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Running 12.3.4 for a local trip. Similar to 12.3.3, it misreads numbers on roadside signs as speed limit signs. In this case, in a 45 mph zone it dropped the speed to 20 mph for about a mile until encountering a proper 45 mph sign. The general impression was that it kept under the posted...

Wes Roth favorably reviewing reports on Grok Vision… Seems to be doing well with real world truth which fits with Optimus and FSDS.

This sign is particularly unfortunate. This surface street is 25 mph zone approaching a school zone. School zone is 15 when flashing (obscured by temporary sign in photo). Approaching via FSDS 12.3.3 speed limit bumps up from 25 to 40 about 300’ before the school zone (not honored if...

If latency can be reduced sufficiently (big if), why not use steering instead. Enhance mobility and avoid the need to emergency brake at all. Steer out of the problem beyond the ability of biological reaction time. The best emergency stop is….. well, you know.

Cathy Wood very positive on TSLA on CNBC.

I would posit that acceleration is an introduced problem. The acceleration I am encountering is novel to recent FSD IMO. Where is this coming from? It is not from millions of miles of actual data. This seems emergent or residual from something. It is almost like an artifact from using...

12.3.3 two comments. Pretty sure school zones have yet to be implemented. Seems to have a regression related to again misreading certain road side signs as speed limit signs. FSD would mistakenly interpret smallish signs as speed limit signs a year or more ago and it was corrected. Today...

Mapping data won’t work for school busses which require a full stop when loading or unloading.

Improved visualization! I wonder if it now renders school busses correctly?

We are making progress toward feature complete but not there. Probably could be broken down further to particular areas but the point is progress toward feature complete.

I like 12.3 and recognize it as a significant improvement in many ways. About 10 minutes into my second drive this morning I encountered a stopped full size yellow school bus. Red lights flashing, physical stop sign folded out toward opposing traffic lane (me), barrier bar extended into road...

Can confirm 12.3 is coming into PA tonight. This means a few things I’ve considered will likely be revised. A good thing.

Control group?

Everybody is watching for their particular V12 confirmation. For me and the background I come from which is a very high quality and critical product world, I don't see that end to end NN has a timely method of validation. That validation has to be signed off by QA. At some point after FSD...

It is interesting how varied driving experiences can be. In some parts of the country encountering school busses is a near daily event. I would think all those encounters would have to be in the NN training material for V12 so maybe soon we’ll get some comments. Thanks for your quick response🙂

Have you been able to comment on how V12 handles approaching school buses stopped with their flashing lights on?

Correct, I watched a YT channel with some actual lawyers when this decision first was released and they predicted a multibillion fees/award was coming. The amount is mostly meaningless if Tesla appeals and wins on appeal. If Tesla loses on appeal only then does this decision begin to have...

Seems that way. I look forward to one of the V 12 testers commenting since I would welcome being mistaken.

Number 34 is a chilling. I don’t get how this remains such a difficult problem…flashing lights, signs and moving stuff.

At some point the mechanics of driving safely will need to include a component of human comfort. AI will need to not only view the outside world but also have millions of miles of cabin data to solve the human comfort component. What acts of driving make humans uncomfortable (squirm factor)...

I see the market excited about delivered results right now but part of the market is also looking 6 months or so into the future. Mindful that rates are likely at the top, 6 months from now the mood of the market will be in anticipation of coming rate cuts. This will goose stocks like TSLA...

Been noting the fees I pay selling covered calls on E*Trade which seem standard ish at 0.65 per contract. Some trading platforms don’t seem to have these fees. Any comments appreciated re low cost options trading platforms. Been looking over MooMoo for instance.

That’s promising. Tuesday schools reopen. I will be impressed if V12 begins to handle school zones and particularly approaching boarding school buses in some manner. A stop is required in many/all? states - lights flashing and all. If V12 is trained on real video from surface street...

I had a Jeep Gran Cherokee I could use to trailer trash to the dump although it would overheat a bit. Sold it and trailer in anticipation of CT but CT feature set for driving to the dump bit of overkill. I need ground clearance, tow package, AWD so some model Y Adventure configuration with...

You could be correct. Alternately, consider a factory operating at reduced air pressure. How would variable air pressure impact robotic calibration and at what speed does air pressure materially affect accuracy? Learning about variable air pressure is interesting. How does airborne dust...

