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  1. S

    Model X Crash on US-101 (Mountain View, CA)

    There will always be confusing marks, or partly even unmarked sections. In such cases, the driver must be alerted immideately. This the current system doesn't seem to do. As the system is additionally unable to detect stationary obstacles, it must, in case the driver doesn't immideately react...
  2. S

    Model X Crash on US-101 (Mountain View, CA)

    The AP never warned.
  3. S

    Model X Crash on US-101 (Mountain View, CA)

    This seems how it happened. The AP drove it into the barrier.
  4. S

    Model X Crash on US-101 (Mountain View, CA)

    How can Tesla advertise like this: Automatic Emergency Braking Designed to detect objects that the car may impact and applies the brakes accordingly Front Collision Warning Helps warn of impending collisions with slower moving or stationary cars In my opinion this is clearly misleading, at...
  5. S

    Model X Crash on US-101 (Mountain View, CA)

    Thanks for the link, didn't know that document. However, they have reached this under laboratory conditions so this worth nothing under real world circumstances. And again, this is an easy job compared to vision. And much more difficult is understanding as they also wrote. So I think my thesis...
  6. S

    Model X Crash on US-101 (Mountain View, CA)

    This is just a dream and probably impossible. Still today even speech recognition is far below that what a human can do. And this should be much easier to solve via neural nets. And here we are talking about safety relevant functions. Such only be implemented if the input sensors are robust...
  7. S

    Model X Crash on US-101 (Mountain View, CA)

    Thank you for the link. However, if this is the case, who really thinks FSD can be reached with this? Seems absolutely impossible for me if they still cannot detect stationary objects. I also would really like to know about a real statistic research, not compared to average accidents, but...
  8. S

    Model X Crash on US-101 (Mountain View, CA)

    How is it possible that the Tesla AEB doesn't see such an object? Is it such a crappy system?
  9. S

    Autopilot team changes

    Yes, nothing against you. Of course this wasn't foreseeable. However, I already considered it as very unlikely that the director of such a program would leave at such a critical phase (first implementation of HW2) without anything happened. I more guessed that his project results did not satisfy...
  10. S

    Autopilot team changes

    Really good terms... Tesla is suing its ex-Autopilot director for allegedly poaching employees and stealing confidential information
  11. S

    EAP HW2 - my experience thus far... [DJ Harry]

    In my opinion the expectations are way too high. It is just not possible to gather sufficient safety from so many sensors. Typically such high safety targets can only be reached by extremely robust sensors, and typically you never should use more than 3 of them (otherwise impossible to certify...
  12. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    The cost advantage of China is far more than only cheap labor: lower energy costs lower environment protection standard lower safety standard for the machines and people in the workshops
  13. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    In my opinion Elon did and still does do a big mistake regarding the autopilot and the autonomous driving future: he raises expectations which then cannot be fulfilled. On the mid-term this will lead to customers with wrong expectations which always is a bad thing.
  14. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    How come that 85 percent of TSLA shareholders voted for the merger? Did Elon vote himself?
  15. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    I agree to your thesis. But this all is already priced in. The current stock price can only be justified if the main targets become reality. I also don't see much risks during the next 2 years (this does not mean that the stock price will go up further ) . However after this time frame I see...
  16. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    I don't want to make to much of this, however it is not negligible like some people seem to think. When I read your answer I am not sure if you understood that the cars which have been discounted have been discounted far more than 2 %. Let's assume that 10 % of the total sold model S cars have...
  17. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    2 % in average over all cars. This is roughly equivalent to 0,02 75.000 $/car*15.800 cars = 23,7 million dollar (!) this is roughly equal to the net GAAP earnings Tesla did achieve this quarter.
  18. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    For me the most plausible theorie is that big institutional investors see the current situation (over 200 sp) as the best chance for a very long time to realize earnings. For them it is clear that they will not see a substantial dividend during mid-term future. Additionally the next quarters...
  19. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Your summary is wrong. You cannot conclude that the AP is better than a human. The 222M without accident have been the AP together with a human. How many times did the human interact and finally has avoided an accident? Probably thousands of times! Additionally, you have to consider that the...
  20. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    For sure TSLA has not demonstrated this. I fully agree with myusername that there is a lack of scientific results. The current assistance system doesn't save lifes in average and is clearly below the average driver regarding the capabilities. The comparison EM always likes to make is incorrect...
  21. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    While I cannot say a lot about the US Situation, I am afraid that TSLA ignores the European Situation and the established thinking about safety. We here in Europe have very clear standards regarding safety (EN 13849, EN 62061, btw according to what I know there is no such equivalent in the US)...
  22. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    I assume there are some very good informed longs which want to get rid of their shares before the upcoming events.
  23. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    EM compares the deadly accidents per mile for unassisted driving with the death per accumulated miles driven by the TSLA assistance system. Of course he knows that the conclusion he makes is inaccurate and probably wrong: how many times the human avoided an accident and did override the system...
  24. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    You can be sure that also other companies are able to deliver these as sub-suppliers. The common sense tells that TSLA will not be the only one capable of doing this, even in this vast amount. Even if other car companies should need to build own factories, which I don't believe will be...
  25. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    The short sellers cannot push down the market continuously. TSLA is underperforming since months. Within the last 6 months, there have been three fundamental changes which the market now also realizes: Competitors will follow TSLA and produce high volume EV cars, this will have direct influence...
  26. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    You don't want to say that such a small market participant (1.000 puts is nothing compared to the TSLA Volume each day) can take any influence on the stocks base price.
  27. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    This is something I also had to learn and this is something why I really lose my trust in TSLA (from an economic point of view). Finally TSLA will have to earn money after you deduct all the costs (incl. the growth costs). Until now TSLA needs external money not only for the growth, also for...
  28. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    I fully agree to this. There are only two possibilities why any investor buys shares. Either he believes the price of the stock is going to raise or he wants to receive a good dividend. The latter will not happen within the foreseeable future. The first also is very unlikely. If you have a look...