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  1. V

    At what point will Elon Musk face a margin call?

    Does anyone know at what point (what stock price) Elon Musk would face a margin call? As folks may recall, EM borrowed a significant amount of money in order to buy shares of Tesla in the most recent common stock offering. I believe one of the risk factors is that EM may face a margin call and...
  2. V

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Tesla is crashing back to earth like every massively unprofitable bubble stock. Delude yourselves at your own risk. All stocks ultimately return to their fundamental valuation. The value of an auto company that makes money is maybe 1.0x revenue. The value of an auto company losing tons of...
  3. V

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Ever heard of massive sarcasm? - - - Updated - - - Tesla is crashing back to earth like every massively unprofitable, underperforming bubble stock.
  4. V

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    As long as Musk talks about the GF, has good excuses for Model X, and shows nice photographs of the Model 3, the stock will go back up to $280.
  5. V

    March Model 3 Unveil just drawings? No actual car? Disappointed.

    I think you're right. Although Musk said, "First pictures will be available end of March" I am assuming he means in addition to the roll-out event where they physically roll out a prototype onto a spinning stage or something like that. I can't imagine it just being 2D photographs. I really do...
  6. V

    March Model 3 Unveil just drawings? No actual car? Disappointed.

    I agree. Tesla as a battery company alone is worth maybe $40 billion. Batteries are going to be really, really big.
  7. V

    March Model 3 Unveil just drawings? No actual car? Disappointed.

    Yes I speak my opinion. So let's call me a troll. Love it! Make me the subject, rather than the financial disaster that is Tesla. Add me to the list of those who ought to be silenced. Or part of the evil conspiracy to kill Tesla (whose Model S I like; I just think the stock trades at...
  8. V

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    More likely it is a conspiracy of: Oil companies Car dealers Short sellers Wall Street GM the guy who test drove the Bolt I am 100% sure.
  9. V

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    I agree. 12,000 deliveries in Q1 would hardly indicate a fundamental problem. As long as they talk about the gigafactory, show progress on the Model 3, and report being able to produce at least 100 Model X's per week, then that should support the $25 billion valuation. Go Tesla!
  10. V

    March Model 3 Unveil just drawings? No actual car? Disappointed.

    Yes, please close this thread so that we don't have to hear from people who dare point out interesting news. Like the widely reported news that Tesla will not actually have an unveiling of an actual physical car, but rather some 2-D drawings or photographs or pictures -- based on what EM...
  11. V

    March Model 3 Unveil just drawings? No actual car? Disappointed.

    So funny. Bolt is real and has been reviewed by several independent car magazines. Tezzluh model 3 will be pictures only lol. Not even model X has been reviewed. Bring on the hate. I have insulted the great Tezzluh.
  12. V

    March Model 3 Unveil just drawings? No actual car? Disappointed.

    esk8mw is correct. Love the S, hate the X. Valuation seems insane hence I am short. Trying to be objective though and not succumb to my own biases. But I did listen to EM on the video and it does sound like we will get pictures at end of March and not an actual prototype that drives on stage...
  13. V

    March Model 3 Unveil just drawings? No actual car? Disappointed.

    View the video yourself at the 12:30 mark: Tesla doesnt plan on showing everything about the Model 3 at the March unveiling, will wait closer to production in 2017 | Electrek Pretty clear that pictures are just that...pictures. As in pictures only. As in there will be no physical prototype...
  14. V

    March Model 3 Unveil just drawings? No actual car? Disappointed.

    OK trils0n, I will take your word for it. I cannot imagine that ALL Tesla would show is just pictures at end of March (no prototype rolling onto the stage).
  15. V

    insideevs.com estimates Jan2016 U.S. sales S=850 (-23% vs. 1/15) and X=370 (84/week)

    insideevs.com estimates January 2016 U.S. sales of Model S = 850 (-23% vs. January 2015) and Model X=370 (84/week). Pretty disappointing IMHO.
  16. V

    March Model 3 Unveil just drawings? No actual car? Disappointed.

    Really deonb? That is your response to this massive disappointment? Parse my words? Nobody cares about me. The subject is Tesla and the massive disappointment of no Model 3 unveil. The subject is not me, Audi, evil oil companies, evil dealerships, Mars, SpaceX (yeah it's cool). Focus...
  17. V

    March Model 3 Unveil just drawings? No actual car? Disappointed.

    Holy smokes it is like I am living in the Twlight Zone. Tesla just told us that instead of the wonderful Model 3 UNVEILING (a car drives out onto a rotating stage, everyone goes "ooh" and "ahhh"), we will get PICTURES -- ONLY. And all the believers say, "Well that was always the plan, to just...
  18. V

    March Model 3 Unveil just drawings? No actual car? Disappointed.

