicle, dropped about $300 per vehicle in 2023. This does not impact Gross Profit but does help Operating Profit. For 2024, a drop in these cost per...

I remember when 1% up seemed like no change . . . .now it looks like 10%

All cars not solely EVs:

I often have to remind myself that if something is going to provide a competitive advantage that delivers incredible cash flow that expands valuations , the degree of difficulty is likely going to be high and consequently going to take time. If something is difficult for Tesla, I anticipate that...

While you're waiting to decide you can park your money in a Fidelity Mutual Fund earning 5.26% annually (FIGXX) You don't need a Fidelity Account to invest. I park my money there with my Merrill Lynch account. You need the overnight to clear a transaction so it's not liquid immediately but...

What you have there would get us the 30% Gross Margin. Additional costs to get us to the 10% profitability would included: - Supercharger R&D - Supercharger General & Admin costs (staff that is planning, communicating and managing SC network). My guess is that over time we will get 30% Gross...

✂️ Pocket Protector

When I worked at public companies, senior management knew what the stock price was every day (and mid-day) and if there was even a slight move, the executives would discuss it briefly with the chit chat that happens before meetings commence. When I worked at private start ups, we had no idea...

Interesting and solid advice from someone working at Tesla. Not sure how this somewhat long post will display here on TMC so let me point out some interesting lines: Do you know what one of the most common words used by business media and equities analysts happens to be? Surprise. Surprise...

I've been buyback agnostic mainly because the $5B number thrown around doesn't make a dent. But $10B? Maybe.

What's going on here?. I don't think sales of CT will happen in China anytime soon if ever due to regulations. Is this just a way to display innovation to Chinese consumers? Get buyers in the door?

Look at point #1 👀

I don't have revenue projections but on the investment side, I believe we can estimate about $35k per supercharger. Return on investment obviously depends on utilization. I stopped at a 40 stall location in Dillion SC and I was the only car charging. This $1.4m investment will take a few years...

This is a topic I think this forum should spend some time on and would be of value to all of us. My gut tells me that this will become the next "competition is coming" scare. I don't think it will so easy for China to make a huge impact outside of Asia soon. They will get there but it will take...

The 50% growth rate was not removed. They only reiterated that in some years it won't be 50%. Over time their target is still 50% cumulative annual growth rate. The question was specifically about 2024 and 2025.

I have worked for and with some very polished CFOs who could not get the job done. They looked great, spoke well, smiled often but couldn't deliver the results. I too wish Vaibhav was a better communicator but my hunch is that he was Zach's right hand person and may have had some responsibility...

I like Dan Ives - seems like a nice guy . . . but I find he and Gene Munster stay at the 30,000 foot level and when they are challenged during interviews they don't have the details to rebut (details that many on this forum know as basic facts). I guess we spend many more hours analyzing and...

I'm gathering you were knocked out cold by the earnings call yesterday and only waking up now. 🤕

I don't think a conventional manufacturing process would provide the low cost of production needed to sell an affordable EV with good margins. We could get production hell again but they'll work through it. They need to get the cost of production below $20k per car imo.

Tesla spent $8.9B in CAPEX in 2023 (the highest ever) and still had $4.4B of cash left over. I am Buyback agnostic; I can make a case for it and against it BUT I do believe that if Tesla generates around $2B in FCF by end of Q2, that would provide enough confidence to announce a buyback if share...

From the company's inception through 2019, Tesla had losses and should have been recording a tax benefit each year (sort of like tax income) because these losses would offset income in the future (as you can carry losses forward). But Tesla did not record this Tax Income as it was deemed *more...

I think we have all been there and it stinks. We have faith in the long term but life events have us wanting the run to happen now. I'm not giving up on 2024. If macros are on our side and the narrative changes for Tesla/EVs . . .we can see a move up. Often when I expect the stock to go up it...

You are required to record it all at once. There is one exception, if there is a possibility that a company will not generate enough profit in the future to absorb past losses. So Tesla held off on recording the benefit all at once because consistent tax gains where not likely until now. Why...

The tax items is a negative going forward for EPS. I was waiting for this day. Difficult topic to explain but I will try. Tesla would book a low tax rate in the past because they would take losses from prior years and offset them against the income of the current quarter. So the tax rate instead...

Reviewed the numbers . . . listened to the call . . .read comments on this forum . . . digested the situation. My inner voice right now: 1. Stock was at $100 a year ago and I survived. 2. Tesla took price cuts in 2023 and spent $9B on CAPEX and still generated $4.4B in Free Cash Flow (Cash is...

Reviewed the numbers . . . listened to the call . . .read comments on this forum . . . digested the situation. My inner voice right now: 1. Stock was at $100 a year ago and I survived. 2. Tesla took price cuts in 2023 and spent $9B on CAPEX and still generated $4.4B in Free Cash Flow (Cash is...

Would anyone know when Sep 2026 LEAPS will be listed?

The IRA credits are buried in Cost of Goods Sold (a reduction in costs). Here is an excerpt from the Q3 10Q:

No it doesn't. It's a non-cash item.

Positive Free Cash Flow for 15 straight quarters. Since 2020, Tesla has been able to generate excess cash despite huge investments in factory footprint expansions, new product launches, R&D spend on FSD, Optimus and Next Gen Platform, etc. And this is with price cuts and lower margins over the...