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@tivoboy, what on earth are you talking about here? 1. On March 29, Tesla tweeted that they produced their 6 millionth car. 2. We need to find out how many cars they produced before this quarter so we can calculate production in Q1 2024 between January 1st and March 29th. Luckily, that's not a...

We will find out the China March export number probably on April 9th. It should be around 28,800 based on my calculation because otherwise inventory would be too high but let's see what happens.

@Mr Miserable, do you have an estimate for the number of exports in March? I'm counting these 5 ships. That's maybe 4*3650 + 2,600 = 17,200 units. Plus let's assume 10K to APAC. That's around 27K. Does that sound right? Thanks. Ship Name, Departure Date, Destination: GLOVIS COURAGE, March 4...

I get different results for the 6 millionth car calculation if I subtract all cars produced in all past quarters instead of starting with the 5 millionth car they reported. There is a public spreadsheet here that shows Tesla's production history in the past...

Do we have any recent VINs? Can you share your VIN if you were assigned in the last 3 days? The last two digits are not needed. For example, 434,5XX.

@birdie2473, @Bryant Tran, @CartierX, @Casablanca, @happyelegance, @j2brian703, @Jaycha2, @kavocat Is it possible to share your VIN excluding the last two digits? For example, 731,4XX. I use these to calculate production. Thank you for your help. @bespoke11, @Fatal, @FielderJones, @Lent53...

Describing Tesla's Q1 deliveries as "light" would be an understatement. Here is data I use to calculate deliveries: China: Weekly insurance numbers. This data is very reliable. In addition to that, we also get monthly China domestic sales numbers from CPCA (China Passenger Car Association), and...

@Lent53, @Vybz, @VS325, @oscarlevin, Is it possible to share your VIN excluding the last two digits? For example, 721,4XX. I use these to calculate production. Thank you. @StealthgreyM3, @jjuice, @EODPat, @battlecraft, @Ebjt1905 Thank you for the VIN. Congrats on your new car. I wish you a...

I'm curious about what VINs people are getting recently. Is it possible to share your VIN excluding the last two digits? For example, 722,4XX, 723,1XX etc. I'm using this to calculate production. Thanks. @Javid010 @Ebjt1905 @xelanoslen @carlosnunezhtx @KiloK @kingdomino @jjuice @battlecraft...

No. I said that about Europe, not about global sales. For Europe, even though Jan+Feb 2024 will be higher than Jan+Feb 2023, Q1 2024 will be much less than Q1 2023, not just a little less. If you look at my tweet here, I was responding to a comment about Europe. Here is a table that shows Tesla...

It's not software-limited. Model Y RWD uses 2170 cells but it has fewer of them than the Long Range version. Tesla used this same method with the 2020 Model 3 Standard Range RWD with 2170 cells. Of course, they don't design a whole new battery pack for this. They just use the existing Long Range...

The new Model Y RWD recommends charging to 80% just like other Teslas with 2170 cells. See

The car shows a different 'Charge Tip' based on the battery type. So, we need to wait for somebody to take delivery and report back.

Yes, the new Model Y RWD at Fremont doesn't have CATL LFP cells because it has 2170 cells but the VIN you mentioned doesn't actually prove no LFP because it is a 2023 model year VIN and in 2023 Digit 7 doesn't have E, and F versions. It shows only E for all 2023 model year Teslas, including the...

According to EPA documents, it has a 198 kW motor. See page 19 here: https://dis.epa.gov/otaqpub/display_file.jsp?docid=58042&flag=1 In comparison, the Model 3 RWD has a 192 kW motor. Page 18: https://dis.epa.gov/otaqpub/display_file.jsp?docid=56622&flag=1 Also, based on those two documents...

Apparently, the 2170 pack for Model Y RWD is just like the 2170 Long Range pack but with fewer cells in it because they left some rows blank to reduce capacity. Tesla has done this before with the Model 3 SR RWD in 2020. It was also using 2170 cells. CATL LFP cells come from China and they have...

Model Y RWD at Giga Shanghai has CATL LFP cells Model Y RWD at Giga Berlin has a BYD Blade battery Model Y RWD at Fremont apparently has 2170 cells

VIN data is very reliable. I started estimating Tesla's production 10 quarters ago and my average error rate is 1.2%. The largest error I made was 2.1%. There is no uptick at Giga Berlin. He is misreading the data. This is not a good VIN chart. You have to zoom in a lot more to see all the...

@UkNorthampton, let's say a Tesla fan reads a news article that says 3,476,000 passenger cars were sold in Europe in Q3 2023. Also, let's assume this Tesla fan knows about the wiki project here and let's assume the wiki shows Tesla sold 93,700 cars in Europe in Q3. What can you do with these two...

Hi @Mio S and @UkNorthampton, Unfortunately, ACEA doesn't include Turkey when they publish these two monthly numbers: Passenger car sales in Europe Tesla sales in Europe Therefore including Turkey would create two problems: It makes it impossible to calculate the EV adoption rate which is...

Yes, Berlin currently exports Model Y to Taiwan, Israel, and Turkey. I'm calculating 11% of production exported in Q2. I estimate it will increase to 15% this quarter.

@Doggydogworld, I updated the public spreadsheet here with the latest numbers for Q2: Tesla Production & Delivery History It shows production by factory and deliveries by region.

Tesla's 3 for 1 stock split happened on August 25, 2022. There is nothing to multiply or change in any of these quarters: Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 These 3 quarters happened after the stock split. However, Q2 2022 happened before the stock split. Therefore all estimates and errors by all...

Exported doesn't mean sold. Exported means the cars left China on a ship. 247,217 includes cars exported in June. Sold means the cars were delivered to a buyer. I'm calculating what was delivered. CPCA's 247,217 includes cars exported but not delivered.

