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Pfizer vaccine requires two doses and shipment and storage using dry ice (or ultra cold refrigerator). So still room for single dose, more temperature stable options. But twenty million Pfizer doses planned by year end, assuming emergency auth is granted later this month, so that’s more than...

Is that consistent with a bradykinin hypothesis for the disease, that steroids would help?

If you look at the number of reported cases from testing people it suffers quite a bit from how much who is getting tested changes over time. Waste water testing seems to be an interesting avenue for surveillance testing. There is a large project conducting this testing near Boston MWRA -...

US Stock market valuations suggest a belief the current underemployed rate (16%) won’t stick around long OR that the fed’s printing will make up for it. With school not back to full time in person sessions I don’t see how productivity and employment can return to ‘normal.’ Here in the...

Passing on the savings from scaling up production makes it much harder for competitors to enter the EV market as well. Tesla owning the EV market is probably good for shares. Not sure it’s good for the planet. Tesla EV is increasingly taking on ICE directly in cost of ownership. Even without...

These are really important questions the answers to which, if we had them, would allow much better tailoring of our response. The only problem is how to get the data. Infecting people to gather it would be unethical, completely irresponsible, that level of field data is not worth killing for...

Right idea with wrong timing is still wrong. Stock market since the federal reserve and federal government stepped in in March appears to be entirely disconnected from the state of pandemic. It’s been odd to me to see such a big disconnect in the face of much worsening health conditions on the...

These metrics are definitely something to watch. As much as we all might propose a data driven approach to covid-19 public health measures what I would advocate is an understanding driven approach. Let’s go out and collect not just death trend data, but the data that explains the trend. If we...

it is clearly different this time. In March deaths spiked with about a two week lag in cases. We are three weeks into this second spike and deaths are only just starting to tick upward. But also note in the first spike that the weekly rise and dip pattern is absent as well. Testing capacity...

Even if it’s headed in the right direction - which would be excellent news, I hope it is - What other region has had a significant first peak and then had to move backwards in reopening?

Basic masks don’t protect you. They protect others if you happen to have the virus (asymptomatic and presymptomatic makes up a good portion of transmission). It’s not that hard to wear one. Uncomfortable, yes. On the scale of sacrifices for a better America this is so small we should call it...

This is the real curious situation. Why is CA rising at the same time as TX and AZ. States I have theorized are spiking due to general disinterest across a wide set of their populations in masks and social distance. CA does seem not to fit with these sorts of theories and data. Mask use in...

This article is off the deep end into crazy territory. Reading with a skeptical bent would find issues with almost every point this article raises. There certainly is a threshold where a shutdown makes sense or doesn’t but collecting all these fringe opinions together isn’t a good argument...

Southern FL stats look like they tilt just slightly more severe. Maybe 1/5 of covid inpatients in ICU and 1/10 of inpatients on a vent. Seems like a general rule of thumb that’s been true for awhile. Big uptrend in hospitalizations over the past month, but not the same exponential level of...

The state and local budgets for the next year in the US are being rewritten and revised down at a furious pace due to coronavirus impacts. https://www.ncsl.org/research/fiscal-policy/coronavirus-covid-19-state-budget-updates-and-revenue-projections637208306.aspx Proving to be quite painful for...

I agree. I remember quite distinctly watching the initial US vs. Italy case and death numbers. For about two weeks it looked like the US mortality was much less. Various explanations were invented. Different ages of infected, different strain, different testing. But ultimately as was proved...

There are two things to protect. Yourself (and by extension everyone close to you) and everyone else. All your reasons simply point out that masks are not fool proof ways to protect yourself. No one is saying they are. The mask is to protect others if you happen to be an asymptomatic (or a...

The easier testing is the access the better off US would be. Contact tracers that drive to you if you’ve been exposed could work. Self test though is not a good idea at least with the currently required swabbing for the PCR tests. It takes a trained sampler unfortunately and is moderately...

If you are going to primarily control numbers through contact tracing. You need testing capability for the contacts. Otherwise you are asking the contacts you actually get in touch with to isolate for 14 days on the suspicion of being infected. Offering a free & fast test is better - leads to...

COVID19-projections.com is now a junk model. Toss it in the trash like IMHE, not helpful tool when looking at Southern state outbreaks. Look at their Arizona infection predictions for today and the forecasted trend. They don’t make sense. C19-projections forecast 5.3k total new infections...

Some people will stop doing things they perceive as dangerous. That’s whether the government orders or recommends it or not. But quite a large number of people already viewed these sorts of leisure activities as dangerous. So with new cases are you getting significant new people to cancel...

Predicting the future case rates is hard but even harder is predicting the financial market implications... When do the AZ, TX, FL, and potential (slow burn) CA outbreaks currently growing change the macro economic expectations? Hard to say. And when is the change severe enough to overcome...

Yes that’s an expected trend, but you need to drill down to expected amounts. Let’s say there are 15k infections in the wild. If you do 100 tests you can do them only on people who reported all the symptoms. You might get 50% or even more positive rate. If you go to 200 tests it’s probably...

Texas +4.4k cases yesterday. Positive ratio over 10% (34k tests). Not a good trend.

It’s not unique to NY. The core of Europe has seen similar reductions since the peak. Certainly you can think about something more complex than viewing ‘the population’ as a single monolithic entity with uniform interconnections. You have people that are more susceptible than average and you...

