Search results

No he didn't. The announcement stated that as of the 19th every car produced would have AP2. Your statement is a distortion and is quite misleading.

Yeah actually he was saying that.

How did we go from "Tesla didn't tell me they were planning to upgrade AP a week / month / quarter ago before I ordered my car and now I'm mad" to "Tesla is selling people AP1 cars even though AP2 is released?". We know that the former is true, but most of us contest the idea that Tesla did...

Listen, I agree that Tesla needs to improve in _many_ areas. Build quality, reliability, accuracy in their timing projections... all of these are areas of notorious weakness for the company and you are right: any one of them could be a real problem at scale. So yes, they need to substantively...

That's not what I said. I said they will complain because the feature is not activated, or because it is taking longer than they think it should to activate it.

When I ask my magic 8 ball "will some buyers of AP2 complain that the activation period is taking too long?", it says this:

You are absolutely right - I nearly posted the same thing in a different discussion. Very soon we will begin hearing grumblings from people who bought AP2, but cannot use it because the feature isn't enabled. And we will hear all of the same complaints: Tesla should go faster, it's just...

Can you define what it is that Tesla did which is crude or rude?

It isn't about being on the side of a company, it is about pointing out irrational expectations when you see them. You tend to speak in absolutes, and that's fine, I suppose - it does make things nice and simple. But the problem with that is it results in statements that don't accurately...

In my opinion, your post demonstrates the extremely difficult nature of these demands. In your case, you expect that Tesla should have warned you at least two months before unveiling their new hardware. You are basically saying that they should have burned a quarter in sales and deliveries...

I think part of what feeds into this meme is a failure on the part of those proposing discounts, etc. to appreciate scale - this is an example of that. Tesla delivers thousands of vehicles per week already - that's far greater than the "dozen" that you suggest. Scale, and longer term...

Do you imagine that if you dropped 100k on an Audi or other luxury brand you could get a credit for buying a car the day before the next year's model drops? No, not happening.

I don't agree with the letter, but I do think you point out some obvious things about the announcement that most people are ignoring. Buried in the hype is the reality that everyone buying a Tesla today, and paying for Autopilot, will not be able to use it for some unspecified period of time...

Look, you are not running these numbers. An 8K discount for everyone who purchased in the last 30 days is > $52 million dollars. That's certainly not 'even cheaper' than a "million or 2 towards rebates.' When Tesla is building 500K cars a year, what you propose would be > $328 million cost...

Speaking up doesn't change some things. Speaking up doesn't make it possible to remanufacture and extremely complicated integrated system and turn it into a different one in a cost effective way. Speaking up doesn't make it possible for a business to sustain millions of dollars of losses in...

Why would you consider it unkind to witness someone yearning after the extremely improbable and urging them to reconsider? It seems like you conflate encouraging magical thinking with "having heart". Much of what OP outlined isn't really possible. Tesla can't upgrade older cars to the new...

Dear Elon: I want a pony. With a clown riding on it. Standing on the top of a Model X. With a 900 mile range. On a beach. In Hawaii. For free. See how effective that was? Absolutely nothing happened. Elon did not appear and grant my wish. Yes, I do feel bad for the original poster...

I don't disagree, and it makes sense on an emotive level. But it's not rational. We all know that sometime soon Apple is going to obsolete the MacBook Pro we just dropped $3000 on. We know that. We don't know when, and Apple certainly isn't going to tell us. And it just so happens that you...

It's simply not reasonable to expect to be able to upgrade the hardware of most modern cars - this is especially true for the car's core sensor / safety systems because these involve sensors integrated into body panels, wiring harness changes, new electronics, and more. While it might be...

In February of one year I bought a new Honda. 6 months later, the new models hit, and they now had a rear facing camera and passenger side camera as standard (something that was a lot more money previously), and also featured a large center display, a vastly improved media system, as well as...

Yeah, I do... because their blog states exactly that: "Before activating the features enabled by the new hardware, we will further calibrate the system using millions of miles of real-world driving to ensure significant improvements to safety and convenience. While this is occurring, Teslas...

So... not to rain on any parades... but straw poll: if you are taking delivery of an S or X with the new hardware, how do you feel about the fact that when you get it, you might not be able to use: automatic emergency braking collision warning lane holding active cruise control All features...

1) The OP has not provided any proof whatsoever that there was an actual contract. A deposit is not a sales contract, and Tesla is abundantly clear about this. 2) The OP has not provided any indication, if there indeed was an actual contract, that said contract did not include a seller's right...

To understand how Elon feels about this stuff, you might want to consider this: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ctea8zUVUAESePt?format=jpg&name=large like I said, several of their offers to you were more than fair. You never said whether or not you have a real sales contract or if said contract...

I think all three of these demands are a bit over the top, especially number 3. In case you aren't aware, Elon has been known to simply refuse to sell a vehicle to someone he thinks is being unfair, so demanding an apology from him because some employee may or may not have made a mistake is...

