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    Autonomous Car Progress

    We already do somewhat have V2V communication. It comes in the form of traffic data. Routing decisions are being made based on this information. While this data is nowhere near as fine grained as what I believe you're talking about, the concept is the same.
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    Cabin camera broken

    I've had some luck at keeping the cabin camera going by keeping it cool. I've set the AC on 10 pointed only at the windshield, set the AC on keep when the car is parked, park in the shade and used the windshield washer fluid for additional cooling. This kept me going until around 1PM in Phoenix...
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    Cabin camera broken

    I'm having this same issue. It started in the beginning of June on my 2018 Model 3. As another poster mentioned, it seems to be correlated with heat. Hopefully this can be resolved without a cabin camera replacement. If the cabin camera is safety equipment, shouldn't this be a recall?
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Has anyone checked out the RoboTaxi report by CYBRLFT on YouTube? He is driving a Model 3 with Beta doing Uber in San Diego and doing a good job recording disengagements. Looking at the most most recent data review video it looks like the error rate halved from 10.8.1 to 10.11.2. It was ~3...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My parents are pretty conservative... They're also putting up a 15kW solar array this summer. The prospect of never buying gas again and being totally energy self reliant is a rural conservatives dream. My favorite line in regard to solar & EVs is "It's just like having your own oil well and...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    These are the times that make those times possible!
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Here's the thing: I think he is ticking off the far left; who are perhaps 15% of the population? While gaining in approval with the ~50% of the population right of center. This would result in a net gain in potential customer base.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think this is actually helping the brand. Sure, he's shedding the woke, but most of the country is sick of them anyways. Living in a deep red state, I've never heard more positive things said about Elon than right now.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think he's being pretty rational. Big changes will upset people. Tesla is disrupting a large part of the world economy. This is just the backlash from this realization starting to sink in.
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    AI News

    I am stunned at the progress of AI that I've seen in the past year. It seems like we've reached some kind of tipping point. Dall-E 2 is a great illustration of this. Extrapolate out the capabilities seen in this video just a bit and the implications are stunning...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Something seems off about this graph. The historical GM ICE production figures are too low. GM production history Am I missing something?
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm curious about how the structural pack & front/rear castings will affect body stiffness. I can tell the body in my 2018 Model 3 twists when I go over uneven ground. Musk alluded to improved crash performance, I assume this is due to a stiffer frame.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Earlier this week there was talk about the best YouTube channels for Tesla information. I'd recommend Two Minute Papers. While it is not directly about Tesla, it does offer a ton of examples of the cutting edge of AI research, which clearly has implications for FSD. The videos are short, easily...
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    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    I would be curious to know what the average utilization rate is of a car in the city... I'd reckon that it's less than 10%. If utilization could be increased to 20% while keeping demand constant (A probably unrealistic assumption!), it would follow that a city would need only half as many cars...
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    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    Having lived in a rural area for most of my life, I am always struck by the amount of street parking there is in cities. This seems like a waste of space to me. Robotaxis would allow for a good portion of this space to be converted to other uses such as pedestrian, street cafes, bike lanes or...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I suspect that the coal mines water usage may just be pit dewatering. When mining below the water table it is necessary to pump the water that flows into your pit out as heavy equipment does not work well in muddy conditions/underwater.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This hits the nail on the head, as far as domestic politics. Conservatives need to be onside with the transition to renewables. They need to see it as an opportunity for themselves and their families. It needs to align with their values. Luckily, it really isn't that hard of a sell. Emphasize...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It's pretty interesting looking at Ars Technica's coverage of SpaceX vs Tesla. Eric Berger has some of the best insights around in regards to SpaceX. His work is truly a gem. However Jonathan Gitlin and Jon Brodkin have consistently negative coverage of Tesla. This could be due to the fact that...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think the idea behind this split is that some of that baggage (Uninnovative MBA managers, Unions, Dealerships) can be shed, while some of the applicable knowledge and capital can be transferred to a leaner organization. Whether this will work or not... Who knows? However, we should remember...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Perhaps the idea is to allow for the transfer of talent before the big split. Do it in a few stages so it is less disruptive? This does seem like Ford is positioning themselves for the next century. Good on them.
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    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    This seems like a correct take on the situation to me.
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    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    It's possible that the opposite might occur. The overall amount spent on accidents will be less, resulting in lower overall premiums. With lower premiums, margin % must go up to result in the same overall profit. It is difficult to defend a large margin % from competition, especially in a very...
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    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    Your overall assessment seems similar to mine as far as the hardware. The number one limit is compute. Number 2 limit is low light performance/poor weather performance of the cameras. I'm not however convinced that the camera placement and count is wrong. An interesting experiment would be...
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    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    @Knightshade, I'm curious to know. Do you think that Tesla's current approach will succeed in reaching autonomy? If so, when?
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Russia conducted an anti-satellite missile test last November. https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/11/russia-acknowledges-anti-satellite-test-but-says-its-no-big-deal/ The satellite it was tested at was orbiting at near the same altitude as Starlink sats...
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    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    It's kind of amazing to me... I own a car that drives itself (Albeit imperfectly). This was Sci-Fi like 2 years ago. I'm confused why the discussion is getting wrapped around the axle on semantics. Kinda reminds me of the Louis CK bit of "Everything is great and no-one is happy".
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    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    This hits the nail on it's head. In very specific legal terms, some of Tesla's lawyers told CA DMV that the software was not autonomous. Why? Probably to get around onerous reporting requirements. The software is clearly intended to become autonomous (Do you trust the CEO's publicly stated...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That's totally true... But babies happen when babies happen. I guess the point I was trying to convey here, from my personal life, is that pricing is a massive demand lever that Tesla can pull. To put it succinctly, I believe the demand curve is quite steep.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Personally, we're in the market for another Model 3 this summer. However $45,000 for a base model 3 is a hard pill to swallow. A small price decrease ($2000?) and I would pull the trigger today. With $4/gal gas (And the prospect of it going even higher), it doesn't make sense to buy anything else.
  30. A

