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you should release them. and please private message me when you do. i'm a reasonably good analyst but i stand humbled by your excellent long term predictions. it's a valuable lesson that those spreadsheets will help me and others learn. thanks. your youtube channel is fantastic.

twitter case study is a good one. there is a pool of hedge funds that does index arb trading, and some large cap managers who take active weightings work around that as well. in recent years the number of hedge funds is down and active managers have lost assets to index funds. so...

i've been off the forum for a while but still have my modeling for the company. i attached an update below. street estimates still look too low for the december quarter. there's an upside surprise catalyst in that i have not modeled additional credits from the fiat/chrysler deal. i would...

i feel fortunate to get even 1-2 quarters right and thus could be rightfully accused of short-termism when it comes to forecasting.

1 warranty issue is sort of a non-issue. warranty reserving levels are lower than they have been, but it also seems appropriate due to better reliability. 2 china revenue was surprisingly low, netherlands + norway > china. most estimates i've seen for units to china are about 10% too high...

most of what you said is correct - however, there are index members going in and coming out all the time. so usually it's quite soon after the qualifications are met at that tesla would get into the s&p 500.

i think you got it right. there was an economic improvement that amounts to about 2% gross margin on the whole auto business. it appears to 0.4% comes from fixed cost depreciation benefits at higher scale, and i think the other 1.6% is higher asp. my guess on the higher asp is a combination...

one of my biggest misses in a long time. here's the actual numbers, i often do a comparison but as i spend less time on tesla in general i just did a quick update instead. a few comments: my cost of revenues were only about 30m high, but revenues were way off, esp. in automotive. considering...

correct - the asp is inclusive of zev/non-zev credits. since i include credits on a separate line, the pro-rata share has to be backed out to get model 3 revenue excluding credits. hope that made sense. the 103m difference is the proportionate share of the 126.4m total credits. i did notice...

i view steep drops in a prior quarter as not stopping at a flat line. it takes a while for the full effect of the drop to flow through a complete reporting period before you see the stable level. i could easily be wrong this quarter if for example uk and australia orders were skewed towards...

agree, but i think it still carries opex and losses around the income statement. i have spoken to solar installers who have seen the solar roof product and they saying it's far from making economic sense at least in the Northern states.

i thought about my numbers again. units are up slightly but more than offset by the combination of higher leasing and lower asp. that's what i am staying with. perhaps deferred revenue, storage, service, or credits will provide a greater jolt than i guessed but i'm not counting on it. i...

this may call for an update on my side. do you have a reference for this? i do a linear estimate from mw installed and i've felt my method is incorrect due to the price per mw being absurdly high now. another question, using your estimation could you determine if storage margins were positive...

solar mw deployed have dropped every quarter on a y-o-y basis every quarter since the solar city acquisition. solar mw deployed has also dropped q-o-q each of the last 3 quarters. i'm going with the trend is my friend and saying mw deployed are dropping q-o-q again, and taking revenues along...

you lose 140m in revenue at 20% gm is like 28m in gross profit but you also lose 90m in one-time charges. that's about 60m. i also have modeled gross profit improvements (slight) in model 3, service, and storage. those other trends are powerful i think and make up the difference, along with...

updating model with latest deliveries, gotta bring estimates down vs my last post. a big problem is the higher than expected lease percentages which reduce realized revenue this period. cash flow could be better due to inventory draw on model s/x. …luv esttslatslatsla...

inside-evs posted usa s/x estimates and they are quite a bit lighter than i thought. so my estimates for s/x deliveries at 19k likely too high. i'd go with something closer to 16k given the inside-evs estimate. units would shift into 3's as i think the overall count is probably still just...

on asp, i have mentioned it before but worth repeating: the s/x asp the way it is calculated in my model is everything in auto that is not model 3, leasing, credit, or known-one timer divided by units. it is not merely s/x revenue divided by units. so that number i estimate for s/x asp should...

i think it's potentially quite a bit more than that. days payables outstanding were very low at the end of last quarter. inventory likely goes up slightly, leased vehicles go up slightly, and deferred revenue creates more non-cash earnings than accruals. however higher units plus modestly...

best guess: past one time autopilot i think was around 35m for a major feature. there are now many more vehicles but perhaps smart summon is a lesser feature. i'd expect $35-75m just from that crude work.

it's not shown but i assume ~10% for s/x and ~7% leased for model 3. i just run solar revenue off some multiple of mw's installed and my methods are crude. the most important thing is with a variety of assumptions for the solar/storage split, i reach the conclusion that storage must have...

my estimates indicate a large stepdown in asp from 19q1 to 19q2. in my experience usually the shift is not fully realized in a single quarter (meaning for example asp went from 105k 2018dec31 to 90k 2019jun30. the q1 asp may get reported as 102k and the q2 as 93k as the trend goes lower but by...

updated model for ~99k total deliveries based on today's email. the 110k order rate number is fantastic and just as important as the delivery count. there were headwinds this quarter from a us tax credit dropoff and likely some waiting for local manufacturing and lower prices in china. if...

just noticing today's news about end of quarter incentive changes. Tesla changes end-of-quarter incentives after some 'abuse' - Electrek i find it interesting we have this end of quarter push/scramble sort of thing happening again. and the incentive structure makes me wonder if tesla made the...

on the delivery estimates, the best forecasting method i know is to use known/estimated deliveries to date from various sources, then make adjustments based on what is known about back-end loading and one time events. this quarter model 3 estimation is particularly hard because the prior data...