Ok - so I'm surprised nobody mentioned these factors yet, so let me do so: 1) It's important to know if you arranged Tesla financing. Anybody who buys a car off the lot using dealer financing isn't signing a sales contract, they are signing a retail installment contract. They are not the...

The part of this that people are missing (or ignoring) is this (emphasis mine): "In particular, it emphasizes that semi-automated driving systems – ones in which the human continues to monitor the driving environment and perform some of the driving task – that fail to adequately account for the...

It seems a given that this will squeeze SCTY shorts in a most impressive manner. Watching the after hours price action on TSLA, though, I am curious as to how that impending squeeze might factor into TSLA tomorrow. Why: Because it seems reasonable to assume that at least some of the short...

Very few cars on the road today feature automated safety features as standard equipment. Automatic braking, adaptive cruise control, rear collision avoidance, side collision avoidance, etc... some of these are offered as upgrades on some models, but they are not standard equipment by any...

If Google bought Tesla - which I think is extremely unlikely - it would be unlikely to exert that kind of pressure on Elon. Further, Google's completely autonomous cars are not going to see wide-spread use for at least a decade, no matter what the autonomy zealots think. It is utterly...

Scale is hard. Everyone with even a little experience doing it knows that. Elon has set an aggressive timeframe that is designed to push his suppliers, contractors, and employees. That was necessary and it was the right thing to do. Everyone also needs to understand that while the goal as...

Ok. Imagine you are a hedge fund and hold a million shares. "Hey Mr. Hedge Fund - I am going to create 10 million more shares of my company. I would like to sell as many as possible of them to you at a share price exactly the same as the price per share of your existing shares. I must...

I'll grant you it is not a huge number. It is, however, bigger than you think. First, I would argue that you need to make this calculation based on the float, not on shares outstanding. Market price dynamics are going to be based on the float, primarily. The float is about 102 million... so...

I'm not sure it is that simple. You are right that Tesla has a strong valuation... Actually, it has a valuation that is by most metrics significantly out of line with forward earnings estimates. That means that, even with the number of shares outstanding, investors are taking on an...

I share the view that a Tesla bankruptcy would be unlikely. However, I think you greatly underestimate the difficulty, and the costs, of what Tesla is now undertaking. The amount that Tesla will need to scale its infrastructure in order to produce 500K cars a year... is very significant, and...

^ This. This seems to be the common denominator.

Just so everyone understands, Elon has laid this issue to rest. Even fully autonomous Tesla vehicles will be operable manually, because in his view people should be free to manually drive their vehicle if they want. That means that all of the edge cases and the arguing over whether or not an...

What about all those Fire TV, Kindle, Echo, Echo Dot, and Echo Tap devices? Last time I checked, Amazon actually makes quite a lot of things.... more in fact than Google (or Alphabet, if you prefer)... yet few would accept these sorts of P/E numbers from them. I get what you are saying and I...

I notice you left Amazon out of your chart. Why is that? Maybe because of this: AMZN P/E I'm not arguing that TSLA can double... but seemingly insane valuations based on forward earnings are not as uncommon as one might think. TSLA's estimated P/E for 2018 is 61.06, less than half of...

Musk's statement was that he hoped for 100k in 2017. You are assuming that is in one quarter. Regardless, it's not out of line even if it were. Only if you assume 200k cars in one quarter is it out of line, and that would absolutely be an assumption and little more.

Can you source that please? The last time I heard Elon say anything about falcon wing doors (and it was recent) he was pretty negative about them.

I think that you may have missed the fact that Musk has asserted they are moving up the time-table. Thus, instead of aiming for between 100k to 200K cars in 2018, they are aiming for 500K. So no, the 100K Musk is talking about in 2017 is not a greater run rate than they intend for 2018.

In all fairness, I think we know quite enough to know that Elon Musk is not a scammer. Respectfully, I would argue that if you think that, you haven't very thoughtfully evaluated EM's history. First, although EM is absolutely given to hyperbole on occasion, his outlandish claims often wind up...

Stretch goals work very well with A players. They work poorly with B and C players. That said, it's not my place or intent to argue that stretch goals are awesome. I noted that they create a very painful working environment. The question you should then ask is, does Elon Musk care if working...

Hope springs eternal...

I don't agree. I think that some of those factors do apply, and I agree that there is some chance that they will execute on time. However, I put it at a level somewhere under 50%. I think that Musk simply operates under a different set of assumptions than most people do. When people hear a...

I can virtually guarantee you that no future Tesla that is in the price range of a Model 3 will ever come with Falcon Wing doors.

I think this exemplifies how brutal the race for autonomy is going to get. Everyone is going to go at this with abandon, because they all sense that a massive change is coming in how we use cars. Ford is trying to become a mobility company. GM wants to build autonomous Taxis. Startups like...

I appreciate your viewpoint, but I don't think it reflects the true state of affairs. The value of Tesla's stock is at least somewhat decoupled from the company's operations and from whether or not it can raise capital. This is true of many companies. Amazon (AMZN), as an example, either...

Thus proving that there is no pleasing some people. ;-) In all seriousness, you don't think it looks fast? What looks fast to you?