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  1. jhm

    Berlin vs Austin: 2022 production match

    Both Giga Berlin and Giga Texas are ramping up at the same time. Tesla says they'll both ramp as quickly as Shanghai did in its first year. But how about to take this as friendly competition: The Word Cup of Tesla Production! Tell us which team you like and why.
  2. jhm

    Tesla non-automotive AI

    Tesla has been developing impressive AI capabilities in pursuit of vehicular autonomy. But beyond FSD, what big non-automotive AI applications could Tesla ultimately pursue? For example, Tesla AI could pursue autonomous farming equipment. Please share your favorite non-automotive ideas.
  3. jhm

    TSLA Expected Rate of Return

    What is a "long-term expected rate of return"? This is the annual average rate of return over the next 5 to 10 years that you must believe is likely in order to feel good about buying the stock. For example, suppose the TSLA stock price is $1500 today. If believed the stock price would be...
  4. jhm

    Tesla Market Cap 2025

    Please share your thoughts on what you think Tesla will be worth in 2025.
  5. jhm

    Sentiment: summer 2020 @ $1000

    Just taking the pulse on current sentiment
  6. jhm

    Global Deliveries 2020

    Tesla delivered 367,500 vehicles in 2019. Let's discuss the prospects for 2020.
  7. jhm

    Gigafactory India

    India’s lithium gigafactory ambition raised to 50 GW, tender likely soon Will Tesla be participating in this bid to develop a 50GWh factory in India? The incentives look good for Tesla: Reduce minimum alternate tax [duty] by half Import/export duty waivers or cuts for eight years...
  8. jhm

    Who is Tesla partnering with on drivetrain for truck?

    KarenRei says Tesla is partnering with an OEM on drivetrain for truck. Who is it?
  9. jhm

    Tesla Price Action Reformed

    While the Market Action thread goes astray on matters off topic, we at the Reformed Price Action thread self-moderate to stay focused on what matters to the market. Sola Tesla Sola Market Sola Price Ok, so, yeah, the price is down about 2% today. How long we stay in this $340 to $360 range?
  10. jhm

    Dividend policy to disrupt shorts

    Low-cost funds and brokers make money lending out shares held by their clients. Thus, shorting is an inherent part of these business models. They enable shorts and collect rent on shares. Imagine collecting a few percent on the $10B in Tesla shares held short. This is a small industry. The...
  11. jhm

    Bloomberg Model 3 Tracker

    It may be good to devote a thread to following the Bloomberg Model 3 Tracker. Bloomberg Model 3 Tracker Current as of Aug 24, 2018 indications are 6278 per week and 75,910 cumulative. What might this tell us about Q3 production? Cumulative at end of Q2 was 41,030. So 54 days into Q3 has...
  12. jhm

    Option theoretic implications of taking Tesla private

    I'd like to carve out a space for a more theoretical discussion of how options theory can help us understand the implications of taking Tesla private. The offer to exchange a common share for the shareholder's choice of a private share or $420 cash is itself an option. Once shareholders approve...
  13. jhm

    Valuing Tesla as a Private Company

    Let's have a thread where we focus on how to value Tesla as a private company. Questions of interest include: Is Tesla more valuable as a private company than as a public one? How does going public increase value for equity investors? How can we quantify the difference in valuation? What...
  14. jhm

    EV Market Share

    I have a theory. Those automakers that dominate the EV market will eventually dominate dominate the whole auto market. What's more, I think the top 5 or 6 EV makers will capture 80% share of the EV market and ultimately 80% of the whole auto industry. This implies substantial consolidation in...
  15. jhm

    The Next Gigafactory

    Let's devote this thread to discussing the Next Gigafactory. Where will it be? What will it produce? How much will it produce? What national markets will it serve? What parties are involve? How will it be financed? What will be impact on local economy in jobs created and impact on other...
  16. jhm

    Veganism/Leather etc. out of Market Action

    Ha. Perhaps we should move this whole issue to its own thread where we can digest it.
  17. jhm

    Bunch of Motors for Semi

    Musk said the Semi will have a "bunch" of motors.
  18. jhm

    What's the surprise at Semi unveiling?