delivery estimates: 19k s/x, 84k model 3. model 3 could range 80-90k based on level of back-end loading. they've been swearing up and down that they are trying to reduce back-end loading, and if they have (finally) accomplished that goal deliveries should surprise to the downside.

tl;dr structural tailwinds due to accounting and business facts will push a lot of profit down to the bottom line. lately i have been thinking about some structural tailwinds to profit in the coming quarters. just wanted to throw some of these out and see how others see them. 1. improving...

in the best of all possible worlds i agree. however there is some flex around exactly how milestones are defined, or how tight the performance of the features must be to meet the definitions, or even how to time feature releases. i've seen other companies use these 'opportunities' and wouldn't...

ok after some further work, i think netting out all the one time effects i can think of, the auto gross margin did improve about 2%. whew that was hard to see. basically i worked it out like this: 19q1 auto revenue - credits - one time accounting adjustments - one time autopilot/fsd...

warning: extremely boring post about deferred revenue. drink coffee first. tl;dr: much of tesla's claimed increase in automotive gross margin seems to be from changes in one-time accounting adjustments and accounting (deferral & recognition) of deferred revenue. almost, but not quite. they...

i need some help. probably @brian45011 , @neroden , @ReflexFunds, or @Fact Checking could help. first refer to stock-based compensation table in recent 10q, top of page 31. Inline XBRL Viewer now refer to stock-based compensation table in prior year q2 10q, top of page 28...

sigh... reading this in the prior 10q: Automotive sales revenue includes revenues related to deliveries of new vehicles, and specific other features and services that meet the definition of a performance obligation include access to our Supercharger network, internet connectivity, Autopilot...

here's an interesting little gimmick in the letter. Excluding regulatory credit revenue, automotive gross margin improved by ~200bp (compared to a decrease of 125bp on a GAAP basis). factually this is true, however it is not fully informative. q1 included a -92 million one time hit to gross...

yes but some of the income you see from solar above the operating income line is included in tesla's operating income but belongs to someone else, that's the adjustment for non-controlling interests that hits at the end. the last 3 quarters have totaled 124m wiping out half of what you believe...

that tax credit and inventory purge pushed q2 units up. you can rework numbers easily with a higher assumption.

here's a relatively optimistic look-ahead to q3. i don't believe the numbers i put for deliveries for model 3; i am thinking they will be lower than what this model shows. i gave them 20% gm on model 3, higher s/x gross margin, higher storage and services gross margins too. reduced the...

generally the term "average selling price" refers to a price at which a product was sold to a customer. the credit sales are going to some 3rd party that is not the buyer of the vehicle. also notice they are saying asp was stable. recall in q1 they had some one time sales of autopilot and fsd...

my asp includes credits, which are ~1.2k per vehicle

just did a very fast update with the numbers in the letter. showing actual vs my forecast. note my error on operating income was ~15m, or ~0.2% of revenue. most of my combined error comes below the operating income line. so all in all it was a very reasonable forecast. a few comments: they...

thanks for sharing. looks like main difference on revenue is 5% extra leasing assumed by me for model 3 and roughly 2% lower gross margins than your look. i may need to take my leasing down slightly. i guess they weren't leasing outside of north america, and at best 2/3rds of the units went...

this link had a summary of the fca call: Fiat Chrysler to spend $2 billion on CO2 fines and credits Last year FCA had cash outlays, between credits and compliance payments, of about 600 million euros. That figure, which includes the U.S., will rise “moderately” this year. they mentioned eur...

in the current condition, i don't agree. all my cost estimates put the sr+ in a range of probably not gaap profitable and at best marginally cash profitable. the steep decline in adjusted model 3 margins from q4 to q1 suggest to me mix shift to lower units is a problem. and the constant...

i didn't keep up on this news closely, so i will have to defer to @EinSV 's presentation . i thought the news i saw valued it around a few hundred million. i saw @Doggydogworld post that he thinks the new higher level will continue. i don't know enough about it to conclude that. i know that...

my understanding is you can't sell a credit in two different region for a car sold in only one region. that is, a car that sells in europe gets a european credit sale and a car sold in the us gets a usa credit sale. one car sale can't get both. we have good historical data around levels of...

it doesn't seem to me like they are close to profits. what it looks like is that demand isn't there unless mix is taken down to lower units, but at that lower mix margins suffer too much to make a profit. the way the services loss has expanded and stayed high (both percentage and absolute...

i would say no, at this point it is not just lower production numbers. 18q4 and 19q1 both had production numbers over 60k. the surprise for me in 19q1 is how bad the gross margin actually was. you can see in my model i show 19.7% model 3 gross margin and 14.5% s/x gorss margin for 19q1. just...

all valid points. i think the most important idea to me was that in this "monster" quarter with (even more) optimistic assumptions i could not get to a gaap profit. i should also add that i don't believe my own s/x delivery estimates. my quantitative modeling would put the number around...

hello friends. i haven't been spending so much time on tesla. just wanted to post a quick update with what i feel are fairly optimistic delivery numbers. i wanted to have something ready for when real numbers are out. it's not great so feel free to share your comments. thanks. one majorly...

we do differ on thoughts on margin. my counter: on model 3 they had trouble improving margins in q4. since then they cut prices, introduced lower-end models, and dealt with numerous delivery snafus. the lower unit count means the delivery infrastructure utilization was suboptimal vs last...

gaap earnings and net change in cash