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I just finished Isaacson’s book. I agree it’s a must read even for those of us who already know most of the story. One thing that particularly struck me was how many of Elon’s extended family members have been employed by one of his many companies. Not only is he extremely close to his family...

My bad for using the shorthand of “WS.” What I meant was “finance community”, tens of thousands of folks who invest the big bucks that ultimately move the market. I’ve got lots of friends in that community, and until recently they were almost all skeptical about Tesla and TSLA. Some WS...

WS loves beats. But this SP pop is about more than just 20,000 additional cars sold. It’s a continuation of the Great Awakening that started when Ford and GM adopted the Tesla charging standard. While some WS players still don’t get it, most now understand two key things we’ve known for...

Ford and GM adopting the Tesla charging standard could be a pivotal moment in how WS perceives Tesla. Most WS folks I know have been dismissive of Tesla from the start. They have always assumed that legacy auto would eventually overtake the upstart. And for a decade they have twisted every...

Ford and GM adopting the Tesla charging standard could be a pivotal moment in how WS perceives Tesla. Most WS folks I know have been dismissive of Tesla from the start. They have always assumed that legacy auto would eventually overtake the upstart. And for a decade they have twisted every...

Today could be a harbinger of good times ahead. All the things that have been spooking the market are receding. Interest rate hikes may be over, the troubled regional banks have been bought, inflation is coming down, earnings are strong. It’s still a highly traumatized market. Any littIe...

Ark Invest has a nice graph showing the addressable car market at each price point. In order to address more than 50% of the market, the price has to go below $30k.

Elon could not have been clearer on the call that they have been lowering prices to match demand with supply. The only reason stated in the call for why they had to lower prices more than they anticipated (based on the miss on their own margin guidance) is the economy. But other factors could be...

For those holding common shares for long term appreciation, nothing has changed. Tesla is executing very well, and has the cash, and cash flow, to achieve all of its long term objectives, which remain mind-bogglingly large and lucrative. But for those who, like me, are looking one year out...

While an earnings beat would be lovely, what I really want to hear during the earnings call are the sweet words “we project margins to increase as the year progresses.” That would destroy the bear narrative.

Perhaps one of the upcoming new Tesla models is a Tunnel Car: more room for passengers and luggage, no need for fast acceleration or aerodynamics, no steering wheel, just a very basic box that can reliably and safely go 40 MPH without driver.

I’m one who is posting less these days. I’m waiting for the data coming soon: P&D report, then earnings, disclosing the margins. I backed up the truck last year to buy more LEAPs. Nothing to do now but wait for the numbers to speak for themselves. Wake me up on the earlier to occur of...

As EV costs come down and everyone has multiple friends and family members talking up their EVs, the last remaining concern for EV holdouts is charging on road trips. Todays WH announcement is the best of all worlds for Tesla on that score. It sends a strong message that many more...

You joke, but it’s a poignant example of the real impact of Elon’s politics and tweets. This friend is a staunch progressive and his opinion of Elon has morphed this year from bemusement to outright loathing. Four months ago he would not have bought a Tesla solely for political reasons of not...

Another anecdotal data point: a good friend of ours is the last holdout in a small group of friends to buy a Tesla. He owned a Leaf, and was dead set against buying a Tesla, partially because of price, partially because of negative feelings towards Elon, partly wanting to be different...

The guidance on 2023 vehicle production didn’t sound like sandbagging or a strategy change to me. Elon could not have been clearer that the expectation for 2023 is at least 2 million vehicles, but that they are conservatively guiding 1.8 to reflect the possibility of unknowns that often impact...

You’re missing something important in “what changed.” Besides Tesla production and macro environment, another factor is competitor production, particularly BYD. It is no longer true that Tesla has no competitors. So supply and demand is impacted by the production of all competitors, not just...

Gotta love Elon’s cajones. The man never hesitates to go all in. And from his perspective, FSD is a fait accompli, so the margins are going to be in the software and services. The master plan could not be simpler: massive growth of production, priced to sell. I don’t know what happens...

All good points, Gigapress, and superior manufacturing may enable Tesla to reap higher margins. But superior enough to maintain 30% margins going forward against a ramping competitor? 20% ? Lower? BYD is both a proven fast copier, and a proven innovator (e.g. , their blade battery). Where...

Until recently, investing in TSLA was a slam dunk. Profits were going to skyrocket as production increased. But BYD has now made TSLA a more speculative investment. BYD has produced a car that competes against the Tesla flagship cars, and is ramping production and sales to multiple continents...

Thanks. I think I found your analysis. It’s very helpful, but if I’m following it right, your China Competition case has Tesla margins at 20%. That’s high for a mass market car. What happens to your 2024 TSLA PE-based value if margins drop to 10%?

Has anybody here run a financial model of what Tesla’s annual profit looks like in a fully mature EV market? Make your own assumptions, but mine would be something like: Tesla selling 10 million units per year $25k ASP No longer any pricing power since competition can make similar product, so...

Here we go again folks. Those of us who’ve been here awhile remember well the Battle for $120. Followed by another epic, the Battle for $130. So many classic reruns to look forward to in 2023, I just loaded up on popcorn. Happy New Year to everyone. I’m signing off until the craziness...

My investment thesis is unchanged: the transition to EV cars is unstoppable, and Tesla is the EV leader, with strong margins and a culture of continuous innovation. Admittedly, in the last six months, two risk factors have increased. In terms of competitors, BYD has emerged as a more serious...

Elon has a tendency to speak apocalyptically. He's always talking about how Tesla almost went bankrupt, when undoubtedly he could have raised massive amounts of capital at any time. His Mars mission seems to be motivated by avoiding the destruction of the entire human race on earth. And if we...

