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Stopped by to see what the other side is thinking and just had to laugh. You people dont think the following things are extremely obvious: - $420 funding secured was an unsubstantiated stock pump. There was never any evidence that he had anything close to funding secured. - Elon agreed to the...

If you think this is bad, wait until you need it serviced.....

“Made for the service center and didn’t get used”???? That sounds fishy to me. I am pretty sure they would use early VINs or delivery rejects as loaners. I would absolutely insist on knowing whether the VIN had been assigned to someone and/or offered for delivery. Maybe go on to TMC...

To comply with Texas law, they are not allowed to sell you a new car that is located in the state when you pay for it. That activity can only be performed by a dealer and Tesla is legally prohibited from acting as a dealer (as are all other OEM’s). Tesla does not have a license to sell new...

You should be VERY careful about accepting delivery, given your report that you just ordered it days ago. For starters, Tesla is not allowed to legally sell you a new car that is in Texas when you ordered it. They are supposed to accept payment and then ship the car in. So, they could be...

You should definitely do a CarFax check. At least one other VIN in Dallas was rejected, then sent to Service King, but they filed a CarFax, so the second buyer rejected it too. Last I saw, that VIN was still in Dallas inventory. THey should disclose and discount for any CarFax.

Looks like around 300 - 400 cars now in the Dallas off-site lot according to @cardudetopanga on Twitter. Oddly, inventory going up so they are bringing cars into Dallas faster than they are delivering. Wonder if yours is there!??!

Take a look at Twitter @CarDudeToganga Posted some pretty rough pictures of some of the M3s in the Dallas off-site lot.

Question to this board - When does Tesla title the vehicle into a buyer's name? Do they have to title the vehicle to they buyer before they ship it into Texas? Or, does that happen during the delivery? Or, do they provide the title only after delivery?

Where is the Ft. Worth transit center? Can people just go there and get their car? How do you get the vehicle delivery report? Pretty interesting stuff there.

What VIN is assigned to you?

Troy - Any interest in adding a "rejected/recalled VIN" feature to the spreadsheet or the TMC Forums? Seems that many buyers are experiencing either notice from Tesla that their VIN will not be ready and getting a new VIN right before delivery; or, they are seeing their car and rejecting it...

I live near the Cedar Springs DC and stop by often. Lately have seen these VIN's: with no apparent issues: 37579, 39226, 34077, 39065, 59873, 36049, 53511, 3x992, 47258, 53511, 59885, 30797, 59131, 35520, 54008, 70869, 35287, 56970, 43449 35253 - this has been there over two weeks. 34348 - said...

In Dallas, I posted a VIN that had been rejected for paint and body damage by buyer #1. After Tesla proposed it to a second buyer weeks later, that guy found there was a CarFax report on the VIN. Not sure if second guy took delivery but the CarFax was out there. Maybe because Tesla uses...

What is your VIN? I go to the Dallas Delivery center from time to time and check on VIN's. Most of them seem OK but a few are disasters. Example - #34348 has been on the lot for several weeks and has "Needs work" written on the glass.

For starters, you should understand exactly what they had to fix. If its at all extensive, then you should ask where the work was done and if there is a Carfax report available. (Carfax reports are prepared by body shops and others as part of each vehicle's permanent record.) If there is a...

Great! You are in the 92 percent that did not participate. But, 8% of Tesla buyers have been participating and Troy has been extrapolating from there.

I agree - Troy’s estimate is quite a disaster in the making. Add this up: + 11,000 M3 in inventory (“transit”) as of 6/30. + Making ~3,500 per week in July = 15,000 - 7,000 units delivered in July = 18,000 units in inventory as of 7/31. Cost = $1 Billion. Something is seriously the matter...

Would like to hear from Troy on the matter as he is the expert. He has been spot on with all his numbers until now. But, even lower participation rates for more recent orders does not explain the lack of improved delivery results and the performance model percentages.

But are my observations based on the data correct? 1) Performance model has very small market share. 3% of total orders for North America. 2) Configuration volume has really slowed down now that the original reservation demand has been satisfied and only higher priced cars are available...

@Troy Here is what I am seeing in the spreadsheet lately. Wondering what you think of these observations: 1) New configurations are really low. Out of the 3,477 people that you have who reported a configuration, the rate was: Feb/Mar/Apr (configuration limited) - 2,457 configured = 40 people...

Leading theory is they are trying to prevent/slow M3 reservation cancellations after this weekends Republicangate and Pedo revelations.

Think about how seriously messed up this whole cave/tweet thing is and what it really says about life at Tesla: - Elon thinks that he is so smart that he can design a useful cave extraction sub while he is in a swimming pool in LA. Despite the fact that he knows nothing about the cave, the...

Oddly, it seems like they are actually punishing reservation holders. If you order from your reservation, you have to put up an additional $2500 so $3500 total towards your firm order. If you cancel and get your $1000 back, you can place a separate order and put up $2500 for that order...

I still think the reservation and delivery numbers have a terrible inconsistency. How can all these observations/facts be true: - 420,000 reservations as of May (per Musk) for a car that doesn’t exist ($35K version) and wont exist until at least 2019 . That many people who just leave $1,000...

