Search results

If you need something for Dull Dirty Dangerous tasks, perhaps it works better if it’s made to last… BD has working narrow task use cases, optimus is a paper weight wihout software and hyped to the moon doing nothing but teleops. Sigh. only use for Optimus is stock pumping. Start with the...

Yeah, love that video. Impressive electro-mechanics (beats the sh!t of out of Optimus) but won't still pass the Coffee test in 15 years.

Driverless (no safety driver) deployment in any US city, open to anyone in the public, in a geo area approx 225 sq miles or more was what we settled on I guess, by end of 2027. Ten years after Waymo. I give it 20% chance.

An old friend of Elon’s telling it like it is:

That’s about as likely as Tesla solves AGI before Google Deepmind. Tesla has to my knowledge ”solved” zero computer vision or ML research problems. If anyone is aware of anything coming out of Tesla that is a new state-of-the-art approach, please let me know what that is/was.

It won't in any meaningful way in 20 years at least, if ever. Global current ride hailing revenue is plenty to fight over though.

Troll is starting to look like a ”fact” unfortunately. 😒

Unknown, probably not break even just yet. Clearly Tesla is eager to compete for a share of this unprofitable cake.

What? it’s an observable fact. You’re starting to look like a troll, tbh. Please argue based on facts.

No tech has. Waymo is closest by a wide margin.

Like the Cybertruck you mean? It doesn't even pass European pedestrian safety laws/tests.

90% of the world-wide ride haling market revenue today is in major metro areas (and their airports). This can be/is solved using current technology/approaches; eg Waymo. From a commercial perspective TaaS and personal car ownership need to be completely redefined to change that equation. My...

So am I. The money is irrelevant and the escrow costs isn't worth it for a few hundred bucks. Thanks for the discussion though.

6) Minimum ODD size 225 sq miles. Pickup and dropoff anywhere in that geo. 7) Available to anyone in the public. I want to try it myself. 8) Operates in fog and rain (like Waymo today). 1kUSD? Which of the above points above do you have a problem with?

6) Minimum ODD size 225 sq miles. Pickup and dropoff anywhere in that geo. 7) Available to anyone in the public. I want to try it myself. 8) Operates in fog and rain (like Waymo today). F!ck it. Sure, by eoy 2027. $10k USD? We can escrow it.

You need to understand when that I said "decades" I also said "general autonomy". That means Level 5. So you changed the discussion to L5 quoting me. I specifically said "ODD size like Waymo 2024". That's approx 225 sq miles. Again we already have geo-limited robotaxis using expensive hardware...

OK! Level 5. Then 2027 is fine. All public US roads, 365x7x24. No geofence. Any hardware, any vendor in the world, not limited to Tesla. We already have geo limited lidar based robotaxis TODAY, and since 2017 for that matter. What's Tesla's edge except being 8 years late?

Then end of 2026. For any amount on any hardware.

Sure, if we say vision only and HW4 as well.

He could change mine. Any Tesla vehicle with an autonomy stack from Tesla operated autonomously by any owner in any US city on public roads. Autonomous operation. No driver in the driver's seat, for any reason. It's fine if the rides are free at long they are open to the public and you can pick...

I already have a friendly bet with WholeMarsCatalog from 1.5 years back that Tesla wouldn't be any form of Level 3 anywhere by September 2024. He would allow me to change his Twitter bio to whatever I wanted for a year if Tesla wasn't L3 by then. I doubt he'll honor it. The official Teslascope...

I will match any bet from any amount of people that by the end of 2026 Tesla won’t have a single robotaxi charging for rides anywhere on public roads.

There is a big difference between generative AI and a regulated safety critical application space. If someone was injured every time a generative AI got it wrong, it would be banned. It’s not designed for correctness. It’s designed for creativity. Why do you think Ai for cancer diagnosis from...

They are at the same place, more or less as with 11.4. There's not that much of a difference (like 10x), but whatever. At this pace they'll be autonomous by the year 2100. Every order of magnitude gets harder and costlier to solve. I don't believe in science fiction. I think it's multiple...

So how is Tesla getting from 95% of the drives to 99.99999% of the drives without intervention in 6-12 months when it took 3 years to from 5-10 miles to here. What road types and speeds are you thinking for "eyes off". The human is not a backup for the system in L3, btw. The system needs to...

