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  1. bkp_duke

    Should I upgrade to 6 Powerwalls?

    Exporting 52 cycles per year is very easy, and in 6 years I've never had anyone check (I'm now past the 5 year point, so they can't come after the funds). I'm also in VPP, and I have not ready any exclusions for VPP. In fact, VPP would help you meet your export requirements.
  2. bkp_duke

    California Utilities Plan All Out War On Solar, Please Read And Help

    Living in SDG&E territory, I would love to have those rates. We're about 10-15c/kWh higher here. Except on the EV overnight rate.
  3. bkp_duke

    Tesla Unionization

    LoL . . . that's like a (does the exchange math) . . . $900 fine. $850 EUR.
  4. bkp_duke

    Waymo

    What a load of horseshit - I'm a Physician, and no one in any developed world healthcare system uses leaches anymore. Labs still study them, occasionally, but they are NOT APPROVED by ANY governing body for medical use in the US. What you quoted was a research article, of basically...
  5. bkp_duke

    California Utilities Plan All Out War On Solar, Please Read And Help

    Excerpt from this, which was news to me, but now makes things a little bit clearer: "As I’ve written previously, California’s politically powerful labor unions have long fought to disadvantage rooftop solar companies, most of which are nonunion. As the Golden State targets 100% clean energy...
  6. bkp_duke

    Range Loss Over Time, What Can Be Expected, Efficiency, How to Maintain Battery Health

    Interesting. Well the older of the 2 cars I had was in the VIN 4000 range, and I have to tell you that car truly felt like I was driving a prototype car. Great at the time, but I would not tolerate it anymore.
  7. bkp_duke

    Range Loss Over Time, What Can Be Expected, Efficiency, How to Maintain Battery Health

    Back in the two salvaged 2013 Model S's that I had and worked on, this was observed behavior on SW 8 through 10. I haven't rooted one since I got rid of those cars. Could the behavior have changed? Yes. But at the time that is what I observed, was that the cars would periodically come out of...
  8. bkp_duke

    Range Loss Over Time, What Can Be Expected, Efficiency, How to Maintain Battery Health

    Sigh. Yes, the BMS does heat the battery while parked, to ensure that the battery temp will no drop below critical and cause damage. Yes, the BMS does heat the battery when drive if needed (through the superbottle or octovalve to redirect heat as needed - and you do point out that is from the...
  9. bkp_duke

    Tesla Unionization

    If the insurance company has a decent actuary, they will start totaling out these cars. That guy's repair costs + rental are already near 50% of the cost of a replacement.
  10. bkp_duke

    Range Loss Over Time, What Can Be Expected, Efficiency, How to Maintain Battery Health

    No, the whole temperature thing makes PERFECT sense. The battery is a 1300lbs block, and as ambient temps drop, that block releases energy to the surroundings. The BMS will always work to keep the battery block within an optimal temp range, and to do that, it uses energy from the batteries...
  11. bkp_duke

    California Utilities Plan All Out War On Solar, Please Read And Help

    Historically, the BEST option is balance. Neither party can shove their agenda down people's throats and have to come to reasonable compromises. California is far from balanced.
  12. bkp_duke

    Cybertruck as mobile powerwall

    I've done this research, this is actually a grey area of the law. But given where things are going, I expect some lawsuits in the future to test this out.
  13. bkp_duke

    Cybertruck as mobile powerwall

    I've been looking at disconnecting from the grid. I have 16kw of solar and 4 x PW2, and have historical data from that for 4 years now. I'm 98% self-reliant. That 2%, that's tough. My initial plan had been to install a NG generator to supplement the solar+PW system in those winter instances...
  14. bkp_duke

    California Utilities Plan All Out War On Solar, Please Read And Help

    Corporations by definition are greedy, that's not unexpected. What is unexpected is that Gov isn't doing it's job - which in this situation isn't so much regulation, as to foster competition. I guarantee you that if the market were opened up to other companies on a level playing field - that...
  15. bkp_duke

    Cybertruck as mobile powerwall

    If you have an existing powerwall setup, it will be hook it up and works scenario. All the required logic is already in the PW gateway. Just need the proper wall charger.
  16. bkp_duke

    Tesla Unionization

    Apparently someone is, he got banned.
  17. bkp_duke

    Do you have enough solar to go off grid in winter?