    Musk hinted that something else would be revealed at the Semi unveiling. What is it?
  19. jhm

    Shorting ICE

    Some traditional automakers will not survive the transition to EVs. What ICE makers will fail? When do they become short targets?
  20. jhm

    Tesla Solar Roof

    I suggest we have a tread for more detailed discussions of the Solar Roof product. TMC discussions have revealed that consumers may have difficulty properly valuing a solar roof. Consequently, Tesla investors may well have difficulty valuing this product line as well. So there is much that needs...
  21. jhm

    Tesla Semi

    Tesla Semi will be an exciting new business. Lots of core competencies come into play. Innovative vehicle design Vehicle autonomy Battery tech and manufacturing Sale, distribution and servicing Swap and Supercharging infrastructure Interfacing with the grid, including electric highways...
  22. jhm

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    As Tesla shareholders, we are painfully aware of how much the price of oil can move this stock. The stock is correlated with oil in the market whether we whether a fundamental connection exists or not. Worse yer, oil has become quite volatile since it began falling in mid 2014. It has been in...
  23. jhm

    Blind Faith Price Targets

    Many people have asked to have a thread devoted to Blind Faith Price Targets. So here's kicking it off. Prior discussion of the methodology and BFPT updates occur at the following location. Going forward I hope to keep all updates and discussion in this thread. The original idea roughly...
  24. jhm

    FX impact potential/scenarios

    Good reading. There's alot of FUD tone creeping into to this. It not clear how much of this is coming from Jonas and how much from the journalist writing up Jonas's note. In any case, there's alot of innuendo. This happens when a writer wants to cast something in a negative light, but cannot say...
  25. jhm

    Psychic FUD predictions for 2015

    Using only my raw intuition to tap into the mystic beyond and ethereal unknown, I have obtained the following Psychic FUD Predictions for 2015. 1) After the Model X is well in production, PS will announce that global demand for Model S has peaked, and Tesla must go on to produce yet more models...
  26. jhm

    AutoNation, online auto sales and the end of dealership protectionism

    AutoNation Takes A Page From Tesla's Playbook, Promises Online Sales In 2015 I'm not sure what to file this under, so here's a thread for discussing how Tesla is disrupting the dealership model. The CEO of AutoNation has been a vocal supporter of allowing Tesla to skirt around franchise laws...
  27. jhm

    "Model M" hoax video

    This has got to be a hoax. A Model M from "Tesla Motors Inc"? Tesla Advertising Electric Bikes Showing a Ducati: WTF of the Day [Video] - autoevolution for Mobile
  28. jhm

    Tesla battery packs: high-margin, non-automotive applications

    Elon Musk has indicated that about 30% of the Gigafactory's output will go to stationary energy storage applications. I believe that diversifying product offerings to address multiple markets have many benefits to Tesla and love the idea of disrupting the utility market with distributed power...
  29. jhm

    Should Tesla publish monthly sales numbers?

    Should Tesla publish monthly sales numbers in a timely manner, consistent with standard practice within the auto industry? At this point, I suspect that long-term shareholders would be better served if accurate data were provided. Otherwise the stock price is left with greater vulnerability to...
  30. jhm

    Gigafactory Financial Modeling

    The purpose of this thread is to form a working group to model economics and financial options for the Gigafactories. While there are other threads that discuss the Gigafactory more generally. I would like to focus this thread on getting the assumptions right and mathematically modeling the...
  31. jhm

    How to Transition Pricing as Tesla's Vehicles Evolve

    Does anyone know how Tesla will handle a substantial upgrade to the Model S. Some improvement are incremental, like reducing the weight by 200 pounds. Others are easy enough to retrofit, such as software or titanium shields. But there will be others that are significant and too costly for a...
  32. jhm

    Behold the Terafactory (aka Terrafactory)

    Elon Musk has said that hundreds of gigafactories will be needed to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. I beg to differ and will propose a wild ass theory to prove that only 20 gigafactories or 1 Terrafactory will ever be needed for total world auto domination. Let's proceed. One gigafactory will...