    Autonomous Car Progress

    I think that most of these came from the first spreadsheet on the California DMV disengagement report website right? (Disengagement Reports - California DMV) I guess I would be curious to know more context around these disengagements, a lot of the responses are total boilerplate language.
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    Autonomous Car Progress

    I'm sure you're right about Waymo working in more areas than just where it is available to the public. I would assume that there are areas where it is being tested that have not been perfected yet. However, I had not heard that it was working on all roads now! Could you point me in the right...
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    Autonomous Car Progress

    Yea, as far as I can tell right now, the bottlenecks are first software then on-board compute. I think the concern over cameras specs/placement is most likely misplaced. Software is the most difficult to deal with, as it hasn't really been done yet. This a novel challenge. As far as update of...
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    Autonomous Car Progress

    Yea this is totally true, it would be great if they did release official stats, I'm curious. Although, we do have some informal comments indicating that there have not been any accidents in the Beta program. I really wish I could see their internal stats. What is the data that Elon has seen that...
  34. A

    Autonomous Car Progress

    There are a bunch of ways that you can classify "does it work?". FSD is capable of operating on ~98% of roads in the US with limited reliability. Waymo can operate on ~0.1% of roads in the US with high reliability. However, the real question in my head is "Who is going to dominate the American...
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    Autonomous Car Progress

    I have a similar suspicion of some of the data that is coming out of those companies. Without the context around disengagements, it's very difficult to draw any conclusions. As far as I can tell, Tesla has been more transparent than any other company in this realm so far. I mean, I have the...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I find quite a bit of value from some of the posts about FSD. The discussion here is more robust due to the larger set of participants than in the AV forum (Seems like only the the same 3 or 4 folks hashing it out over there). However, maybe it would be more on topic to tie these posts...
  37. A

    Autonomous Car Progress

    I think this is a reasonable argument. How much human labor is involved in keeping these maps updated? Will this approach only be profitable in dense urban environments?
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    From a long term investment standpoint, it doesn't really matter when Robotaxis happen as long as Tesla is the first one to get to a large scale deployment. Think about the Model 3 ramp, they were a couple months behind production targets, but it didn't matter in the long run because no one else...
  39. A

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I have a model 3 in a deep red part of a deep red state working in a deep red industry. I was terrified of how having a Tesla would be received. However, a recent comment from a coworker was "I'm starting to like that Elon Musk more". We have to remember that most fossil fuels for...
  40. A

    Autonomous Car Progress

    I think the big question here is how much manpower went into making that area work. Was it 10 guys for a year? Or 1000? Tesla's approach does appear as if it will have an advantage in scaling.
  41. A

    Autonomous Car Progress

    I always like to give folks the benefit of the doubt when interpreting what they are saying. In this case, it seems to me as if they are talking about the American market. As far as I'm aware, Tesla does currently have the largest sensor suite of a vehicle available to the masses in the US and...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My pregnant wife has been sleeping on the couch next to me for the past 2 hours since I got home. I've cooked all of diner and asked her to get the pasta in the water (Easy way to get her up and moving!). But no, she asks me "When are we getting a Teslabot?". I think there is market potential...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Remember... this is the competition. The folks who take hours to fix a problem that should take minutes to fix are going to build and tune lines for a completely revolutionary product? I think the competition has arrived, however it is Tesla, not legacy, union auto. This is key. A good...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think the key reason why Tesla has been avoiding the upper midwest is the UAW. The rapid pace of innovation they are working with would quickly be stymied by the bureaucracy and work rules that come with a union. When an engineer can't touch the machine he is designing/building, it is quite...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    In Elon's podcast appearance with Lex Friedman he alluded to there being internal data showing that FSD would surpass human safety levels by the end off 2022. It would be great if someone with a bit of twitter mojo could ask him to share some of this data. I would LOVE to see what internal...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This seems to be the case to my eyes as well. It is better to encourage ownership by those who understand/support the longterm vision, rather than those looking for a quick buck.
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    10.8 FSD

    We've had extremely heavy snow in interior Alaska over the past 2 weeks, it's been interesting testing Beta lately. A couple things I've noticed: Edge detection on 100% snow covered roads is pretty good. The car is placing the edge of the road about where I would estimate it to be. The road is...