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  1. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    It's more interesting that mid 2017 delivery is only on the grey color next gen seats, and not the tan or black color next gen seats. so it appears they're not discontinuing the seat itself, just the grey color is delayed. Does that mean they ran out of grey cows? I was seriously considering...
  2. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    No SMPP2 today... So you all are relieved of minutely refreshing duties till 12:01AM tomorrow...:D Elon Musk on Twitter
  3. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    I Agree on the X. However, they already had bunch of X built but not delivered in Q1, and they have been operating at >2K/week capacity for a while now, which leads me to believe they produced larger % of S to compensate for deliveries to ROW. The volume has to go somewhere, regardless of S or...
  4. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Not sure how you are looking at it, but based on the numbers, it seems like a decent beat to me... So, Inside EVs estimate, 5700(800+1200+3700) deliveries of Model S for Q2, and 4630(850+1600+2180) Model X. So for the US in Q2, they are estimating 10,330 S/X delivered. Inside EVs have...
  5. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    I don't think having to follow through on their purchase commitment with panasonic is the driver of this merger. Remember, Tesla recently purchased not so small volume of batteries(not for car use) from Samsung? Tesla won't be buying extra batteries from anyone else, if they had excess batteries...
  6. CButterK

    random chitchat

    well, I live a very "human" lifestyle, so getting confined to a dog house with other dogs crimps my style...:p Yeah, snippy section and chitchat session for the 1st time both within 24 hours! Must be doing something right! wonder if they offer free dog biscuits in these sections...
  7. CButterK

    random chitchat

    I ended up in the dog house this am too, for suggesting that OP had 2 Model 3s on order, and the fate of it...
  8. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Oops. Somehow copied over wrong calculation and went with it. will correct the original post shortly. Sorry.:oops: Edit: can't edit original post. the Q3 numbers & Q4 numbers should be changed, but overall delivery prediction is still close to 90K units for me.
  9. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    I see a bit higher number than that... Q1: 14.8K delivered. What was stated by Tesla: exiting Q1 run rate = >1600/wk, & >2000/wk as of "few weeks ago". So, Q2: (1600x5wks)+(2000x7wks)=22K produced, and @ 85% rate(Guidance 20K produce/17K deliver), 18.7K delivered? Q3: 2100x12 (non linear ramp...
  10. CButterK

    Suspension Problem on Model S

    So, how do we get him to come into the USA, or would he be considered a fugitive as long as he stays in OZ?
  11. CButterK

    Suspension Problem on Model S

    He appears to be trolling all of Musk's businesses... Tesla, Space-X, Solar City. Leads me to believe he has an agenda with Elon Musk, not specifically Tesla.
  12. CButterK

    Suspension Problem on Model S

    Is this the same Keef that claimed Space X rocket landing was a hoax, along with all his other "facts" he knows about Tesla and Solar city? I wonder how his credibility was effected by subsequent successful landings. I don't see him commenting on them anymore... Keef Wivaneff's public profile...
  13. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Question for anyone that can post link to a document. The difference between current 90 pack vs, the 75(or 60) pack, is it strictly reduction of number of cells going into a pack or is there more to it? And same thing with the old 85 pack vs 60(or 40). Thanks in advance!
  14. CButterK

    Articles re Tesla—Fact or Fiction?

