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  1. I

    Does Tesla have a big math problem?

    I think it comes down to depth of deep learning and process of object detection and classification. Humans go outside in and could care less about many of the visual features of objects these deep learning systems spend time on. Humans can see better but need far less data beyond silhouettes...
  2. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    While I understand the math I doubt your assumption is correct for two reasons. One is that if Tesla had more sim miles and did that properly their vehicles would perform far better by now. Second is Musk would realize allowing folks to EVER take their hands off the wheel until L4 is extremely...
  3. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    Here is a study using Tesla to show human's cannot utilize L2 properly. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321058854_Is_partially_automated_driving_a_bad_idea_Observations_from_an_on-road_study "With this in mind the authors of this paper argue that a shift in attitude is required to...
  4. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    If Tesla really thought L3 should be skipped they would off no ability or modes to allow stearing control to be ceded. They do neither. That latest highway utilizes it as a feature. One trillion is from Toyota. If you extrapolate Rands data to a 10x better than a human and account for it not...
  5. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    Trent - The 40% number is unsubstantiated. Jalopnik submitted a FOIA for the data. NHTSA and Tesla refused to supply it.And AAA raised their rates due to increased accidents and cost. I agree that 40% will be true someday. I don't think Tesla is actually achieving that now. - Elon said they...
  6. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    My issue is not with the need for this tech. I support it and Elon's desire to attain it. The issue is the method used to achieve it needs to be effective and not risk lives needlessly. Tesla's approach does not meet that bar. Waz said this and so has John Krafcik recently. I am now part of...
  7. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    I know how it works and why it does what it does. Data collected while the driver maintains steering control is a must. The issue is ceding control of steering to the vehicle. I am now part of the SAE V&V Task Force. They would not have extended that invitation for no reason. Also please read...
  8. I

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Responding without discussing the low level details or specific merits of pints people make, like playing shoot the messenger or guessing, or throwing out hyperbole is usually a clear demonstration you have no valid push back. I provided the links to an extremely detailed article with links to...
  9. I

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Not and investor or short seller. Do just a little DD instead of responding without doing none.
  10. I

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Wasn't my point. I worked at Lockheed and managed hundreds in an organization with tens of thousands in a company with hundreds of thousands. The only time you let that many folks go at the end of the year especially when things are behind is when there is a RIF. You do not jam your HR group...
  11. I

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    The link was meant to avoid repasting. As for "rathole" those who cannot make objective points to disprove something usually resort to lashing out. Elon did it today several times in the call. Why not rise above that. take the issue seriously, do your homework and respond accordingly?
  12. I

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    It should not be done there either. Most of this should be in aerospace level simulation. Read about Waymo's recent sea change in their Safety Report. And Krafcik publicly pushing back on Tesla. The reason he is doing that is that he now realizes how wrong they were. And that those who...
  13. I

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    The point is it's not practical.Show me a similar situation where that occurs?
  14. I

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    The issue is not that they don't use simulation. It is the depth and breadth. It should replace most public shadow driving. Handover and public shadow driving (letting go of the wheel) cannot not be made safe over the long term or on most high speed, complex and dangerous situations. it has been...
  15. I

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    There are no environmental test facilitates that can test these roof tiles? And accelerate the testing then use metrics to reliably project 30 years?
  16. I

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    I actually think Tesla will literally never get to L4. They use the wrong engineering approach. As most AV makers do. Clear proof of this is Waymo's paradigm shift recently. I realize how this sounds. I will provide a bit of my resume and links to an article I wrote that explains it in detail...
  17. I

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    A strobe light to see robots work? On something where they are that big? That's nuts. Show me that at any other car makers, aircraft maker etc.
  18. I

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Clearly he is engaged in a million things and each is tough to do. So it's easy for us to be armchair quarterbacks. I have led some very large and complex programs but nothing like this. As such I have sympathy. My issue with Elon is how he handles himself. He exaggerates if not flat out lies...
  19. I

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Quote "Longer you leave a problem worker in place, the more damage you're doing to the team and productivity. I'm fully in agreement with Tesla / Musk on this. I've worked in middle management for years. Fire poor performers and move on. You'll have a stronger team for it." Is your point that...
  20. I

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Just in case Elon is watching Open Letter to Elon Musk - Please consider changing your approach in creating autonomous vehicles https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/open-letter-elon-musk-michael-dekort/ (Admittedly the approach is a strong one. Given your personality and how far things have gotten...
  21. I

