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The real driver is battery costs / real capacity. With a very major impact from the rest of the BEV driveline system ancillary costs/capacities. Driveline VFD+regen, fast charging DC, home charging, EV sw capacities. All 4 above are critical in terms of costs, power/capacity/efficiency...

If the worm capital article is somewhat real .. and tsla has == 100$/Wh cells (cost) in production by 12/2018.. tsla wins. Tsla wins everything. Globally. Because cell costs/density -- industrial reliability/longevity -- is everything. Tsla might be at 24 GWh/yr on the 2170 cells for Model 3...

Nonsense ! YOU have no idea what tsla (sw) can do with current hw on AP2 cars ... Neither do I, but they did highway stuff with 40x less processor power.

Many good comments ... Current M-S battery == 500 kg/100 kWh on 260 Wh/kg cells (investor presentation). Next-gen 2170 == 380 Wh/kg; => 1.45 more energy dense. 500 kg => 145 kWh. 2500 kg == current driveline mass of a semi, with fuel, radiators, axels, engine, transmission etc. => 725 kWh...