I am just looking at the official Tesla press release; Troy’s M3 spreadsheet; and InsideEVs numbers. These all support the conclusions I came to. Weirdest situation really is (so far) complete lack of big uptick in scheduled deliveries. Tesla reports 11,000 M3 in transit at June 30 along...

I think they blew through the 200K in June. Here is why: - No evidence of tons of deliveries scheduled for July. If they had been holding back cars, you would have seen lots of deliveries scheduled for early July (and few in late June). But, we aren’t seeeing that at all. - Unless they...

Troy - Any comment on the apparent lack of deliveries being delivered and scheduled in July? Tesla reported 11,000 cars in transit as of 6/30 which is a huge number - almost twice their previous largest month of deliveries. Combine this with what should be increased production in July and I...

Bravo Troy! Your numbers were pretty much spot on. You pretty much nailed it on S/X deliveries and production. You were a little low on M3 deliveries which I think is due to the data degrading as they move away from the reservation list. Biggest miss was M3 production which was Troy - Very...

He didn’t say they made 5,000 this week. He said they “factory gated” 5,000 cars this week. Since deliveries have been really low lately, this makes total sense. They held a bunch of cars inside the factory gate and just now they are shipping them.

Those numbers would indeed be brutally low for Tesla shareholders. I dont think even the bears have the delivery figures that low. 20% decline in MS/X deliveries. M3 deliveries just over 1,000 per week... This all makes sense to me except for the M3 production vs. delivery numbers. Do you...

Troy - I love these spreadsheets but I am worried we are losing data integrity - are the original reservation holders still fully participating in this survey given all the time that has now lapsed? Are people cancelling and not updating their data? Are they moving ahead and forgetting about...

Maybe not a ready for mass market company....

Got the data from spreadsheets presented in this forum/website. Model 3 Invites #3 (Troy: There are a few identical files to avoid overcrowding) Is this data completely incorrect? My comments are based on the fact that 92% of the people who had a reservation in Canada and participated in the...

Wow -cool photo. First I have seen or heard of this lot. Looks like a full days production...

Extrapolated between the claimed 2500/week at 3/31 and current almost there of 5,000 per week. Maybe not quite 3,000 per week on average but they would be close by now if they were making the implied numbers.

So is Canada basically fully satiated for First Production Model 3? The spreadsheet is showing that there are 464 reservation holders that participated in the spreadsheet. Of these all but 38 have been invited to configure. So, 92% of reservations in Canada have been invited to configure...

Wait a minute bro...the last invites for a model 3 was April 18, That’s nine weeks ago. If they were making an average of 3,000 cars a week, that would be 27,000 deliverable cars since then. Even worse, of the 3,000 people in the tracking spreadsheet who were holding a configuration on May 1...

Very interesting work here. It seems to me that hitting 200K total US deliveries is all but a lock at this point. Even in a very dire scenario - only 4,000 M3 in June, they would still cross over. I also agree that there must be some big production slowdown on purpose. They invited a lot of...

Agree - please post if you know of a service center that is moving 50 cars a week.....

The spreadsheets from this forum report - of the 462 Canadian reservation holders in the sample - 425 of them (92%) have been offered a chance to order their M3. 148 of those have received a VIN number and 90 of those have received their car. From that sample, they project that around 1000...

Its fine. Be a fan. I get upset that he has burned through so much investor/government money and misrepresented so many material facts. Elizabeth Holmes never hurt me or cost me a dime - but it still bothers me that she got as far as she did....

It The tent is a sad joke. Seriously have people here not looked at the videos posted on Twitter? Cars not even moving; trailers towing car shells around. The permit for the structure only last for six months and then they have to take it all down. No electrical, plumbing, HVAC allowed...

New VINs on the Dallas lot yesterday: Vin #19320; #21970; #27522; #25791;#19603 Maybe one is yours?

Be sure you get a new, high VIN. I keep a close eye on the Cedar Springs lot and they have had several cars come in and sit for weeks. One was rejected for body damage and then repaired. Not sure if sold. Another had a sticker that said something like front failed. Another one has been...

@chojhn1 - What do you think of this whole situation now? Deliveries seems to be way, way off and invites are clearly staying at zero. So the good news is they are working off the backlog of invites that they made. But with invites at zero and deliveries at a fraction of what was expected -...

The photo from Musk is a poorly concealed attempt at fraud: - Zoom in on the reflection on the door. Photographer, rear of a car, and blue sky. Not the end of a production line. - The car is way too high over the wheel. No battery? Poorly adjusted suspension? - Lighting above car is clearly...

Saw it - hilarious. a) Very unclear what actual throughput production of the entire line is. Yes, pieces can work at 500 per day - but that is a far cry from consistently all working together at 500 per day. b) The temporary tent in the parking lot is for vehicle production. Seriously...

Yes you sure should....A car in Texas was refused for body work. Then sent to a repair shop and then offered to a new customer. He checked a car fax report and found evidence of the body work. The problem is the Carfax is permanent and will reduce the value in subsequent resale.

Sorry but Tesla does try to reassign VINs that are rejected for delivery. Here is a sequence I am close to: - Car was rejected upon delivery here in Texas due to damage. I recorded the VIN number in alternate thread. - Tesla repaired car with third party who logged the work onto Carfax report...