    I hope you are correct trils0n. Because the way I read it, at the end of March they will show pictures -- ONLY -- and not an actual car. Call me crazy, but I assumed the Model 3 "unveil" at the end of March meant we would get to see an actual car. But perhaps some revisionists will educate me...
  19. V

    March Model 3 Unveil just drawings? No actual car? Disappointed.

    1/31/2016: Speaking at a special event at Tesla’s base in Chambourcy, France, Tesla CEO Elon Musk hinted at a staggered unveiling for the Model 3 similar to that which we saw for the Model X SUV. “The first pictures of the Model 3 will be end of March” Musk said. “I am being a little coy here...
  20. V

    Model X Design: Ugly or Sexy? Prius?!

    X = ugly S = beautiful outside (but cheap inside)
  21. V

    Model X Design: Ugly or Sexy? Prius?!

    Model S is stunningly beautiful. Model X is ugly like an inflated Prius. My 2 cents
  22. V

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Good luck to you all. I'll just let all you believers enjoy your confirmation biases and blindly hand over your hard-earned money to Musk at the next capital raise.
  23. V

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    You're right, I won't change any minds here. Which makes this a great website to read because no matter how bad Tesla fails, there will always be fans to support it. I'll just enjoy reading. Good night all!
  24. V

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Latest quarterly gross margin was 26% I believe on a real GAAP basis. X seems infinitely more complicated, so I think 25% for the X is incredibly optimistic. Also, most car companies make gross margins more like 10-15%. 25% is again, incredibly optimistic. Model 3 will never make money...
  25. V

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Read my old posts if you wish to see my full opinions. I much prefer to enjoy reading all the true believers talking about how the Model 3 is already better than this or that car, how Powerwall is already a huge hit (it has zero revenue to date), how Tesla will become Uber or assimilate Uber or...
  26. V

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    I actually assume they will sell 300K cars by 2020 -- quite optimistic in my opinion. In that year I assume Tesla sells 75K of S and X each at a gross margin of 25%. I assume the remaining 150K sold will be Model 3, at a gross margin of 10% (I think in reality it will be near impossible to...
  27. V

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Good luck to you all. Love all you believers. Remember, massive losses which grow faster than revenue. Massive negative cash outflow that grows faster than revenue. Company trading at $30 billion value compared to $4.2 billion in 2015 revenue. Still in a massive bubble. This message board...
  28. V

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Because the stock was ridiculously priced as a massive bubble two years ago. Now it is just somewhat of a massive bubble. Returning to a normal valuation for a company selling 50-100k cars a year, losing more and more money, in a hyper competitive industry. Sorry to speak the truth. Looking...
  29. V

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    dha you make reasonable arguments. I don't disagree on the pension obligations. I just think it's going to be really tough to get from where they are today (major losses) to even come close to 10% overall profit margins. Yes Tesla will capture the "dealer margin" due to its direct sales...
  30. V

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    I assume 2020 revenue hits $20.2 billion and gross margin of 19.8%. I assume in 2020 they sell: 75K Model S @ASP of $88K and gross margin of 25% 74K Model X @ASP of $88K and gross margin of 25% 150K Model 3 @ASP of $47K and gross margin of 10% Most importantly I assume overall profit margin...
  31. V

    Seeking Alpha Jan 4 Tesla analysis - very negative article

    Thanks adiggs. I appreciate the thoughtful response. Here is a question I truly need help with (not being sarcastic or snarky). What is it that is so special about Tesla? Is it the fact that: - Tesla is 100% electric? - Tesla provides instant torque? - Superior interior to any other...
  32. V

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Thanks trilson for your responses. I think you're correct on the reason for the mix shift. But it does not change the reality that for the first 9 months of 2015, gross profit grew a paltry 15%. Now admittedly, Q4 was a big quarter for deliveries. But it will be interesting to see the...
  33. V

    Seeking Alpha Jan 4 Tesla analysis - very negative article

    Haha, you are correct Auzie, entertaining is the better word. That is probably why I spend time on this board. It is as much an interesting to study the psychology of investors and their points of view. I admit I have my own biases, and I am fascinated to see it all play out. Nobody is bad...
  34. V

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Perhaps I should have posted this here since it deals indirectly with valuation. Interesting analysis I looked at. Note the 17% decline in Model S average selling price (ASP) in the first 9 months of 2015 compared to the same 9 months of 2014. And the corresponding drop in overall gross profit...
  35. V