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Elon Musk asked the doubters to consider who thought Tesla would sell 100X more cars in the 5th year. He said he bets no one. That isn’t the point. The issue is Elon’s own promises and projections. When he doesn’t make them, many missed by a lot, he refuses to take ownership. Gets testy and...
  22. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    First - there is a bit of a terminology issue with just Tesla. Their "shadow mode" at least in their literature is not shadow driving. However. . . I understand what the literature says. It is not what people do nor what is actually expected. Tesla uses that language for legal CYA while...
  23. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    The similarity is allowing the vehicle to steer with your hands off for any amount of time. It is not only unsafe and cannot be made safe but using that practice for AI, engineering and test on public roads will never result in L4. You cannot drive the one trillion miles needed. This is why...
  24. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    My new article Jeopardy of Negligence Growing for Autonomous Vehicle Industry https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/jeopardy-negligence-growing-autonomous-vehicle-industry-dekort/
  25. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    Tesla running behind Musk’s driverless promises Tesla running behind Musk’s driverless promises How much writing on the wall do you need? We now need another wall. The technology can be successful. But you need to do it another way. I have not delved into the sensor area but given Tesla's...
  26. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    You are incorrect about public shadow driving and handover not being the same from the standpoint of situational awareness. Which is the point. (I assume you did not read any of the references I suggested?). Most studies and real world data show that regaining control and effecting the right...
  27. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    No it is not hyperbole. How do you think the public shadow driving path gets from here to L4? In order to learn complex and dangerous scenarios, which there are thousands of, they have to be driven thousands of times to train and verify the AI. Those scenarios have to be run in very bad...
  28. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    No one wanted to respond to my last post and the study or data on Waymo's new path? Now we have Steve Wozniak - Tesla’s Autopilot is under attack by Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, billionaire shorter, and media From Woz - “Tesla has in people’s mind that they have cars that will just drive...
  29. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    Here is a report I actually just became aware of that combines many other reports on the dangers of handover or public shadow driving. Handover issues in autonomous driving: A literature review - VENTURER Combine that with Rand and Toyota stating it would take one trillion miles (not Elon's 6B)...
  30. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    No. And the reasons is because that is not all that it is limited to. In spite of the legalize Tesla wants and allows for folks to let go of the wheel. It wants to be protected legally and shift all the risk to their overly trusting customers so they will sacrifice themselves and their families...
  31. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    I know exactly what it will take. See other than LiDAR there is little going on here that aerospace has done. And done 10 it 20 years ago. Folks in Commercial IT think everything they do is new. Fact is most of it is not. And the reason why aerospace and DoD didn't focus on LiDAR before is...
  32. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    I get the legalize. Which is how Tesla believes they get legal protection while wanting and nudging their drivers to let go of the wheel. Are there no videos where Elon let's go of the wheel? Are there no modes where you can or are supposed to be able to let go of the wheel? Please if Tesla...
  33. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    Regarding shadow driving. This is a terminology issue regarding Tesla that I have to correct here and there.since Tesla has a shadow mode. Public shadow driving or safety driving is when the vehicle has control, especially of steering, and the driver monitors it. That mode will never lead to...
  34. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    I never suggested Tesla AP has no value or that progress isn't being made. As for giving anything up all that i am suggesting is that you should never let it steer. You are a believer whose ego is tied to your beliefs. As such you look for confirmation bias and refuse to dig deep into a...
  35. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    I have learned that folks who shoot messengers and refuse to discuss the objective merits of an argument do not actually have one. You would serve Elon and Tesla much better demonstrating exactly where I and now Waymo are incorrect. Be a fan - but be an objective and helpful one.
  36. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    There is ZERO profit motive. Please tell me exactly what you think that would be? Sometimes people do the right things for the right reasons https://www.thenation.com/article/will-botched-coast-guard-contract-come-back-bite-james-comey\ IEEE Xplore Full-Text PDF: Tesla is not on the bleeding...
  37. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    What i want to accomplish is all AV makers are successful. That includes Tesla. Tesla nor anyone else who uses public shadow driving vs aerospace level simulation as the primary AI, engineering and test process will ever reach L4 and will cause thousands of needless casualties along the way...
  38. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    Waymo's new Safety Report confirms all of my points. Ignoring this would be a significant mistake. (I believe Toyota is on the same path). https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/waymo-safety-report-confirms-what-i-have-been-saying-michael-dekort/
  39. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    Waymo's new Safety Report confirms all of my points. Ignoring this would be a significant mistake. (I believe Toyota is on the same path). https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/waymo-safety-report-confirms-what-i-have-been-saying-michael-dekort/
  40. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    The key here being when you said this - "The simulators are, in my limited experience,. . .". You simply do not understand aerospace level simulator AND simulation tech. Waymo's new Safety Report confirms all of my points. Bury your heads in the sand at your peril...
  41. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    I am using various locations to post. The secondary purpose is to educate/alert/warn owners, their families and the public.
  42. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    What testing services? Sometimes people do the right things for the right reasons. IEEE Xplore Full-Text PDF: IEEE Xplore Full-Text PDF:
  43. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    Let me add this. I am Mr. Musk's best friend. And yours if actually getting to autonomy and saving lives matters vs your ego and protecting your beliefs when they are proven wrong. The status quo means ZERO L4, ZERO lives saved by L4 and thousands of lives wasted in trying to get there. My...
  44. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    You are incorrect. The NTSB said Tesla's LACK OF TECH contributed to Brown's death because it did not have the "appropriate" capabilities in that location.
  45. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    Most of you are clearly did not read the articles I referred to. You are also avoiding the reasons I gave for why this process can never work. And you are responding with defenses which are not in disagreement. The end goal is autonomy as soon as possible so lives are saved. On that we agree...
  46. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    I never said "mean" I said deplorable. I want real world data just not from folks not in control in the real world. (Except limited situations). Shadow driving should be done in the simulation. You did not address my points that make the process impossible to complete. Will the world allow...
  47. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    I have no issue with gathering data. Data is needed from many sources including drivers. But NOT public shadow drivers. (Except in limited cases where aerospace level simulation and test tracks will not work. Or validating the sim. In those cases the situation needs to be very targeted and not...
  48. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    The issue is PUBLIC shadow driving. Not shadow driving You are correct. The Joshua Brown tragedy should have never happened as that car should have never been on a road or that road. Which the NTSB clearly agrees with. The point stands however as most people understand the point being made...
  49. I

    Open Letter to Elon Musk

    Please consider changing your approach in creating autonomous vehicles. People’s lives, possibly the industry, your company and your legacy depend on it. Elon When you submitted your SpaceX code to NASA for review I believe they failed it for not being properly tested and for having exception...
  50. I

    Autopilot 2.0 is dangerous

    Disengagements mean almost nothing without scenario data. 1000 disengagements for the same reason is different than 100 disengagements 10 times each.