I would essentially agree but add that NN training should not rely on GPS. Vision is the key training input. Even before GPS existed, a driver knew which rules likely applied simply by looking at the most common license plates recently observed or by the shape and format of traffic signs...

This is a great question. I “think” their design model would try to avoid this but on some level it might come into play.

Thanks for your comment. I wish you were fully correct but I am not so certain. It could result that a single example in the training set improved many experiences in many cities but similarly the next example might regress half those cities. I don’t understand their training method to be...

I don’t think this computes. It will make it different. Maybe not worse but we don’t know in certainty. When you change the training data by the addition of different (rainy) data, you get a different result. That’s why it is done. Nothing in this process can prevent regression. Over sample...

The point is “moving“ not the particular destination of the moment. There is always a better location, better laws, better politics, greener pastures etc. The best stake in the ground is no stake in the ground. Increasingly what is best for SpaceX wins the day. EM has clearly stated he is...

I don’t see much of a pattern of planting, more of just moving a lot. Next move seems likely to be further south toward Mexico. Being largely self funding these days, Banking would not be as much of an issue. Work force issues with bots going away soon. MeXico is a rising star that would...

I see your point for traditional fixed manufacturing lines and there will be some of that. Outside the box thinking focuses exactly on hands. Imagine tasks reduced to hand functions. AI moves among bots delivering as many hands as required for each task. Complete flexibility by the second...

I am beginning to think there will be a dual path to FSD. V11 will continue to improve in one form or another. V12 morphs into a training/research method. V12 becomes a source of example weights that can be modular black boxes supervised by validated code. YMMV

CT in China labeled as Urban Traveling Wagon rather than “truck”. Interesting.

Agreed, CT proven technology is the key. Lunar rovers may use 4 wheel steering and steer by wire and smaller/lighter 48 v motor tech, AI etc Although I love SS on the CT, I think coiled SS rolls will be lifted to orbit as a material and the knowledge/skills from CT fabrication will be key to...

I think I have unconventional views (spouse confirms) but I view castings as a solution related to higher gravity Earth related products. I think casting technical development is about complete. In further development is the exoskeleton for use off-world. I don't think manufacturing in orbit...

I am mystified how V12 end to end NN will be validated by the Tesla quality system. 300,000 lines of code can be validated but a comma separated file of numeric weights seems inherently impossible to validate. Perhaps it can be functionally validated but it seems if there is even a minor...

Been looking at the 26 June leaps. Seems like they have dropped quite a percent in the last week…

The best wave is no wave- The best guidance is no guidance- The shackles are off. Own your own timeline. Tesla has earned their own future. I like it!

Running a v11 release on v3 hw. Using single pull activation. Encountered ground fog related to warming temperatures over very frozen ground & snow. Traffic was moving well as fog was light and visibility good. Wipers in auto and not wiping. Light mist on glass. FSD just went away with a...

Agreed, seems likely to be X.ai. Might be something like TSLA purchases rights and agrees to share development so that existing tech can be shared. Key staff etc move to X.ai where influence over development is stronger for him. Some open questions…. Probably more clarity coming soon or...

I suspect he has already made his decision. It just has to unfold. He may be shopping for a shell organization to use for a full on AI effort in opposition to OpenAI et al. He is shopping for the best home for the project of his lifetime. We will know soon enough I suspect. I just don’t...

Can’t say I haven’t been poking around a bit. YMMV

You’re sooo very knotty!

I can’t help think of the sheriff in “Blazing Saddles”😂… What shareholder is most damaged…. Bend to my influence or I will prove I have most to lose. Seems it was about this time of year, every few years, when a long teased move happens. Why would he not divest more TSLA shares to more...

One read on the EM statement is that he is moving robotics and AI to another company. This should work for him and he can feel influential as he states. Tesla licenses or releases AI and robotic IP freely to all takers and then Tesla refocuses on transitional sustainability technologies with...

Cyberhammer? Gym equipment? https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/01/36588586/elon-musk-doubles-down-on-cybertruck-popularity-as-tesla-ventures-into-fitness-equipment-with-cyberh?utm_campaign=partner_feed&utm_source=MarketWatch&utm_medium=partner_feed&utm_content=site&mod=mw_quote_news

Never mind…

I wonder how many weeks it will be before the 10 yr bond drops below 4% again?

One possible approach to minimizing employment disruption at Tesla would be as follows. Apply Optimus to new lines of production such as 4680 where the rate of increase is exploding and the line is well defined by the development teams. Optimus can excel at mind numbing consistency for endless...