    LAPD Chooses BMW Over Tesla For Electric Squad Cars It never fails to amaze me, how they can twist the truth and still call it "factual article". It was clearly stated by LAPD that the i3 will only be used for "municipal purpose", and Tesla was being considered for "high speed pursuit...
  15. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    And "generate more sales", increases capacity utilization, which spreads fixed costs over larger volume production, which actually increases margins across the board, not decrease(assuming they already spent the money on add'l capacity via capex).
  16. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    I listened in on the SH meeting. I must've missed where they said they can produce enough CELLS for both TM & TE at the GF. If you have link handy, I'd appreciate it. And ultimately, they could not know, as they don't know the true demand of both beyond current demand. Perhaps it could be more...
  17. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    215XX produced, 183XX delivered.
  18. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    I'm aware of the 3X capacity statement. However, 35/50 vs 105/150 cell/packs at 3X(they did not specify which is 3X), it still seems they run short of required cells vs Packs capacity. So why wouldn't they buy cheap cells from Samsung for TE Powerwall, if the cells that they can make at the GF...
  19. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Agreed. Looks like we can drill down further to deduce that the samsung cells are specific to powerwall, within TE... The Only Explanation for Tesla's New Supply Agreement With Samsung
  20. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    So, Panasonic focuses on the higher end 20700 cells for cars only moving forward, leaving no capacity left for low end cells for TE? Or, Samsung, in the hopes of becoming a bigger player(equal second source to Panasonic) for Tesla in the future, are providing the TE cells at a price that...
  21. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    I read your post on the China thread. That is great research! My own numbers(not China) seem to point to the accuracy of the code #s. However, if the China Reservation is only 7% of the total, that is a bit concerning. I think Tesla already announced that China had the 2nd highest reservation...
  22. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    That large shipment from Samsung were low capacity, low density 18650 cells, which WILL NOT work for cars, so it has to be for TE. So that said, I'm very curious regarding this move. Considering Tesla just announced that they can produce up to 3X their original cap, I wonder why they need...
  23. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Tesla's J.B. Straubel Says Jeju Island's Carbon-Free Future Sets Example, Confirms 400,000 Model 3 Pre-Orders So... Looks like Tesla finally reached 400K reservations, per JB, after the 373K confirmation(as of 5/15) a few weeks back. If they can maintain this >30K per month rate, it will be...
  24. CButterK

    Tesla Autopilot Competition Developments

    May’s self-driving car report details how Google teaches its cars to honk So... Google car can honk all by itself now. What can Tesla do today? :p Why do I get this feeling that Tesla's Lead is getting at least a Million Miles per day farther than the competition?:D
  25. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Agreed. I suspect the NHTSA will operate in a similar fashion to the US FDA. Every country has their own version of these agencies, and our version tend to be more conservative than the rest of the world. A lot of US Medical related companies do clinical trials in other countries and seek...
  26. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    reading further, lower capacity and much higher weight. It would be counter intuitive to utilize it for the Roadster. I vote TE.
  27. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Exclusive: Tesla Takes Delivery Of 1.74 Million Samsung Battery Cells Hmm... Tesla buying 18650 cells from Samsung, not the new 20700 cell design. So these I speculate, are not the additive to Gigafactory production. So... Is this to supplement current Panasonic production rate for the Model...
  28. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Agreed. But I must have missed something, as what has been stated AFAK is, "supercharging capable", "less than 60kwh", and "min 215 miles of range" for the base model. So, if they confirmed 60kwh & 250 miles range for the base M3, that is awesome news!
  29. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Maybe we're all chipped by then, so no need for phones?:D Or you actually have to get out of car and get fingerprint or retina scanned? I'm sure there will be a backup solution, just incase you forgot your phone(VERY UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN, :eek:)
  30. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Great Point. But as an alternative, could it be you purchase the "rights to use SC" independent of a specific vehicle, which then won't go with the car when you sell the car? I thought of this as a possible alternative program, where most Tesla owners will never purchase another non Tesla car...
  31. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Exactly. 2 other comments made yesterday points in this direction as well. I forget the context, but I recall him saying without hesitation, 50K model S & 50K model X(reference to production?), and also, the Model X struggle at this point is a Software issue(to be resolved within a month via...
  32. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    That's an interesting thought. Denser utilization of ALL available space, 3 dimensionally... Although based on his comment's, I imagined a more elaborate machines performing more automated assembly functions in the same amount of space as before, therefore allowing for additional assembly lines...
  33. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Yup. Per their statement of "deliver more than 50K in 2H 2016", they will need to average 2084(50K/24 wks)/wk. My guess is that they will deliver more than 17K in Q2, to insure they don't have to average much more than 2K/week in 2H 2016 to meet the min 80K for 2016. Also assuming 17K delivery...
  34. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Well, however you are doing it, keep it up! Your prediction on today's action was spot on!
  35. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Utilizing my highly sophisticated and scientific method of extracting O2 out of my Gluteus Maximus, I feel that it is likely as much chance as unlikely that we will close at $225 today. Unless it does close above $225, then it was likely that it would, and if it doesn't, then it was unlikely...
  36. CButterK

    Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

    IMHO, VW needed to show good faith publicity as part of damage control to win back Customer confidence to purchase ICE products for now, as they try to bridge the gap with announced PHEVs for next several years, then BEV by 2020. My guess is, VW won't have a functioning Gigafactory(not even 14%...
  37. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Well, the VW Batt factory news broke almost 48 hours ago here... Exclusive: VW Considers Building Own Battery Factory - Handelsblatt Global Edition So, two full trading sessions thus far, and Mark Spigel(aka Logical thought) has been FUDding about it since 10AM today here... Mark B. Spiegel...
  38. CButterK

    Articles re Tesla—Fact or Fiction?

    Faraday Future Eyes Land In California For Site #2 Anyone have any constructive input on why FF will need a 2nd factory in Nor Cal, considering they just barely broke ground in Las Vegas?
  39. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    I apologize, but I think I'm still missing your point... What exactly is the case do you think I'm making? All I'm saying is, I agree with Julian that the Model 3 has less execution risk due to how long it's been in the works(at least 6 years) relative to the S/X development and leverage...
  40. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Sure... You are right. I'm sure the Model 3 development team just sat there watching the clay model dry up & rot in a corner for the last 6 years, while working on Model S/X and not leveraging anything they learned from it... Peace. Just sayin back':confused:
  41. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    This... I believe Tesla would have introduced the Model 3 1st, if they could've pulled it off from a cashflow perspective. When you connect the dots with info out of Tesla over the years, it points to a theory that Model 3 has been actively moving forward in parallel with Model S/X with some...
  42. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    That is my assumption as well, as Tesla is not limited by the Max charging input. So technically, I don't see an issue. But my worst case scenario is, what if Apple sets up their charging infrastructure specific to them(private), and does not allow for "pay to use" by Tesla or other EVs? Is that...
  43. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Report: Apple interested in charging station tech for powering rumored electric vehicle So, question for the resident Technical gurus here... Based on Apple's interest in charging infrastructure. No matter how they decide to move forward, this is a good thing for Tesla, right? Specifically...
  44. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Considering Aero doesn't have meaningful impact <40mph, and the avg speed of a typical driver is <38mph, I don't know that just the improved Aero on the nose is enough for that much improvement. Do we know how much CD has improved as a result of the new nose? And didn't Tesla say all refreshed...
  45. CButterK

    Website wait times for delivery change

    Over on the Demand thread, I had some dialog with him regarding the specifics of the deposits and wait times. His response was certainly entertaining...
  46. CButterK

    Website wait times for delivery change

    And also supported by the increase in deposit amounts...
  47. CButterK

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    I believe he is asking us to kindly leave him alone and not engage him any further, so that he can take a well deserved break away from having to respond to us "hyper bulls"... I think we should all accommodate his wishes to help him out. Poor guy must be so stressed out from his sudden rise to...
  48. CButterK

    Demand

    Your theory regarding people paying for the car in full and waiting is mildly interesting. However, I believe Tesla does not require you to pay in full, nor have loan/lease paid, until the car is near completion at the factory. So it is highly unlikely, there is much of that situation. And even...
  49. CButterK

    Articles re Tesla—Fact or Fiction?

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/3976795-tesla-risky-short-sale?app=1&auth_param=apdkj:1bk1qrd:dcd484ddc5c38b9999594135d0c96527&utoken=89357ed5bea4a336fca90ddff425303a Not the usual short suspect, but still the same BS about tsla going to $0 eventually. Reminds me of Antw@t W. and Polo...
  50. CButterK

    Demand

    OK, so only 10K backlog you think.... Sooo... what do you think the other $340,000,000.00 deposits($390mm-$50mm(10K backlog at $5K each, Sigs at $40K are already delivered)) are for? even if you try to count the M3 deposits, it was less than 150K deposits on the 31st, so $150M max, but Tesla...