I expect Giga Shanghai to have lower production in Q3 because they have now enough cars in transit to Europe and Australia to enable a constant flow. Imagine you need 3 liters of water to water your plants, but your garden hose is so long that it takes 2 liters just to fill up the hose...

Yes, in Europe, April+May is stronger than January+February but that's because sales are now split more evenly between the 3 months of the quarter. Let me explain this with a hypothetical chart. Each column represents a quarter and the total for each quarter in this example is 95,000 units but...

Prices in China include 13% VAT (Value Added Tax). Tesla collects VAT and passes it on to the government without the money ever counting as revenue. That's how VAT works everywhere. Without VAT, the price of a Model 3 Standard Range before options is 229,900/1.13= ¥ 203,451. In addition to the...

Registrations in Europe were 94,819 in Q4 2022. Q1 2023 is expected to be less than that.

I'm calculating 12,940 registrations in the UK in March (15,802 in Q1). I have looked at all details. I like my estimate. SMMT says they will publish the numbers for March on April 5. It will be published here: Car Registrations Feel free to add your estimates if you wish.

I expect the tax credit for the Model 3 Standard Range to drop from $7,500 to zero for deliveries after a certain date in April or May 2023 because the Model 3 SR in North America uses battery packs from China. Giga Shanghai imports the LFP cells from CATL in China, turns them into battery...

Giga Berlin normally operates 5 days a week but rarely, they have half-day Saturday shifts. Naturally, they break the weekly production record during those long weeks and that's what Tesla tweets. What they don't mention is that they go back to 5 workdays afterward.

Thanks. I have now added Portugal to the form.

The yearly numbers on EU-EVs for Norway in the last few years are practically the same as the official numbers from OFV that we use. It seems EU-EVs temporarily deviates from OFV.no and then shows the same numbers after a while. I don't think we need to find out the reason. It's not important.

Hi everybody. Here is the latest news: This was as expected based on my inventory calculations. This actually happened a day before earlier reports by Reuters and Bloomberg that said the shutdown was expected between Dec 25 and Jan 1, However, I was expecting it to happen earlier because...

You are mixing up US and global delivery growth estimates. 75% is US. Below 50% is global.

Yes, I saw that duplicate too. There are 14 Model Ys in Hawaii and 2 of them are duplicates. However, elsewhere in the US with hundreds of Teslas, there is not a single duplicate. Interestingly, the UK and Canada inventory pages also have a ton of duplicates. Therefore it looks like filtering...

Tesla's 2022 targets that I mentioned in my message with a link to an audio file on Youtube are from the Q3 2022 Earnings Call on 19 Oct 2022 and not from the end of 2021. They are from Tesla's official youtube channel. If you had clicked on those links, this is what you would have seen. I...

Thanks, @deerfield. These two appear to be duplicates. When I click on the details, they both show Peabody-North Shore, 210 Andover Street, Peabody, MA 01960. Because this is very rare, my best guess is, when a car is sold, it takes a while for the website to update. There should be duplicates...

@deerfield, can you add a screenshot or more details (price, zip code, color, model, trim) so we can find the duplicates?

Yes, higher-than-expected numbers for weekly China car insurance would help with Q4 deliveries. The next one will be released on Tuesday, 20 Dec. More than-expected exports from China between now and the end of December would help with Q4 production but not with Q4 deliveries. Ideally close to...

Yes, of course, Q4 will be new records across the board. Why would I disagree with that? Here are the current records: Highest quarterly global production: 365,923 in Q3 2022 Highest quarterly global deliveries: 343,830 in Q3 2022 Highest quarterly China production: 197,412 in Q3 2022 Highest...

My first estimate for Q4 was 400K. My latest estimate on Twitter is available here. It's 428K. If we end up at 428K, my earliest estimate would be off by 28K which would be 28/428= 6.5% off compared to the hypothetical 428K final number. A 6.5% error for the first estimate of the quarter is...

No. To be honest, until 2 days ago, I was assuming that practically all production in the US would be delivered in Q4 except for a small number. Then on Dec 15, Tesla came up with the 10,000 mi free Supercharging incentive in the US (see the news article here) and at the same time, the US...

I'm pretty sure you didn't and you are ignoring the location which I highlighted in my tweet with the red boxes. Add a screenshot and a link so we can see the duplicates too. There are none in the US. Here is Tesla's inventory page in case others want to try to find multiple instances of the...

Q4 deliveries in China will be a new record by a large margin compared to 121K in Q3. At the same time, they don't have enough orders to absorb all production.

Tesla's insurance promotion in China was ¥8,000 between 8-30 November and ¥4,000 between 1-31 December. Starting from 7 Dec in China Tesla is offering an additional ¥6,000 discount. They call this Superimposed Discount to emphasize that it's on top of the other discounts. Buyers who placed an...

Yes, there are charts here that show my error rate at every point throughout the quarter. I started too high in the last 3 quarters and too low for 3 quarters before that. I don't have a bias either way. I follow all exports very closely.

Let me try to answer questions people might have to make this easier to read: Is there a problem in Q4? Yes, the problem is that on 19 Oct Tesla said they expect just under 50% delivery growth this year. You can listen here. However, the current trend suggests 39-41% if Tesla doesn't make move...

This was my production estimate on Nov 9: Q4 estimate: 466,165 Full-year estimate: 1,396,075 Estimated Growth this year: 50.0% Nov 9 was the first time my production estimate reached the 50.0% growth target. Before that, it was just below 50%. I started estimating production in Q2 2021 and...

Registrations in Australia in Q3 were as follows: Model 3: 3,990 actual vs my estimate at 4,700 on 29 June Model Y: 5,376 actual vs my estimate at 6,700 on 29 June Here is what I estimate in Q4: Model 3: 6,000, Model Y: 8,000