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If shareholders want a visionary entrepreneur, I think they'll just have to accept that some behaviour just won't appeal to people who are uptight. "Steve Jobs made no secret of the fact he experimented with LSD while in college. The late Apple cofounder said taking the psychedelic drug was a...

On the weekly chart we've spiked below the lower Bollinger Band. When this happens (Oct 2017, March 2018), we generally trade back up to the upper Bollinger Band, currently at $363 (and rising modestly). If we get a big green candle next week, that would raise confidence that this will happen.

Wasn't the CAO hired to oversee the privatisation, having done so at Seagate? Why stay on if Tesla remains public?

Anyone's guess short-term. That said, I was expecting the backlash from the "staying private" announcement which drew criticism of Elon's handling of the whole thing to push the share price below $300. Instead we had a weak open and a rally during most of yesterday. Yesterday's low ($303.68) was...

My bad. I should have checked the source of the link. Just trying to help.

"Notifying a short position Notification must be made of any position attaining 0.2% of the issued share capital, and of every subsequent 0.1% above this threshold. Notifications from 0,5% and each 0.1% above are made public via the register short selling" Notification of net short positions

Tesla has issued a lot of convertible debt ($11.5B I think), so some (a lot?) of the short interest could be a convertible arbitrage play as opposed to unhedged shorts*. * Edited from "naked shorts" - thanks Fact Checking

Doing a Google search for the terms "amazon becomes cash flow positive" yields interesting results. Most of them date from 2014/15, fully 13 years after Amazon first started generating free cash flow. Same mainstream media scepticism, different company. Here's page 1: 3 Reasons Why Amazon's...

Amazon turned cash flow positive in 2001. That marked a seminal moment for the stock as it coincided with an important low that never got re-tested, either during the ongoing Nasdaq crash, or during the 2008 crash.

I wonder what he's dying to tweet? :)

Although the stock price is much higher than it was in the early days, I think the risk/reward has never been better. I've rarely seem such risk/reward asymmetry in any asset, let alone a stock. The financial media narrative continues to be overwhelmingly negative at the very moment when it will...

Elazar Advisors: "Gross Margins Jumping If you backed into the numbers for Q2 you saw S&X gross margins jumped to 37% or so, up 1100 basis points from Q1. Bears made up stories why that's bad, right? As Model 3 gross margins go to 15-20% this year and 25-30% next year (all stated by Tesla on...

Try telling your shareholders you're going to have to cut and re-invest all of those juicy dividends if the company is going to compete! More generally, when we see a technology-driven transition in the market, when does the dominant player in the old paradigm become the dominant player in the...

I can clearly remember it blowing out to 20% below the theoretical conversion price, though I wasn't watching it day-to-day, so you're probably right. The important thing though, is that this was after the buyer (ie Tesla) made a public offer and all that was left was a shareholder vote. We...

They make all their research freely available and their analysts always respond to emails. I've found their I can't recommend them highly enough. From their latest article. The whole thing is worth reading: "In addition, once Tesla launches the Tesla Network, its autonomous ride-hailing...

The reason for the high valuation is they see automation happening sooner than most and that it will be a huge market ($2T in 2030). I've been following them for the last 3 years. They were also much more bullish on EV sales than most analysts (and remain so - expecting 17 million unit sales by...

That's a very interesting interview. Thanks for posting. One snippet that caught me by surprise is that she thinks if Tesla de-lists, it will have to provide private equity with a lot more detailed financial information (monthly financials) that could make raising capital more problematic...

Here's a clip from Tasha Keeney, the Ark analyst who covers Tesla. She says ARK believes TSLA is worth $2000 today, and goes on to say autonomous driving will happen sooner than most think: Market On Close: 08/20/2018 | TD Ameritrade Network

Could well be. Financial assets usually do the opposite of what I think they'll do over the short-term, none more so than TSLA. Price is down 8 days running (if we ignore Monday which was more or less flat) and the slope of the decline has begun to accelerate. Near vertical price action is...

Sounds reasonable. I've been thinking more about the reasons people are aggressively selling rather than timidly buying. How are the institutional managers going to look if they are selling now, after the CEO states he wants to take the company private and if/when the de-listing happens at $420...

Ark Invest's latest: Tesla’s Autonomous Opportunity is Severely Underappreciated

You've probably never hear of them, but back in 2016, along with more than a hundred retail investors, I bought equity in an SPV, which in turn bought an equity stake in MaidSafe via the Bktothefuture platform. So I think it's definitely possible, though if I recall, for this kind of Special...

He claims to be an expert at evaluating whether a company's shares are under/overvalued, not at assessing the probability of whether it gets bought out or taken private. So what would be his rationale for holding a short position right now?

That also caught my eye. It's either the threat of a hostile takeover, or them telling him that this will be their final offer. The rest of the quote is also significant: "he strongly expressed his support for funding a going private transaction for Tesla at this time." leaves very little room...

Great point. There's also a high probability (and we can argue how high) that Tesla gets taken private at $420. So shorts are now playing a dangerous game. For them it used to be about bankruptcy or valuation, now it is about something very different: how certain is it that Tesla goes private at...

I'm less concerned. I'd be very surprised if Elon wrote today's blog post publicly naming the Saudi's without asking them first. If they gave him their approval, then this suggests to me they are serious, otherwise everyone (including the Sovereign Investment Fund) is going to look very foolish...

