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  1. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Probably not. Elon seems to often be refering to cash flow when he talks about being profitable, he has himself said that GAAP profitability won't happen for a very long time. They are very far from being GAAP profitable, just look at their earnings report. The obsession with cash flow doesn't...
  2. Perfectlogic

    SCTY Acquisition makes no strategic, financial or operational sense!

    This is a waste of time, for both of us. I have adressed every single point 100 times so we wont get further. I should have quit a while ago, if someone can't understand how residential solar is far from financially viable when it is 16c/kwh and large scale solar is 3.7c/kwh they just don't want...
  3. Perfectlogic

    SCTY Acquisition makes no strategic, financial or operational sense!

    Yes, at some points of the day electricity generation is cheaper than 5c/kwh, for example NG during low demand periods and large scale solar during that same period of the mid day which is the cause of the low net demand. What do you even mean by the last part of your sentence? Yes NG is used...
  4. Perfectlogic

    SCTY Acquisition makes no strategic, financial or operational sense!

    Okay I'm done, I have already explained why what you are now saying doesn't make any sense at all, you just either can't or won't understand it, dream on.
  5. Perfectlogic

    Demand

    Even though you and I seem to be on the same page on the demand picture I don't think you should put too much into the wait going to September. Most of the deliveries take place in September both for the US and international. In order to lower the cars in transit at the end of the quarter they...
  6. Perfectlogic

    SCTY Acquisition makes no strategic, financial or operational sense!

    What do you mean we are back to that? All new capacity in the US is replacement of old capacity. The subsidies will be faded out over the next 6 or 7 years I believe is how long the recent extention lasted. I also think that is fine because by that time solar will be cheaper than FF anyway...
  7. Perfectlogic

    SCTY Acquisition makes no strategic, financial or operational sense!

    The utilities choose the cheapest option, that is their mandate and is seen played out in the recent shift from coal to NG as that fuel cost have dropped. Right now renewables are the cheapest option for new generation added, which is replacement of old plants, perhaps 40 years old. If solar...
  8. Perfectlogic

    SCTY Acquisition makes no strategic, financial or operational sense!

    Solar power in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia The growth of solar is exponential, yes so far it is not a large part of the energy mix, but it will be soon. Just a few years ago solar couldn't compete on price, today solar is the cheapest means of producing power in some...
  9. Perfectlogic

    SCTY Acquisition makes no strategic, financial or operational sense!

    It is very easy to find using google, I think you could use the experience in researching factual information yourself so I won't do it for you. Additional subsidies will accelerate the transition to 100% of all capacity in use. 100% of new additions can be different sizes, 100% of 10 GW of...
  10. Perfectlogic

    SCTY Acquisition makes no strategic, financial or operational sense!

    Of course you did, because it doesn't fit your narrative. But it is not up for discussion, we know the prices of the different things in the cost chain. If you wan't to challenge my numbers then go ahead, otherwise accept the facts. And you don't challenge them by saying it's not true, you do it...
  11. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    This is a great point (that is guaranteed dislikes). There is very little talk about profitability and margins here, people just assume that 25% is great margins and obviously makes for a very profitable product without understand the size of Tesla's overhead. Amazon has a gross margin of 33%...
  12. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Being proud of ignoring any bearish view on the stock you are invested in, how cute.
  13. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    That's funny because 6 weeks ago I predicted that Tesla would do a push for demand very soon if they had any cards up their sleeve, and lo and behold what happened, what might be the biggest push for demand so far with both the S60 and the $1000 discount. That's also pretty funny as the bulls...
  14. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    So what if someone else have been calling the demand peak for years, I haven't, I was bullish 2 years ago. The data we have from production and waiting times are telling a tale I haven't seen before now, the S demand has flattened out the last few quarters at around the 50k/year rate, 1k/week...
  15. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    We have just had 2 quarters of large misses, who says they will hit their ambitious Q3 target, at this point I think the chance of a miss is greater than 50%. The demand situation is also up in the air, did Tesla get a temp boost from adding the S60 that will fall off a bit in a few months? Is...
  16. Perfectlogic

    SCTY Acquisition makes no strategic, financial or operational sense!

