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my guess is put holders closing their positions causing MMs to buy back their short positions, once the stock price started to rise shorts started to close their positions, adding upwards pressure

YouTube should have order(s) of magnitude more of such data

As someone working in AI since ~10 years, I can say that this is the right point of view: never underestimate exponential growth. Anyone predicting that anything in AI "is at least n years out" is thinking linearly, not geometrically. We as humans simply lack any intuition whatsoever how...

they might have been the long leg of a put spread whose short leg was assigned to the original holder, and the broker subsequently auto-exercised the long leg to prevent the account holder from a margin call / forced liquidation

None, extrinsic = time value

yes. on average, IV is the highest in the first 15minutes of trading and then declines as the trading day progresses, only to spike in the minutes prior to close. My analysis was done using ATM call options, dynamically adjusted for the underlying price each second; closest expiration; timeframe...

I *think* it's the delayed import of transaction data, such as from darkpool trades that do not need to be reported in real-time, but can be reported up to x hours later into the consolidated tape

At InteractiveBrokers with Portfolio Margin, LEAPS do give margin

I couldn't find it in a short Google / ChatGPT session but they look at, among other things, the trading range of the underlying / its volatility. More strikes and incremental strikes can and are being added over time during the lifetime of the expiration. So if TSLA goes to ATH in the next 2...

There's a policy managed by the OCC that regulates what strikes and what expirations are made available when

https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-fourth-quarter-2023

yes you do. Also when writing Call Spreads or anything else where the funds serve as collateral only. (I've been using IBKR since ~6 years)

yes, BMW has been doing this for years

yes, BMW does for example in their factory in Dingolfing

Net deltas should be +delta(calls bought+puts sold) - delta(calls sold+puts bought)

ABS = Asset-backed securities. Sounds more like raising funds for car loans or leases

With the benefit of hindsight bias (I was really concerned about P&D after reading the tweet beforehand), I'd like to think he wants to caution retail traders to not get caught in the euphoria post-P&D. Furthermore, what has me thinking: Elon is usually a stickler for small details and...

or it has to do with the kitchen sink he brought in when he took over Twitter. Maybe it's CF positive?

https://www.optionseducation.org/referencelibrary/faq/leaps-and-expiration-cycles Also good: Options Expiration Calendar

unless Puts need to be unwound that is, then the price should go up. But this week expiration's put-to-call ratio was skewed to the call side.

The more I immerse myself into the market and its mechanisms, as well as TSLA's price action, the more I believe that a lot of the artifacts that people on this forum attribute to manipulation are in fact attributable to TSLA's gigantic options market. It's the options tail wagging the equity dog.

As far as I know, at 3.30pm, Robin Hood starts automatically closing out long options that are ITM and where the associated account does not have the buying power to exercise the option (which we can assume is most RH accounts since the average RH account size is ~$2.5k and TSLA options trade...

Just for hygiene in our thinking (not calling out anyone), actual price outcomes in the stock market do not follow a classic bell curve distribution (though delta, AFAIK is calculated based on a Gaussian normal distribution). If you plot the outcomes, the histogram has fatter tails than a normal...

In that case they'd be selling, as they are at risk of the shares being put to them

4th percentile, i.e. IV30 has been lower than the current value only on 4% of the days in the past 52 weeks; on 96%, of the days it's been higher. I.e., it's really low these days. (I assume that the percentile in this context relates to a 52-week year, which it usually does)

Thus Spoke dl003

The problem with this strategy tends to be that, if the stock runs up hard, IV increases substantially, making those higher-strike calls much more expensive.

Any graph that shows inventory as absolute numbers and not as a % of production rate is at least slightly disingenious

bingo

Massive ATM put bet for next week

Survivorship bias. Of course a few survive and make it to the top. Not saying what you're stating must necessarily be false. Just saying that this observation is not overwhelming proof.

When a short buys a put, they usually buy it from the market maker. Since the market maker is at risk of getting the shares put to them if the put expires ITM, they will sell an equivalent amount of shares to be delta neutral. For example, if a short buys one put with a -0.5 delta, the MM would...

This is 100% accurate, at least for BMW. There were many model variants where you had to order certain extras to actually be able to buy the car/receive it in this lifetime. I don't know though if it was coordinated across manufacturers or not.

In other news, the "Fair Fund" seems to make progress:

might be that volume is not primarily driven by the number of shares, but rather by the total $ amount traded? As in, if stock price goes down 50% ($200->$100), volume picks up 100% (100M->200M) to keep the total $ amount traded constant? Just a theory -- IDK

no, then they'd exercise a call, not a put

in related "news" from our friends at Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-used-car-price-bubble-pops-weighs-new-car-demand-2022-12-27/

Zuckerberg once called Twitter a clowncar, saying something along the lines of "it's as if they [the Twitter team] sat in their clown car and drove it right into a gold mine" when talking about the (from his point of view) unexpected success of Twitter. Thus I lean towards the tweet referring...

That's my current working theory, that a really large shareholder is exiting and has been selling since days. Can we really blame them?

looks to me more like they don't want to trigger the uptick rule

going away from this segment, I had more the impression that he talked about a worst-case scenario. I think many statements he made about a recession in the last few weeks were in context of a "worst-case scenario", and I was under the impression that with his actions (e.g., selling more shares...

or Sep 2024 which have been available since a few weeks. Not touching anything earlier than that

smells like we're on track for capitulation....?

volatility works both ways -- up and down. Increasing IV "only" means that a larger move is expected. Can be any direction, since volatility is calculated using the square of the expected move, which eliminates the sign of the number

you are right. I was blurry. My intention was to highlight that the risk is losing the difference in strike prices if the share price goes through the short strike.

I listened to that segment and it was all "I think" and "maybe"

you can do that, but you'll need margin or cash to cover the difference between the lower short strike and the higher long strike. E.g., if you have $200 long call and a $150 short call, you'll need 100 x 50 = $5000 in margin/cash, and you need to be prepared to lose this money should the short...