There's a precedent here - the SCTY buyout. SCTY traded at a substantial discount to the implied buyout ratio (at one point 20% below if memory serves) before the gap eventually closed as we neared the shareholder vote. I expect a similar degree of scepticism about this deal, but that the deal...

Did you read the blogpost? Elon Musk mentions that talks took place on several different occasions. I'm stunned that you don't think their intent is serious and that if shareholders approve a deal gets done.

It certainly looks like it! That said, the market always seems to love screwing with investors' heads, so I wouldn't be surprised if we pull back into the range and get people thinking "false breakout" only to rally again from there. Seems that will depend on the market as a whole and news on M3...

The monthly chart is beginning the month outside the upper BB - an indication of strong demand. The Bands are widening to give the stock 'room' to run up. There's also more space between the blue MACD line and the red signal line, which gives more conviction to the cross: The weekly has left...

Agreed. Though most of the fiat, debt-based currencies are created by banks (in the form of mortgages) rather than governments. Still, the effect is the same - it debases your buying power. To counter this, I buy bitcoin, which I think is the best equity-based currency. If TCP/IP allowed for P2P...

I've often noticed that when stocks (or other tradable assets) go on bull runs, they will usually trade between a rising 5-period moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. Sometimes we see a dip to the 10-period moving average. We see this quite clearly over the 3 bull runs of 2013-2015 on...

I think you're right that, having spent so long convincing themselves that "TSLA is a car company in a bubble" that admitting they are wrong is going to be painful and potentially embarrassing. I also have no idea whether someone like Chanos uses technical analysis. That said, if we break out of...

I think distributed solar has a big future and that Tesla made the right decision moving into the solar roof space. The declining costs of PV arrays relative to the soft costs of installation just make it a brutal business, but everyone needs a roof, so why not make it a solar roof? Besides...

We are touching on the daily and the monthly. I think we walk up the band(s). It looks more obvious on the daily, because the upper band is already rising, but we are almost at the end of the month, so if buying interest remains firm, it should force the monthly bands wider and we will have a...

Elon Musk often talks about the 'S' curve of BEV adoption. Ark-invest estimates we'll hit the knee of the curve, just before the slope gets steeper, in 2022. The key data point they use is the date when a "200-mile range EV with the same amenities as today’s best-selling Toyota Camry will sell...

True, although it's actually a 20-period moving average, rather than a '20 day simple moving average'. It's also the term John Bollinger uses and he invented the tool! "Bollinger Bands® consist of a center line and two price channels (bands) above and below it"

Here's the 15-minute and monthly charts. I'm not particularly interested in short-term moves, but I do think charts are fractal, so express the same properties over multiple time frames. In both cases we have a longish sideways period of consolidation, Williams%R goes pink/overbought, MACD...

If the same observation is applied to the weekly chart, it would gives us a price target of $291 and an all-time-high! But that's perhaps getting ahead of things :rolleyes:

Here's the 4-hour chart. It would be nice if we could bust through (and close above) the 20-period black BB centre line. In my experience price tends to get drawn to either the Upper/Lower Bollinger Band, or the centre line, so I'd look for it to move up and touch the Upper Band at $265.16 and...

Cathy Wood is always worth reading: "The new bricks in the wall of worry are the valuation of the US equity market and the political risks to health care and tax reform. To some extent these risks are related. If Congress passes the first phase of health care reform, then the odds of a...

Ark-invest's latest article on trends in EV sales: EV Sales (Electric Vehicle Sales) Forecasts Are Taking Off

Perhaps, though I'm not sure I follow. I think the market 'trains' traders to act in a certain way (buy the dips, play the range etc) because that's what's been working recently. Playing the range, has been what's been working for traders since mid 2015. Easy money, right? That's why I think it...

Options are always riskier because you have to get price and time right. I think we break out to the upside soonish, but prefer to play that through leverage (1.5X equity) than options. The reason I think we break out, is that price has been in a range ($130 - $280) since mid 2015, and traders...

It's obviously all guesswork, but the question I ask myself is what scenario has the market attached the most probability to? EM now has a reputation for over-promising and delivering behind schedule. When you combine this with the relatively low estimates the investment banks have for M3...

3-hour chart. Lots of white space above the 20-period moving average ($256.58). If we can break through, chances are that we can undo Tuesday's drop.

One other thought: the yearly move between 2013 and 2015 - massive advance, followed by sideways period of digestion and consolidation, and the daily move since the $180 Dec 16 low show a similar pattern that IMO is very bullish. Consolidating the rise, whilst only giving back part of it is very...

So, did the sharp sell-off 2 days ago wrong-foot traders and raise confidence prematurely among the shorts? We will need to close above the high of that day ($264.80) to say with more confidence that it was a bear trap. Here's the daily chart. The main positive for me is that Williams%R reversed...

Interesting. There are definitely a few initiatives under way to make shares true bearer assets and dispense with counterparty risk. Owning the cryptographic private keys to your stock and putting a hash of the certificate on a blockchain will make naked short selling much more difficult.

Yes, great point! No easy answer. I tend to wait until a company gets a sufficiently large lead (though that can always disappear with a new technology and it means I pay more) and when its technology becomes standardized across its industry and if there are network effects. With 90% of the gene...