    If you wan't the shift to renewables to be as quick as possible, the best would be to stop wasting money on subsidizing expensive residential solar and put the money where you get the most bang for your buck, which is large scale projects. For every watt SCTY puts up we could have put up 3 watts...
  17. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    I think we will drop 10%, the miss was just enormous and the full year guidance was practially lowered too as they are sticking to the 50k delivered in H2, so now we are looking at around 79k. I also think this will add to the increasing investor frustration (we also see here) with targets that...
  18. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Again we have the uber-bulls crying foul as the main thread now isn't in the comfortable level of 90%+ bullish anymore. Demand is probably the biggest influence on short term price movements, and long term as well, and we constantly get new data on the matter so it isn't the same old every time...
  19. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Old GM went bankrupt, it wasn't spun off from the new GM. What you seemed to be suggesting was that you could just spin off liabilities in a shell company, that is not possible.
  20. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    What? GM went bankrupt, then rose from the ashes funded by a government loan.
  21. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Perhaps AIMc could chime in and clear everything up, but I think it is pretty clear from his posts that for him the 3 is the best option, which means he would have opted for the 3 back then too if he had the option. Clearly there are some who just wants the 3 and wouldn't consider the S and vice...
  22. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Of course I am, it would be good for the German people so why wouldn't they? Just like the american manufacturers who got bailed out after the crisis, it just makes sense to do as the loan will most likely be repaid (profitable businesses), and it safes a ton of domestic jobs. AIMc has just...
  23. Perfectlogic

    SCTY Acquisition makes no strategic, financial or operational sense!

    That trading manipulation stuff was alike to what Enron was doing, it was partly because of some very stupid regulation CA passed back in those days to liberate the market funnily enough. It isn't relevant to today in the slightest. The US has some of the cheapest power in the world, the...
  24. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Are we not talking about the public perception of the VW group brands? Why do you think that will change now and not back when the scandal broke? We know about it in EU too you know.
  25. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    That scandal happened a while ago, any effect would probably have played out by now. The bankruptcy of the VW group is an order of magnitude less likely than Tesla, the german government will bail them out almost certainly if the fines turn out to bankrupt them which I also find to be unlikely...
  26. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Let's not forget that most of this years growth will come from the backlog, the X demand has been pretty dissapointing so far. Demand growth for Tesla current lineup seems to have stalled dramatically, perhaps we could even see lower deliveries next year as there is no backlog to burn through...
  27. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Yep, and GPRO even had a strong balance sheet with no debt. We are still burning through the X backlog and the introduction of the S60 might have provided a temporary boost in demand, so I wouldn't be too confident. I think we will run out of backlog later this year.
  28. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Financial Statements for Tesla Motors Inc - Google Finance Take a look again, the value is 3.6B after depreciation. And you are forgetting to account for liabilities, what you should be focussing on when making that type of argument is their equity which you can find near the bottom. This is...
  29. Perfectlogic

    SCTY Acquisition makes no strategic, financial or operational sense!

    I lost interest in this discussion, I have explained the same things enough times. It is impossible to win when you just don't accept any arguments no matter how good and just claim "well it's okay to waste money if its only on .3% of households!", I would rather discuss with a 10 year old.
  30. Perfectlogic

    Website wait times for delivery change

    I assume they issued the guidance during the Q1 earnings call which does seem very peculiar indeed when you also take into account what they said in the delivery statement today "almost half of the quarter's production occurred in the final four weeks". The earnings call happened 5 weeks into...
  31. Perfectlogic

    Website wait times for delivery change

    Didn't you read the main thread? If you add the 5k in transit it was actually a beat! On a serious note I don't think anyone expected that large of a miss, just wow. I don't know how it is possible to miss a guidance set so recently by this much without being able to point to a fire breaking...
  32. Perfectlogic

    SCTY Acquisition makes no strategic, financial or operational sense!

    It is huge per customer (relatively speaking, obviously), I have already explained this 100 times. It isn't an argument to just say well it can't be huge, that should settle it. Something like 82.5% of SCTY's revenue is pure subsidy, it is absolutely huge. They sell power for 4 times the market...
  33. Perfectlogic

    SCTY Acquisition makes no strategic, financial or operational sense!

    Right now utilities are taking a huge loss on "customers" with rooftop solar under net metering rules. I have explained the numbers in details many times, I suggest you go read some of my previous posts as you clearly do not have any clue about the cost structure of delivering power to consumers...
  34. Perfectlogic

    SCTY Acquisition makes no strategic, financial or operational sense!

