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You are entitled to your opinion, but I would point out that as a moderator you ought to know the rules better than anyone and avoid setting a bad example. Using this forum to make personal attacks against a poster rather than addressing the topic itself would get anyone else a warning or a...

Disagree with me about what? The comparison isn't between causes of fires, it is between the level of incidents required before someone concludes that an investigation needs to be done. That Li-ion batteries burn due to short circuit/thermal runaway is not up for debate. It is a fact.

I don't see how it is off base. Boeing was grounded for several months, for fires, that occurred in only a few of its 787 Dreamliners. The point is simply that even rare events can be indicative of a problem. - - - Updated - - - Hi Nigel, The point was that rare events can be indicative of a...

Hi Mario, I agree that the numbers we have are not ideal, however they are all we have. Given that fact, I would point out two things. First, all estimates made have favored Tesla. More accurate numbers are likely to push the estimations further toward concluding that Tesla is prone to fire...

To some extent I agree. I would point out, however, that most newer ICE vehicles do have fuel monitoring and shutoff systems in place. In fact, that is one of the reasons that people have been saying that the Tesla should not be compared to older (more than 7-10 years) cars in terms of fire risk...

Here is an interesting take on the Model S fires: Tesla batteries haven Energy and Clean Tech From what I can tell, the RAV4EV pack is also mounted on the underside of the vehicle, just as in the Model S. I wonder if Toyota will be doing its own investigation. The one thing the Model S...

All vehicles should have plating and deflecting mechanisms, as this video proves. Had a child been in the rear seat, he or she would have been seriously injured or killed. All manufactures should be required to have plating and active deflection mechanisms. Either that or the gov't needs to...

Very interesting. Electrolytes have always been a big issue for Li-ion. Changing the electrolyte may make these batteries safer, which is a huge deal. If they can really get the cost down, that could be a huge gain for EVs. Thanks for the article.

Precisely what I was going to say. - - - Updated - - - I introduced myself and answered your questions, some of them twice. I told you I like Ev's and am interested in their success. That is why a potential problem interests me. Tesla has been doing very well, but these fires could ruin that...

Where did you hear that certain math subjects were being removed? I like to see that resource.

I see. Thanks for clearing that up. I don't think it is your English, which seems darn good. I think it is just standard internet communication difficulty. Thanks for clearing up you point.

What would NHTSA need to cover their butt for? I think they'll be as objective with Tesla as with any other manufacturer. - - - Updated - - - You already asked a similar question, to which I replied I am not invested in Tesla at all. - - - Updated - - - I think you are right that the feed...

Even if you don't want to include the fire in Mexico, which is not correct given where the damage occurred that caused the fire, you have 2/472, which is 4.24. Your last point makes sense and would have the effect of greatly magnifying the risk of fire to Tesla from underbody strikes.

What are you talking about? I thought it was funny that USAToday reported that the Model S was a "hybrid" in an article regarding the fires. It seems they don't know the difference between hybrids and EVs. The Mods can certainly move it if there is a more appropriate place. - - - Updated - - -...

Apparently USAToday thinks the Model S is a hybrid. Tesla CEO expects feds to clear Model S in fires. At least they get it right in certain parts of the article.

The number of car fires per thousand accidents is well documented at 2.9/1,000. No need to caculate it, the NHTSA has done it for you. If people wreck Teslas at the same rate they do other cars, then the Tesla numbers ocome ut to about 3 fires for 472 accidents. That is 6.36 fires/1,000...

I think there are more than two options. You can 1. Do nothing, 2. face the problem head on, 3. deny the problem exists, 4. embellish it. All four have been chosen by diffent groups. Unfortunately, Elon gives the impression that he has chosen the first option. Honestly, I don't think that is the...

Nothing hypocritical about it. You have presented a single case with no additional support. I only started to suspect Tesla had a design flaw after the third fire. If you want to say that ICE cars can catch fire from underbody damage, then I agree 100%. However, is there a design flaw in this...

Yes, on most EV designs, which is very few to begin with, the passenger compartment is separate from the drive train. That is not to say all, but any means. You are speaking about EV conversions, not designed from the ground up cars. I should have been clearer about that particular point.

What is your line of work in which there not being enough data in such a situation? This thread was moved here specifically to discuss that statistics of the situation, so it seems entirely appropriate to being having a discussion in which people present statistics and argue about them. It is...

I disagree, but I'm tired of saying the same things, so I'll leave it at that. I look forward to an analysis from Mario as I think it will help elucidate why there are two views of signficance regarding these events.. So far, analyses that control for as many variables as possible seem to...

Mario, I would very much like to see your analysis in detail. I know you are busy, but it would be interesting and enlightening to see your perspective in its full glory. If you have the time, I'd be very much interested (even just from a pure probability/stats standpoint and not necessarily as...

The passenger compartment is pretty much sealed from the battery. Such a design is common with all electric vehicles because it allows the drive train/most "operating" components to be separate from the aesthetic components. This makes for easy platform sharing, reduced costs, etc.

Those are two different questions. One is how prone the MS is to fire following collision and the second is how like you are to suffer injury in a MS fire after collision. Both are meaningful. We actually have better stats in the first case (weak as they may be) than in the second. - - -...

Yes and no. It seemed that the article was saying that the stats, while tentative and not conclusive, don't favor Elon's interpretation in the very limited case of collisions resulting in fire. I agree with you that we are bordering on statistical significance, but that isn't the only thing that...