I also suffered through both the AAPL and TSLA declines. They were equally painful and unsettling. One is just much more recent. I missed a lot of the AAPL rebound and I hope to reap more of TSLA’s rebound, but I’ve learned not to try to catch a falling knife. Patience is the path.

Me three. I bought 10 chairs at $124. Of course I recognize the SP may go lower still, but I want to someday show my grandchildren (if I’m lucky enough to have any) that at the end of 2022, with Tesla ramping on three continents, it was possible to buy TSLA below $125. That should be a good...

What is the opposite of irrational exuberance?

Right, who knows? But I’m looking for a reversal of TSLA and the NASDAQ to call a bottom. This will require so much change in TSLA sentiment that it carries the whole weight of risk-on assets on its broad shoulders.

In order for this to be the bottom for TSLA, it’s not enough that TSLA goes green. NASDAQ has to go green too. In this epic struggle between market bears and bulls, strength in TSLA could drag the NASDAQ uphill, but the shorts are going to fight this to the death. If NASDAQ ends green today...

I’m going to buy chairs today, mostly because we are getting close to what I believe will be a good P&D report, and hoping that this poll removes some of the overhang. But the risk of Tesla brand impairment from Musk’s political activism remains real. That overhang is going to continue until...

While I do believe that Musk’s overt anti woke left politics will cost Tesla millions of potential customers (and if you disagree with that, just wait for 2024 when Musk is one of DeSantis biggest supporters), it still comes down to what is a reasonable discount for future demand concerns...

Are you obsessively reading every post here? Are you trying to make meaning out of every short term move of the SP? Are you dissecting the veracity of every Tesla rumor? Then you are like me! And I’m too old and experienced to be wasting my time and energy like this. So here’s my early New...

For better or worse, Elon Musk is no Steve Jobs when it comes to product launch presentations. And as long as he insists on emceeing these, product launches will continue to underwhelm, from a presentation perspective. But behind the presentation is incredible substance, for which Musk has no...

I’m not about to play the fool’s game of predicting what the SP will do today, but I believe this morning’s action is a harbinger of good things to come. The macros are horrible this morning, but TSLA is single-handedly trying to pull up the market. Everyone here knows that a declining NASDAQ...

The 86% share that Tesla has of the luxury EV market is stunning, and the most important statistic. It's unclear whether Tesla will ever try to compete in the non luxury segment (with a rumored Model 2), but regardless, the profit per car in this segment of the market is slim. The real money...

Musk has many missions, my friend. I’m going to take a stab at listing the most obvious, but I’ll probably miss a lot. And I won’t even try to list them in order of importance, because they are all hugely important. 1. Reducing the climate impact of carbon emission. 2. Reducing reliance...

Musk has many missions, my friend. I’m going to take a stab at listing the most obvious, but I’ll probably miss a lot. And I won’t even try to list them in order of importance, because they are all hugely important. 1. Reducing the climate impact of carbon emission. 2. Reducing reliance...

I have no doubt that the more Musk goes public with political views, the more he will repel some number of potential Tesla customers. (And that’s true whether those views skew left or right). But that’s one of the things I like about Musk. He’s principled and courageous. Unlike most CEO’s...

I made my first nest egg during that Apple run, and it was just as lucrative and just as frustrating as making my second nest egg with TSLA. Back in 2009 I was so surprised that Apple’s PE was around 15 after launching the greatest consumer product of all time, but back then a lot of analysts...

I’m really surprised that the favorable CPI/PPI numbers didn’t set off a sustained rally. The initial jump in the NASDAQ is all being clawed back. TSLA is very unlikely to turnaround until the NASDAQ does.

I just bought 600 shares, the first time I have ever bought common equity. Normally I buy DITM options, but I’m waiting for a clear turnaround in sentiment before buying more options. But I couldn’t resist buying a few chairs at $170. I’ve always been a sucker for Thanksgiving holiday sales.

Really, rugby players go to a fancy French restaurant after their match?

Yes, the Elon conversation at the Thanksgiving dinner table is going to be brutal this year. I plan to laugh along with everyone else. And I plan to keep on laughing when Tesla reports huge profits next year.

First Rule of Venture Capital Investing: You don't invest in ideas and companies, you invest in executive leadership. There's only a very finite number of people with the skills and traits necessary to make a business a success. Musk has them all, in spades. I'd jump at the chance to invest...

In looking at the California sales numbers, the only Tesla laggard is the Model X. It’s doing well, but it’s not dominating its segment like the 3,Y and S. Our family has owned all four cars, and the only one we sold was the X. For us, the gull wing doors were a net negative. Tesla would do...

Wow, Tesla’s dominance in California is stunning. I pay super close attention to all things Tesla, and I had no idea they were already the best selling passenger car in the state. Not best selling EV. Best selling car. I knew this day would come, but not this fast. It’s only one state, but...

I’m not saying that Elon’s selling, and other Elon non-Tesla activities, didn’t have an impact on the SP this week, but the biggest factor to me always seems the same week after week: the outsized influence of options. Doesn’t it look to you that the last two days has been mostly a gargantuan...

I’m not saying that Elon’s selling, and Twitter “overhang”, didn’t have an impact on the SP this week, but the biggest factor to me always seems the same week after week: the outsized influence of options. Doesn’t it look to you that the last two days has been mostly a gargantuan effort to...

Your reference to Thomas Edison brings to mind that we have a photo in our house of my wife’s uncle with Edison. We cherish that photo. Our ancestor with Edison! The greatest entrepreneurial engineer ever. Until Musk. It’s mindblowing that we are now living in a time with someone even...