    I think you are missing my point. CT is most likely the FIRST of many Tesla products to have this functionality. And I'm not saying it should REPLACE Powerwalls. I think it is a kick-ass supplement to them. I have a Model 3 and Y in my garage, and 4 powerwalls. I would love to be able, in a...
  18. bkp_duke

    Tesla Unionization

    So, if you know what those things are (raises hand with a degree in chemistry), that's all pretty minor infractions. Put up a few signs as required, make sure the guy driving the truck on property (notice it wasn't on the roads) has the proper paperwork, etc. "Nitpicking" comes to mind to...
  19. bkp_duke

    Do you have enough solar to go off grid in winter?

    I was thinking of this just last night, and there is a GAME changer which most of us have not yet considered. Cybertruck. I has full V2G, a 120+ kWh battery back, and interfaces with the proper V3 wall charger to powerwalls to allow it to work with the Tesla Gateway to dump power into your...
  20. bkp_duke

    Tesla Unionization

    The one-post wonder has spoken! And yet . . . Tesla keeps selling more and more cars, quarter after quarter, year after year. Who's living in an alternate reality?
  21. bkp_duke

    Tesla Unionization

    OK, so clearly you have no plans to make "arguments within reason". You just hate Musk and see a reason to stomp your feet and yell like a toddler. Fine, that's on you, not the rest of us. 1B USD for a union in Sweden, that's MASSIVE. Heck, that's huge for a union anywhere. Oh, and I have...
  22. bkp_duke

    Tesla Unionization

    Honestly, if I were in a union and heard leadership they had about 1B USD in the bank, I would be pissed off. To me, that's just too much of a "reserve fund". IF Metall sounds more like a business . . . one who's primary "product" is extortion.
  23. bkp_duke

    Tesla Unionization

    This is a game of chicken, how does it end? I would not be surprised at all if Elon has given orders of "no unions, ever". Would Telsa pull out of Sweden to keep from setting a precedent? I could see that happening. It's a lose lose scenario, but possible.
  24. bkp_duke

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    At this stage, that's more of a pipe dream. The main point of the UKR crossings of the river is to fix Russian positions in that area and prevent them from being drawn down by any significant amount and reinforcing the main thrust further east. Small moves like this prevent the Russians from...
  25. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So, basically, Elon knows the "temperature" of the auto market better than most in this thread fretting over things. Everything in that twitter thread, from various brands, is saying "super slow sales right now".
  26. bkp_duke

    So… Highland is out…

    Tesla has reversed course before (Yoke). Enough people complain, they can bring stalks.
  27. bkp_duke

    So… Highland is out…

    OMG, I would so love a Plaid 3.
  28. bkp_duke

    So… Highland is out…

    Because you are not accounting for 2 things: 1) volume a year ago was 40% lower than it is now (smaller contributor) 2) Tesla had not "smoothed the wave" out, there were a lot of cars on boats at the beginning of any Q, but very few at the end of a Q (vastly larger contributor) The math checks out.
  29. bkp_duke

    So… Highland is out…

    "double" number of days of inventory is still 16, with an estimated 12 of those days being on ships around the world to various destinations. Even by Tesla standards, the 8 days of inventory 1 year ago was abnormally low. 16 days of inventory is near their historical average, and 1/3 to 1/4...
  30. bkp_duke

    So… Highland is out…

    I have personally had 2 x Model S's apart. There is still a F-ton of wiring in these cars. I'm honestly surprised they haven't pushed to the 48V architecture yet, as that would reduce wiring many fold in the cars (both length and mass), by moving everything to an auto Ethernet setup, where you...
  31. bkp_duke