    Seeking Alpha Jan 4 Tesla analysis - very negative article

    Interesting analysis I looked at. Note the 17% decline in Model S average selling price (ASP) in the first 9 months of 2015 compared to the same 9 months of 2014. And the corresponding drop in overall gross profit. This excludes leases which are an increasing percentage of revenue -- but that...
  36. V

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Thank you for stating the obvious truth, 30seconds.
  37. V

    Seeking Alpha Jan 4 Tesla analysis - very negative article

    Analysts are the wall street analysts that tell you Tesla is worth $400 per share. They do this to increase demand for the stock offerings which are snapped up by retail investors. I am a former M&A banker but not an banker who sold stock offerings. But as an M&A banker I know exactly the...
  38. V

    Seeking Alpha Jan 4 Tesla analysis - very negative article

    History rhymes I wonder if Tesla longs realize there are/were equally passionate fans of Twitter, Gopro, 3D Systems, Netscape, CMGI (remember that one?), Kozmo.com, etc. Every time, there is a reason why fundamentals don't matter and massive losses are ok so long as the revenue keeps growing...
  39. V

    Seeking Alpha Jan 4 Tesla analysis - very negative article

    Agreed. That was my point. They are not sold out. They are allowing people to enter their name and email address into a form. I laugh when I hear the arguments about how Tesla is supply vs. demand constrained. That is so meaningless. The point is they are not selling the product yet. If...
  40. V

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Question. Why have there been no in-depth reviews of Model X by independent expert car magazines such as Road & Track, Car & Driver, Motor Trend, Edmunds, Consumer Reports, etc.? Just seems weird. Not sure whether this is a positive or negative?
  41. V

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Question for longs and shorts alike. Why have we not seen any independent reviews of the Model X by Road and Track, Consumer Reports, Motor Trend, Car and Driver, Edmunds, etc.? Isn't it normal to allow these "experts" to review the car as soon as it is being sold? I would think independent...
  42. V

    Post Initial Problems with the Model X

    I am sorry to hear about all these problems. Hopefully Tesla will pull it together on the fit and finish because at that price you all deserve a perfect car.
  43. V

    Seeking Alpha Jan 4 Tesla analysis - very negative article

    Amazing the disconnect from reality. Tesla has sold no Powerwalls. Go to the website. You will be able to simply make a "reservation" which is a form where you enter our name and email address. That is all you can do. Nothing has been sold. Amazing how people live in their own imaginary...
  44. V

    Tesla Sues German (actually Swiss) Auto Parts Maker Over Model X Door Delays

    Ask yourself whether you want to hear others' opinions. Or maybe you all want to hear only positive opinions on Tesla. Again, I'm short the stock due to the math. Nothing against Tesla as a company. I'd love to have a Model S. I think I'll go back to reading. Not sure why I would attempt...
  45. V

    Tesla Sues German (actually Swiss) Auto Parts Maker Over Model X Door Delays

    What is the point of the lawsuit? Move on, Tesla. What next? Sue to new lithium companies Tesla signed deals with because -- surprise surprise -- they can't deliver any lithium? I am suspect of companies that claim they would be successful, if not for those evil... ...falcon wing door...
  46. V

    Tesla Could Be Poised For Big Win: FTC To Hear Pros & Cons Of Franchise Laws

    I am heavily short Tesla. But I do think it's unfair they cannot sell directly to an end customer in certain states. That is just plan anti-competitive. Car makers should have the freedom to sell direct, or use dealerships, or both. My short position is simply based on the stock price.
  47. V

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Thanks Discoducky. I do enjoy these discussions and hope people understand that my decision to be short the stock is just a financial one. A healthy market has longs and shorts. I don't want to hear opinions just from those who agree with me. My short thesis is primarily based on my belief...
  48. V

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    I do think there is a risk of poor guidance in Q1 2016. I have nothing to base this on, other than a hunch. I still have a tough time believing the massive ramp of sales that occurred in 4Q 2015. Something smells fishy. We shall see when the company releases its Q4 financials. Then we can...
  49. V

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Sure enough, when I plugged in your assumptions, I got a valuation per share more like $288 than my $65. So it is all about the sales and profitability assumptions. I just think it is more likely it takes much longer, with more hiccups. Those differences produce a very different valuation...
  50. V

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Actually Toyota and BMW have overall operating margins of 11% and 9%, respectively, which are much better than F and GM which are mid-single digits. So you could attack my assumption that Tesla only achieves sub-4% operating margins in the long run. You could argue that Tesla should achieve...