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That's why you charge on arrival in winter. Or stay in a location that will require you to drive 20 miles + in the morning to a supercharger.

Rivian's spend on public chargers seems primarily designed to influence their typically naive potential buyer. But they do seem to have backed off on funding a lot of level 2 chargers. But Rivian's fundamental problem remains the need to sell R2 at a rate of a couple hundred thousand per year...

https://electrek.co/2023/04/28/ford-ceo-warns-tesla-product-freshness-ev-commodities/ I do think Tesla has too few models. Demand looks best at peak demand for every specific model. Or to write it another way, the best argument for great demand is in the year before the decline.

No, I'm not sure. But its likely that driver monitoring software is done. There's been an in car camera for a long time. It's also certain that more processor is needed for FSD or there would not be HW4

Rivian is 11K towing rating, I think. But for frequent towing I don't like the trailer to be much heavier than the tow vehicle without a 5th wheel. I think the chance of CT being structurally designed for a 5th wheel is about 0.

Sheathing on a common wood frame building is a necessary structural component, but it is not an exoskeleton. If the majority of load on the CT is carried on internal structure it doesn't have an exoskeleton by a conventional use of the term. It will be interesting to see if the exterior is...

In the U.S. it appears all models are available for fast delivery. But the problem with these discussions is the simpe fact that Tesla is in three major markets with probably uncorrelated demand.

Ha. I've been saying no exo for a year and getting poo poohed. If I'm wrong this post and others will be deleted.

Tesla is likely not hands free with HW3 because they don't have the processor budget to use for running the processes that would evaluate driver attention.

To date Tesla plans based on cost. They then price based on actual demand. I( don't see how Model Y price history is relevant to the argument that the CT will be relatively inexpensive. The Model Y was priced correctly at launch. That MY price increased substantially when demand increased...

But you know Elon had final approval. This is how the yoke became a thing. Disinterest with final approval is not a great combo. This is perhaps how "infinite demand" became the core of Tesla's product plan.

Not the point. We were discussing demand. There was not deep demand for the Model Y in 2020.

No news? It went down on Troy's numbers

All automakers have excess capacity. The interesting question is whether Tesla is included. Is there a relative pause in EV growth after the covid buying frenzy? I think we will know later in the year.

Not true. The model Y could be purchased without much wait in Q4 2020. I know because I bought one. I didn't have a pre-production order. I vaguely remember Model Y LR prices ranged from $47-49K in 2020. What's my wait if I order a CT nine months after production start? I'm not confident of...

The figure is also not inventory. It's a guess at inventory for the information Tesla chooses to expose. Graphing that sort of number against hard data implies a precision that doesn't exist. But still worthwhile. It also doesn't particularly reveal the critical metric of sales growth

Elon is rationalizing lower margins. If he was serious they wouldn't be building CT. They would be targeting the huge north american better SUV and pickup market. And then selling the medium size vehicles in that class to Europe and other more affluent countries. Tesla would also recognize the...

Tesla is making more 3/Y than the market wants. That won't be true for CT. My guess is original price plus $10K for inflation plus another $5K to $10K because they can. This price level still represent good value

Because more money is better than less money

You understand that Musk is neither a scientist or inventor? Strangely you left Nikola Tesla off your list of scientists.

First reviews do look good. But its a lot more expensive than a Model Y LR

Musk is very likely past peak. Historically the decline always happens with these guys. The question with Tesla is if better decision making is possible with him as CEO. Pinning the hope for TSLA on FSD being viable is ridiculously sad for a company that has so many strengths. The fact that...

Looking at 3/Y margins they likely ant to start CT production as soon as possible. It seems that the 4680 battery hurdle has been cleared. I think Tesla's real schedule is starting the line in Q3 but setting low expectations.

The problem with your opinion of the 3/Y design being ugly and a mistake is that the market has clearly shown you to be spectacularly wrong. I do agree that Tesla has become boring unless CT punches one's ticket.

Why is Tesla selling CT at a lower price than the market will pay? To date Tesla has priced to set demand to meet their production goal.

The SP500 has outperformed ARK since Cath started her Tesla prognostications

The question is whether Tesla is becoming an old American brand in China. The young consumer preference in China is clearly shifting away from American car brands.

Tesla makes a SUV?