    Supercharger - Norwalk, CA (LIVE 18 Apr 2024, 16 V3 stalls)

    I would say put your hands on the wheel and pay attention, but that looks like typical LA traffic (i.e. standstill).
  32. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yeah, he can't get it through his thick skull that a 25k car would have demand of 4-6 mil/yr. There are not currently remotely enough battery cells in the world to meet that. So if Tesla released it, they would just have another Cybertruck situation again . . . millions of orders with an...
  33. bkp_duke

    So… Highland is out…

    Would LOVE to see that. But wasn't it promised in the S/X about 2 years back and still not implemented?
  34. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    One word - batteries. Battery supply chain is not remotely scaled enough for the 25k car. No point in pushing it forward when you can't build it. Putting the pieces in place to hit that battery supply is going to take a few more years.
  35. bkp_duke

    Off topic galore

    After, they were studies conducted during and after the pandemic, unlike the studies quoted by someone else. And this is a US phenomenon, as I previously pointed out - a culture issue. I run a company with teams in half a dozen countries. We monitor productivity with various tools (login...
  36. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There are rumblings about negotiation "issues" with local Mexican gov for GF Mexico. Specifically, Tesla wants the gov to cover local infrastructure upgrades that supply to the factory (roads, power, sewer, etc.) and the local officials want Tesla to cover that. Part of the stall may be...
  37. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Because building a new line for the Y would take 12 months. The equipment (robots, etc.) doesn't grow on trees and has to be ordered well in advance. The transition work for Highland in Fremont has already started, about 2 months ago (at least per the permits we have seen leaked online in...
  38. bkp_duke

    FSD discussion

    Not much.
  39. bkp_duke

    Off topic galore

    My studies, linked previously, say the opposite, and there are more of them. As is typical with scientific data, you must look at it in the aggregate, not just cherry pick one or two points that fit your pre-conceived ideas.
  40. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm curious about this as well, mainly for selfish reasons. I've loaded up a few couches and am ready to buy a few hundred shares now. Timing seems pretty good for a long-term investor.
  41. bkp_duke

    So… Highland is out…

    It's not just the stalks, it's the wiring for them. That's actually a very costly part. Modern cars have MILES of copper wire in them. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with the stalk standpoint, just saying the stalks themselves are only part of the cost savings. Wiring is the other part...
  42. bkp_duke

    Off topic galore

    DATA is my reason. The DATA bears out the remote workers just aren't as productive as on-site. PERIOD.
  43. bkp_duke

    Off topic galore

    I would agree if most people could be trusted, but they can't. It's the sad truth, and it's why productivity tanks for remote workers compared to on-site workers. Plus, there is a clear improvement in collaborative effect when your staff are all together vs. remote. This isn't conjecture or a...
  44. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    LoLing at "positive take" and Kugerrand. Juxtaposition.
  45. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I bought one in the past year, Fremont. F+F left a lot to be desired on it, tbh. And one of the major car magazines just did a review of the S Plaid with Track Pack. Newly delivered car, and they pointed out some pretty glaring F+F problems. This is a Fremont problem. The other locations...
  46. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla's X/twitter account said delivery event Nov 30 at Giga Austin. So, that would mean "already started" or "soon".
  47. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The issue is no one has ever mass-produced anything like that. There is no one that can build that assembly line with experience. It has to be "felt" out through a large degree of trial and error. At the ultimate end-point of mass production, yes it will be cheaper per unit to produce. But...
  48. bkp_duke

    Off topic galore

    Unless you are doing AI work, very VERY few workloads today cannot be done on something with the CPU equivalent of a chromebook. It doesn't take much to run a spreadsheet, word processor, quickbooks, etc. The only exception, which "smart" companies have discovered - BIG computer screens. Give...
  49. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That's not the entire picture, interest rates. The 1990s were a period of relatively low national debt. We are currently spending more money to finance the US debt than the entire Defense Dept budget. That's a massive resource drain from the single largest spender in the world (US Gov). It's...