Yeah... That's what I'm saying. In L3 the person in the car doesn't need to: a) Pay attention to the road. You can read a book, watch a movie et.c b) Take over when the car is driving. The car will request for you to start performing the OEDR (look at the road) and then take over after the...

If mapping adds 10% safety and 30-40% ride quality it’s probably a no brainer to do it. For robotaxis, hd-maps probably helps a lot with pickups and drop offs too. I agree with you 100% regarding today’s AI reliability and capability. ML alone is not yet ready for safety critical...

Yes. as @diplomat33 points out, Tesla's perception stack seems a lot less reliable than the robotaxi companies' stacks. I am guessing that means that Tesla are MORE reliant on correct map data than others. The problem for Tesla is that they also require correct mapping of all STOP-signs in the...

It’s simple. General autonomy is most likely 10+ years away. Someone will “get there” someday. In the mean time you try to get to market with a driverless product that is deployable, safe, appreciated and profitable. “From driverless nowhere to everywhere”, is that your path for Tesla? It...

Mapping is like an additional sensor that adds redundancy and safety. in order to get to the end goal, you need reliability guarantees, which ML can't give at present. Hence expensive measurement equipment (lidar), premapping, 360 multimodal sensing. etc. How do you see an occluded sign with...

LOL. Elon went all in in L5 in 2019 on autonomy day. Are you aware of that most analysts value their auto business at about $60-80? Some add $30 bucks for energy business which I think is a bit on the high side. The rest is FSD. Elon did that to max his now-voided comp program, and now there is...

The problem is that Elon always bets "the entire farm". Eventually you lose. The likelihood of losing goes up by a lot when you put a few unsolved research problems in the middle of your trajectory. I heard a story on the All-in pod that he doubled his stakes in a poker game until he won...

So if a Waymo fails or stalls 1 time in 10000 around certain types of construction, your conclusion is that HD-mapping doesn't contribute to reliability? I don't get it.

Yes, you don't need a rocket to reach the tree tops. You can just climb the tree. But people in the tree tops find it that it's not a viable path to space. If we are discussing "viable approaches", we need to talk about the same thing: driverless autonomous cars otherwise the discussion is...

Let me put it like this: Everyone that has gotten to the level of safety needed to remove the driver uses expensive sensing and hd-maps. Until someone actually gets to robotaxi levels of reliability using another approach, it is in my view not yet proven to be viable. It's more of an ambition...

It isn't. In software, the cost to create a new "paper clip" is close to zero though, so it works great. Plus subscription model.

First remove driver, then scale down the system such as remove maps. That's the order.

Have you seen the ”station” at LVCC?

https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2024/04/14/waymos-updated-visualization/

Now all their sensors re built in house AFAIK. The required sensing will be off the self and at the fraction of the cost because of sensor innovation and volumes picking up. It's just a matter of time. Hardware cost work that way... I'm guessing a full system will be at less than $10k in 3-5...

That's everyone's strategy. Software is the way to build a scalable business, hardware or manufacturing is not. Nor is running a taxi business. Waymo only does it out of necessity for now. I'd never buy stock in an auto company. Not even one that poses as a software one. You need to deploy...

I doubt they will be able to by then. Ingress / egress is more complicated than one thinks, but it’s not impossible. Vision only without the front cam might not be safe enough for driverless where people that walk around?

It will be interesting to see if wide-ODD L2 (supervised fsd) will be a thing that the masses appreciate or if it will go down the route of 3D-TV, VR, drones, 3D-printing etc. I'm not saying that it won't be useful to some, but I question the mass appeal as long as the driver still need to...

I thought is was "FSD (Supervised)" not "FSD Capability"

Related: This small reality check on what we know and what we don't right now

Funny you should say this. Both questions are asked and answered in the clip with Drago A I shared a few pages ago.

I had this experience in 2009-2011 when I saw about the same performance from Waymo as FSDb has now... ;) We'll see what trajectory v12 and beyond takes us on over the coming months.

It's easy to do map upkeep if you have the sensors needed on the fleet. In general, maps are a prior (like humans driver better where they've driven before), and it let's you see occluded things like traffic signs and let's you see what's ahead (even if you can't see it yet physically) . Someone...

In a word, yes. Not where it matters. ML perception and planning in both. What heavy lifting? IKEA hardware for one of the hardest problem in our generation. That's not clever. It's stupid. You seem to think that Tesla has more and better actual training data than Waymo. I'd love to see a...