    The difference in the size of subsidy is the problem. Residential solar is hugely subsidized by everyone else right now, they get to sell their power for 4 times the amount utility scale does, it is a waste of money, and the consumers without rooftop solar gets to pay the bill. There is a...
  35. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    It is bullish so of course it does. Nah, expecting some technical phenomenon to push the stock up very significantly is far fetched. Your thesis seems to be based upon SCTY shorts getting squeezed pushing both stocks up, but at the same time you acknowledge that the TSL/SCTY SP ratio is locked...
  36. Perfectlogic

    SCTY Acquisition makes no strategic, financial or operational sense!

    All you have to do is scroll up a few posts "Hasn't every legit cost/benefit analysis to date indicated that pure net metering is at worst neutral for all parties?" All the bulls from the SCTY thread believes the residential solar model is the cheapest and best in every way, and will take over...
  37. Perfectlogic

    SCTY Acquisition makes no strategic, financial or operational sense!

    Man that's a lot of insults in one post, calm down buddy. I'm only stating the facts, no need to shoot the messenger as they say. Going to assume you are a christian fundamentalist and got upset over that comment I made, I'm sorry for that, didn't mean to upset anyone. Firstly a household with...
  38. Perfectlogic

    SCTY Acquisition makes no strategic, financial or operational sense!

    Another point on this that I forgot to mention which completely invalidates that argument. The utilities don't even have to pay the upfront cost of the utility scale project themselves. When we hear a PPA signed for a utility scale solar project it means that someone else (not the utility) has...
  39. Perfectlogic

    SCTY Acquisition makes no strategic, financial or operational sense!

    That's funny. I mean you are joking right? Just in case you weren't; the utilties don't save anything by outsourcing their 4c/kwh electricity production to SCTY for 16c/kwh. And neither do the consumers, they are the ones paying in the end.
  40. Perfectlogic

    SCTY Acquisition makes no strategic, financial or operational sense!

    Except residential solar already recieves the 30% ITC subsidy, just like larger scale projects. Why should solar panels on your roof get a much larger subsidy than solar panels on a field? Companies behind solar panels on a field don't get to sell power to the utilities at the retail rates of...
  41. Perfectlogic

    SCTY Acquisition makes no strategic, financial or operational sense!

    Don't be ridiculous. How would it make any difference if this connection charge was made for people without solar too? All that would happen would be for the rate to go down and people would end up paying the same, the utility's profit margin is fixed remember? The houses without solar pays for...
  42. Perfectlogic

    SolarCity Bailout Analysis

    Exactly. The CA system really seems weird, which is probably why it is so expensive there. I was just browsing the site of one of the CA utilities yesterday and noticed that you can choose a system of pay where you pay extra during just the mid day hours when the sun is out, but to offer this...
  43. Perfectlogic

    SolarCity Bailout Analysis

    You keep repeating me posting false information when the only thing you have caught me in was remembering inflation data wrong. Meanwhile you refuse to comment on the data that clearly proves your point wrong. The data showing that rate increases have fallen steadily over the past 10 years...
  44. Perfectlogic

    SolarCity Bailout Analysis

    You make no sense, I just admitted my mistake on inflation, it wasn't a crucial part of any point I have made though. But it's fine that you acknowledge losing the argument, the facts are an impossible opponent to be up against.
  45. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    If you can't see the validity of my analogy then I'm afraid not even a "massage" will be able to help you.
  46. Perfectlogic

    SolarCity Bailout Analysis

    @EinSV Was going off memory with my remark about the rate increases being lower than inflation, apparently I was wrong there but that doesn't change much. The rate increases have still been much lower than the standard SCTY escalator of 2.9%/y. You also keep talking around the fact that the...
  47. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Do you think it would be beneficial for Walmart to let people sell them stuff at retail prices even if it was just for store credit?
  48. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Yes that's a good analogy, it is all about scale. And being able to optimize use of the assets.
  49. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Yes those are the main arguments. It's like going to walmart and expecting them to buy products (they sell) that you have an excess of from your own production at their retail prices. Of course Walmart wouldn't agree to this pricing as they wouldn't possibly be able to make any profit buying at...
  50. Perfectlogic

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Don't be rediculous. I pointed out several times and even linked directly to a post suggesting I have mental issues, a personal insult that has the mod himself says is not allowed, but he did not remove it. Instead he removed several of my posts that did not contain any insults, for no reason at...