Neither has much to work with for this stage of the epidemic where social ‘mobility’ as some call it is set to change drastically. IHME sets Oct 1 as the cutoff for predicting total deaths. But their model predicts Oct 1 to be in the middle of a second exponential ramp. That’s not a very...

I no longer have a plotting website I’m happy with for US Covid-19. I want to see new case or hospitalizations trends with some level of averaging and percent positive from tests as well at the state level or lower. Rt.live is the closest I’ve found since they added the “show cases” button for...

What do you think the right question is ...

The top line number of hospitalizations on Wednesday was 3476. Monday It was 3377. https://covidtracking.com/data/state/arizona According to numbers in that period it should have only moved by 19. But it increased by 99. If you are always asking how many hospitalizations in the last 48...

I suppose it just depends on your scope. If you use US wide numbers it will look like round 2. If you look at local numbers it will be round 1. I’d be fine saying we need to see double peaks in local numbers to call a wave 2. And this is all based on current trends continuing and no...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/09/coronavirus-hospitalizations-rising/ Hospitalizations in several states have been rising since at least Memorial Day. I’m going to be watching Arizona and Texas closely. NY and Eastern hotspots don’t seem to be rising so it’s not a universal...

Well said. I’m not expecting the protests to suddenly fill the hospitals with covid but in another week or two we will have some data to sink into and given how sudden the change from isolation to large scale interaction was for the admittedly small population of protesters the lack or presence...

Their projections trend up slightly from here only to peak in August and fall presumably due to low herd immunity required when R_t is so close to 1 to bring it back under one. This site has had the projections I trust the most right from when they launched, but I don’t think they’ve nailed the...

If those are long term positions TSLA is likely to pay off. Short term I wouldn’t count your chickens before they hatch. I thought the squeeze on Tesla shorts last winter was epic but the fed appears to have engineered an everything squeeze of epic proportions. ... Or the most awe inspiring...

@Papafox Is there a name for latching onto an initial view and then refusing to change even in the face of increasing evidence to the contrary? Honestly if you were to start fresh what is in favor of HQC as opposed to just not against it? If it were a good drug with all the HQC evangelists...

I highlight China just because it shows what is possible with very strict interventions despite a highly contagious virus. Less strict interventions may also be sufficient. The US will not have the same public health interventions as China! What odds do you assign to the negative cases of...

Yes. rt.live website has been showing slight upticks in their modeled effective transmission rate as the SAH ages out. I will be following it closely due to the potential economic implications. Though I think the US public has little patience for a second shutdown so I doubt any state that...

You’re honestly claiming the four letter word CURE doesn’t appear in your dictionary? Just let that sink in for a moment. Like if The Cure comes up on the radio do you instead hear The Who? Ridiculous.

While it’s true that only a fraction test positive on a PCR test, the early info I’ve read is many, many more test positive on an antibody test. So the working theory is a delayed reaction to covid by 2-6 weeks - PCR would be mostly negative by then. Nobody knows why, one idea is a reaction to...

Not going to engage in this discussion further. Don’t do it @Doggydogworld It’s not good faith discussion to shift the sands so much on your own reference.

That’s a pretty good guess I think. The context of the interview seems to be about hospital capacity management & planning. So the reporter says a potential 0.25% is less than feared that doesn’t have to mean the doctor ever thought 7% or any similarly large number was likely. That 7% could...

The The 0.25% potential IFR in that article was just an example number thrown out to illustrate his point that IFR is lower than CFR. He has not done anything to study that. It’s a casual ‘may be as low as’ kind of guess. Not his best estimate. He doesn’t need to care about IFR because...

Looks reasonable, this website has really fleshed out in a month. Passes the smell test in Europe -COVID-19 Projections | Italy This should be the standard model, IMHE is junk for the drawdown phase. Machine learning is so frequently misapplied I was not expecting it to be a good model based...

When you say “no one expected” it would likely be more accurate to say that you did not expect. Because others did. In Wuhan China the expert assessment was asymptomatic cases were not a primary driver of transmission. You’ll see that summarized in the February 1 WHO sitrep. Note that they...

as a point of information herd immunity at 9% penetration for R 1.1 assumes that the entire population mixes homogeneously. It’s not a bad place to start and probably reasonable for local epidemics. But for a pandemic that’s spread so widely you might need to add sub populations to the model...

Looking at the google mobility reports I was reminded that the real world has ramps and asymptotes to behavior changes. Naively I would have expected step changes in response to public interventions like stay-at-home orders. But people’s behavior is very complicated and a moving target. Not...

at the risk of being blunt both your and IMHE models don’t have the right shape for the fall off in deaths. So they are both poor models imo. Maybe one of you captured peak deaths well. I don’t think that’s the most interesting thing to predict. I want to know when cases will be low enough...

0.5% IFR is right on target with what the professionals have been estimating since February. Here’s an excerpt from WHO’s situation report (#30) for Feb 19 2% IFR isn’t a crazy guess. It’s reasonable if you assume fewer unreported cases which has been less certain due to lack of good...

Germany vs. Italy (or France/Spain) will be an interesting source of comparative analysis in the coming months. Currently deaths per million are 63 in Germany and 415 in Italy. The number of cases are pretty similar and large numbers about 150k and about 190k. Why is Germany different? I...

China is back at work but weekend car traffic is still well off the baseline. New York is on mega lock down. Economic fallout is still in flux but it doesn’t look rosy to me in NYC Data source Tom Tom see: https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/shanghai-traffic/