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  1. E

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This one I will disagree with you: 4680 was not a bet. It was and is an effort. And, not only did Tesla work it on their own, they managed to convince other battery cell manufacturers to work on building cells of the same dimensions...and those other manufacturer factories aren't online yet...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I fully understand your point. Just a couple more thoughts. Again, I'm not disagreeing with your stance or trying to sway you...just trying to figure out the basic facts. 1) For Elon's compensation package, doesn't he actually pay Tesla? Maybe there's a work-around, but I thought he...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My memories get muddier with time....but all I know is that I can never predict what the stock price will do with regards to an earnings report. Sometimes a good earnings report results in a stock price drop for whatever reason....maybe because it wasn't "good enough" for somebody's...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm not going to try to sway you...but I would like to fix just a couple small errors in your wording: 1) Elon's pay package is not $56B. My understanding is that is options to buy a number of shares at a discounted price. I believe that the $56B comes from an assumed stock price multiplied...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You seem to have misunderstood something: This chart was not put together by somebody on this board, or even by a pro-Tesla source. This chart is also not supposed to be a comparison of EV's for "any real EV shopper" as you say. This chart was put together as part of a study and analysis that...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The googles tells me that Consumer Reports has 2.9 million paid members, and 11 million unique visitors per month. I do feel like many of those who follow consumer reports are more safe and conservative with their purchases...perhaps they type that might typically favor Toyota or Lexus. So, in...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    :D Many possibilities there. Maybe they were limiting "repairs" to things more like component failures, and not collisions. Or maybe the survey asked about owner expense...and collision repair is usually handled by insurance companies. Or maybe it comes down to (I'm guessing here) a vast...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Headlines today showing that Tesla's are the cheapest brand to maintain and repair, beating all other brands for both the first 5 years, and for years 6-10. Data/Analysis from Consumer Reports: Consumer Reports link to the original source: Title: Four of the Five Least Expensive Car Brands to...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Hmmm... FSD External Speaker Large language model Finally, the car can not only drive itself, but also holler at other drivers when needed too. Frees up the human even more. Just need to integrate a light-up hand gesture and FSD is truly complete.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I believe we have heard that this is the temporary solution, and a new/redesigned pedal assembly, when available, will be installed as the final fix. So...cheap and easy to keep people on the road now, followed by a nicer fix for those some people later. I feel like this is much better than...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If folks here are suspicious of your motives, it is not because you present negative info or opinions on Tesla, but rather because you do so while ignoring standard human customs of conversation. Normal human discourse involves a sort of back-and-forth, if you will. One person says a thing...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So, I don't know what story to believe about Tesla's current demand and inventory level. Did they really build up 50,000 more cars in inventory last quarter, or are those mostly just in transit due to all the shipping issues/eco-jerks attacking, etc.? But, I do know that the only place I...
  13. E

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Of course not! ;) You forgot to include how prototypes are easy and manufacturing is hard, and maybe an inclusion of "the production ramp can only move as fast as the slowest supplier or process," and exponentials are hard to understand and hard to predict in the early stages, and how a car...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I assume at least some of those golf cart style EV's you're seeing are the GEM brand...but I think there are other similar brands with similar prices, and I am always shocked when I check the prices and see they are solidly in "real car" territory. The high prices for the incredibly low specs...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I fully agree that Wall Street does not believe in FSD. But, I think Tesla/Elon have used the "a quarterly call is not the right forum to discuss future products" line before. I think they can do that safely here, while re-iterating that development is quite far along. They can again say...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not related to BYD specifically, and more of a personal desire than an actual evaluation of the market, but I'd be very happy with a $10K or even $15K EV in the US, even if the range was only 150 miles. With the $7500 tax credit, even around $20K might be worth it for many, I think. In a way, I...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Agree. For anybody who didn't see the whole tweet, the questions are below. I've also inserted my own prediction of how they'll get answered...mostly non-answers or answers that tell us what we already know. What is the status of 4680? What is the current output? Predicted answer: 4680 is...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Feels like this should be an advertisement covering two bases: Provides a benefit to Tesla owners who are finding that, as supercharger speed increases, the process is actually too fast -- they don't even have time to go into a fast food place, order food, receive it, and eat it. Now the food...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If I remember correctly, before the Model 3 came out, Mark Spiegel (aka "Logical Thought" on Seeking Alpha) made the exact same argument by looking at the price of a Model S, and declared that the Model 3 would cost only slightly less to produce. I vaguely remember him making the argument by...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Agree. At least according to the biography (I haven't read it...I learn from here :) ), Franz was one of the folks that convinced Elon to do BOTH the Model 2 and the Robotaxi. If Franz is still with the company, in good spirits, and smirking while he talks about the current situation, then I...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It's also difficult to separate wants as a consumer from "best for the company" as an investor. Personally, as a consumer, *I* want to own a Model 2. I've got a Model Y, because that was the cheapest EV that fit my needs (7 seats / 4 kids). But I don't need or really even want much of what is...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    A few thoughts...mostly that there are so many variables that are tough to quantify but often get completely ignored or downplayed when assigning "blame" for Tesla's timing. 1) I think part of the "delay" in the Model X was actually that the Model S had much higher demand than expected. Tesla...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Random thoughts and speculation from me: 1) We know that some months ago there was a shift so that the initial production of Gen 3 will be in Austin (rather than the much larger Mexico factory). Following that, maybe it makes sense to do the Robotaxi first in smaller numbers. If there is...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Wait...how old is that image? I don't think any of Elon's 11 kids are currently in the age bracket of the kids in that photo... Yikes! I wonder if the Tesla factory was a target for a specific reason, other than being a large place of employment that would get good publicity. From one of...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Very much agree... To put it simply: - At least initially, Robotaxis will have success in the same places, and to the same degree (although perhaps more profitable per vehicle) as current Uber ant Taxi services. In a city where uber/taxis are a small minority of cars on the road? Robotaxis can...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Appreciate the effort...this may mean it was an odd batch that has this problem...but don't try so hard to break your car! I'd be way too paranoid to even try that. Beyond just breaking the pedal, I just "know" a random neutrino would flip a few bits in the software code somewhere...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Honestly, I wouldn't expect Car and Driver to be a reliable source on relating what Elon and others from Tesla said about battery developments and timelines. I am not assuming bias...just that these aren't authors who would be familiar with this type of material, and are also likely to throw in...
  28. E