I don't think the primary concern is about the income statement. It is probably about Musk's comments of high demand just a month ago. The Tesla story has always been "we could sell more if we could make more". Now the question is perhaps how does Tesla's growth projections match up with the...

I agree. I expect the CT launch to be like Model Y. Mostly painless. Tesla is a very sophisticated manufacturer now. Rivian did a fantastic job considering they are a startup. But Tesla is massively more experienced. The R1T weighs 7300 pounds. Tesla would design a similar vehicle closer to...

Rivian is likely screwed because their future less expensive vehicle, the R2, must sell in volume and at decent margin in the Model Y price range. There no evidence that Rivian is skilled or clever at designing for good margins. Without that happening Rivian won't become cash flow positive. The...

Tesla will take the Rivian prospects who find the 1/2 price model Y a much better deal. Tesla won't take most higher priced buyers because they don't have a traditional style SUV or a pickup. The comparison of R1T/R1S sales to the Model X shows what most buyers want.

The downside of owning an EV made by a now defunct company is probably considerably greater than with ICE. No computer in a Delorean. I don't see how these small startups can spread their software developments costs over enough vehicles. Even Rivian with a 12 billion IPO may not scale...

CT didn't need to be maximized. It needed to be the basis for a range of pickups and SUVs of several whellbases. Tesla has a substaintial lead in manufacturing. They have the price advantage. Eliminating 2/3 of potential customers before the first one goes on sale while planning for high growth...

1.5 new models in 11 years. No real SUV. A freaky truck incoming that should have been the basis for selling a million pickups and SUVs. This will be the drag on TSLA. Cybertruck will sell out production and have great reviews. It was also a stupid choice of vanity.

.Choosing the Cybertruck design shows that Tesla is not following their mission. Tesla's primary risk is not the innovator's dilemma. It's Musk making dumb vehicle choices and expecting Tesla owners to be continuely interested in either old or freaky looking vehicles. Manufacturing is ready to...

Is Tesla demand low? I can have any Tesla model I want before the end of the month. Frantic demand has cooled for a lot of previously hot vehicles. Except the Bronco, of course. One Bronco gets closer to demand equilibrium that vehicle will be sitting on lots with markups potential buyers...

IIRC Tesla claims the back squats and the side reach over is no worse than a standard large pickup with horizontal edges.

CT will likely have some great third party tool holding mods for the bed. As a general purpose tool, like farm and ranch work, CT should be great. It would have been equally great without the freakazoid exterior.

I just drove by a large union crew modifying a bridge. Mostly welders and equipment operators. Not one of their long line of pickups could be replace by CT based on the content of their pickup beds. If Musk was serious about replacing light pickups he picked an inappropriate product. I bet the...

The Model Y is now down to the $50Ks because that is where demand matches capacity. Tesla is willing to adjust price weekly if necessary. Tesla's pricing last year of the MYP at $70K suggests the CT will have the a high price as long as the CT order queue is deep. Tesla has also been willing...

Maybe, but consider air suspension, usable air compressor, 120V inverter, 18" screen, rear screen, hardware 4, 100 kwh battery for 300 miles, expensive tires, armor glass, and one or two extras we are not expecting. For the size and features dual motor 300 mile for $79K is a good price. That...

I agree. CT is a Musk vanity product. He was presented a range of options and he picked the most outragous. I feel it will sell well, but its hardly the vehicle to transition traditional pickup owners to EV. Besides being weird it won't accept the many mods truck users expect. The Rivian R1T is...

That is interesting. Plus the unused camera connector on the board. Tesla seemed to have designed this verion to be upgradeable, also considering the empty space on the board

Any good reason my car would be preheating the battery 4 hours before departure?

This whole package is the problem traditional truck manufacturers face with Tesla. The semi is a giant Model Y with some add-ons. Tesla is already at scale with the semi. Perhaps a missing part from the presentation was that the the retired packs from the semi are usable by the customer for...

Average maybe 25 cents per mile on electricity, 75 cents for diesel. It will really depend upon electricity cost at night which varies a lot by location.

18 mpg ish?

I will be surprised if Tesla doesn't offer new powerwall features when the Cybertruck is released. I expect the residential side of Tesla Energy will see some changes beyond stopping installs in some markets. It was always dumb for Tesla to do residential installs. They only do it to pretend...