Has anyone seen this: Musk Claim of Fewer Tesla Fires Questioned in MIT Report - Bloomberg It says a few things: 1. MIT did an analysis and says Musk's stats are wrong. He is not justified in claiming the MS has a lower fire risk than other vehicles. Neither is it justified to say that the MS...

Hard to get the details on Google Translate, but the general message came through. Yes, the Tesla has some great safety features, the warning to pull over among them. That should be standarda on every car. As to whether this fire (interestingly in Norway) is useful in determining risk of fire in...

I'd like to see that analysis. Will you being doing it? - - - Updated - - - Remember that the NHTSA is only considering the U.S. fires and still feels the need to investigate.

Fire 2 was not intentional. It was the result of an accident. To be intentional, the person has to willingly bring a flame to the car or purposefully damage it with the intent to start a fire. - - - Updated - - - Why is that?

Great post. It covers most of what I have said, though in greatly more detail. I think the really significant point in all of this is fires/undercarriage strike. There is not way to get stats for that for ICE vehicles, but based on what the stats for fire/accident show, there is probably an even...

Both good points. The NHTSA may not know the details of the MS, but they do know how to carry out a safety investigation. Ultimately, their findings will be helpful to Tesla not matter what. IF they find something, they will say how cooperative Tesla was and Tesla will be profusely thankful for...

It is true that probability of fire will never reach zero. The fact that there was no fire during federal crash testing futher supports the reasoning that the Tesla is not generally prone to fire, but may have a single, unique vulnerability to undercarriage strikes. Basically, you have...

I meant for a sedan. My cars are a small sedan for simple trips and small things along with a larger SUV for hauling larger things (do a lot of projects with lumber, plants, etc.). I rarely drive it though and certainly not for daily activities. So I would way a small electric car (Leaf Size)...

Sure you can, depending on the setting. As you'll note, I said it was bordering on statistical significance. The NHTSA is investigating for that very reason and I would imagine they know a great deal more about car accidents and vulnerabilities than any of us. - - - Updated - - - Do you have...

You assurances aside, I would like to see some compiled evidence rather than an opinion, no matter how informed it may be. We're all subject to bias, so opinion cannot substitute for fact. As I said, I was simply relaying what Elon Musk himself said. I think Tesla gets a great deal of positive...

I don't know that I would say the reporting was excellent. The problem is that they use the same flawed statistics as Musk did to claim that fire in the Model S is far below that of an ICE car. The NHTSA isn't concerned about fire in general, it is concerned about fire following an accident...

A good point. He should be careful with his wording though because the NHTSA already thinks he's too loose in how he treats/refers to them. - - - Updated - - - It is important to remember that the NHTSA doesn't take "requests" from manufacturers. To do so, either for or against an...

I never said they were equal, but that the publicity was embellished both on the positive and negative sides of the spectrum. As I pointed out, that isn't my original analysis. Those words come from Musk himself. He uttered them (I paraphrased what he said) after the factory incident where the...

I think the publicity, as Elon Musk pointed out, is embellished on both sides of the spectrum. Telsa gets way more positive press than any other manufacturer and way more negative press. Often, the coverage is on topics that aren't all that groundbreaking or unique, but they are treated that way...

The Scientific American article was pretty thin on facts. It threw out a lot of statements and generalizations, but didn't back a lot of it up. I was hoping for a better analysis from SA. Oh well, Does anyone know if the NHTSA is moving forward with an investigation or if they are just waiting...

Molten aluminum burns sound awful. It sounds like at least one of the workers involved suffered rather severe burns to both hands. That is probably a permanent disability. Very unfortunate news. I wish them all the very best and as speedy and full a recovery as possible.

Agreed. Tesla needs to determine if that, indeed, is the issue. If so, it's a very easy fix. - - - Updated - - - According to a 2005 report by ABC News, 75% of car fires are due to poor maintenance. If that is the case, then assuming Elon's number of 150,000 per year is accurate, then only...

Great article. Thanks for posting.

As someone who supports the EV industry and who would purchase a Tesla (just not the Model S), I very much want to see some changes. You may be right about this just being a run of bad luck, though it seems there is more to it. It certainly happens. Unfortunately, that won't help with public...

Tesla lost $38 million this quarter. They need wide consumer appeal to turn a profit and the fires aren't helping matters any. Whether current owners would buy again or not is of less importance than whether future owners will buy. Why? Because current owners aren't numerous enough to support...

Demonstrate it. Stop saying it and demonstrate it. Neither you nor Mario has offered anything more than hand waving. Until you provide a full analysis, I'm not interested in your efforts to dismiss the problem through vagary. What is more, the problem is more than just statistical, as I have...

The point is that Boeing had fires and Musk, in his hubris, offered to "help." It was a publicity stunt that is hilarious now that he is facing battery fires. Maybe Boeing can offer their solution to Musk considering they have actually addressed the problem.

Well said and very reasonable. This is precisely my point. Tesla has a problem, whether real or perceived, and must address it. The more responsive and thoughtful Musk is, the better it will appear for the company. There is no doubt the car is good, but if TM comes across as unconcerned...

Except that it isn't an extrapolation. It's just a general observation about rought statistics.

Perhaps there ought to be automatic kill switchs to sepearate each battery pack individuallly as well as some sort of sealant that reacts with oxygen to prevent coolant from leaking.