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Slight correction: If I recall, the 25% desire wasn't for his personal control, but for his view of a balanced level of influence. Elon wants to keep control away from profit-hungry investment firms focused on short-term gains and no care for the longer-term future. Elon wants himself (who he...
  29. E

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    None of us know that answer...and theoretically, the best clues should be in his own words (spending time with family, and finding the next interesting professional challenge eventually). This is of course complete speculation on my part, but some possibilities: Maybe some big challenge he was...
  30. E

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I see you prefer to believe the words of first-hand sources, rather than the words repeated ad-nauseum by various media outlets to push their chosen narrative.... Your ideas are intriguing to me, and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter. And an awesome first hand source right here. Not...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I don't think I've heard that the production line is shut down. I only saw/read that deliveries are paused for about a week. If the fix, once finalized, can be easily done "in the field," I would expect that production and shipping will continue, and they just need to finalize the fix and then...
  32. E

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    "My plans are to be a recess monitor for my 2nd grade daughter, practice my violin, go to a bunch of bucket list sporting events and take my very patient wife on some long intended travel." Beautiful.
  33. E

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Very informative diagrams! Thank you! The Model S and most other vehicles (I think): the accelerator and brake both hinge ABOVE the pedal on a fairly long arm. The pedal also has a slight curve to it. As you push the pedal forward, it looks like the pedal will become slightly more vertical...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I don't personally think that the US military is currently craving the Cybertruck... But a lot of the criticism here seems to assume that a "military vehicle" must be ready for an active battlefield. The military needs many vehicles transporting humans and supplies in many areas far from...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Sortof joking, sortof not: isn't that what we've all been doing buying FSD-capable SEXY cars the past few years?
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think the idea is that more people using FSD will be more people to disengage/correct FSD's mistakes in an ever-wider variety of situations. One way or another, that human feedback should direct the training for future versions...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ah yes, all part of the troll's game of acting like any statement or tweet Elon ever made is a "promise" that must be kept until the heat death of the universe. Any deviation results in "Elon lied and he/Tesla broke another promise!" And, don't forget that if Elon doesn't respond to some random...
  38. E

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Elon's text: "The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self-driving capability with regulatory approval. [At] that point, the value of FSD is probably somewhere in excess of $100,000." I think it's important to note that in one sentence he says "price" and in the...
  39. E

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There's something interesting and complicated there. *Most* people buying a new car aren't going to hit the 8-year, 120,000 mile warranty. So, for many folks, increasing the warranty won't affect them...at least not directly. But, a person buying the used EV would probably like some assurance...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Personally, I hope Tesla keeps an FSD purchase option, at least for personal (not business/robotaxi) use. It would also be nice if Tesla applied a real value to the FSD purchase when a used car comes back to them. The rumors I hear now say that if you trade-in a Tesla with purchased FSD to...
  41. E

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    100% agree. I didn't even look at your spreadsheet...but you did math. The fact that you are willing to do some math indicates that you are willing to understand where your money goes. As a result, I also assume you have over $500 available for an emergency. If you are in the US, those...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It is perhaps cruel of me to say...but I believe it's a cruel reality: MANY people, across many income levels (a) have no true idea where their money goes, and (b) are stuck living paycheck-to-pacheck, in part, because they spend what's in their pocket on non-necessities without thinking it...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Some googling tells me that both BYD and Samsung are in some stage fo development with 46120 cells (so, 50% longer than a 4680). The BYD version seems to be LFP, and Samsung's is connected to future BMW EVs.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Even sillier is the people who think it is bad from a company/investment perspective that Tesla isn't selling a less expensive version (yet). I just don't understand people supposedly thinking from an investor perspective*, but complaining about Tesla only selling the marked-up Foundation Series...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    On a related note: is anybody on this forum connected to Compare daily satellite images of Tesla production locations ? That site posts satellite imagery of the assorted Tesla factory sites, with updates as new images become available. But, I've been unable to fill that side of my obsession...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Side note on that last point about brake rotors/pads: If you don't use them much, the pads and rotors on any car can last a long time even without regenerative braking....so the statement Elon made is perfectly reasonable. An honest reader/commenter would recognize that this was a tweet, not...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I was by no means making an argument in Reuters's favor. I was more commenting on how journalists and their publishers keep getting away with falsehoods about Tesla, as long as they claim there are "sources." ...."We were only reporting what our precious sources told us...and no, you don't get...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Knock on wood or something. Don't jinx it! We all know that if a drunk guy with no seatbelt on drove a stolen car at 100 mph into the side of a Cybertruck, while that Cybertruck was on FSD but currently stopped and penned between other cars at a stop light, and the drunk flew out, over the...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think you read meaning I didn't intend. Mostly my fault, since I tend to ramble on and type too much. I totally understand that small car doesn't mean cheap, and I've noted before that initially offering high trim/higher cost versions of the Model 2 could be useful. I was also sort of...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I won't guess about which group is larger...but you're obviously right that more people buy less expensive cars in general. Adding EV, though, introduces a couple more variables. 1) for whatever reason, the Model Y outsold the Corolla and the Camry and the RAV4 (globally, but not combined...