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  1. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    going sub 300 I guess before Christmas
  2. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    What do you guys will be a share price we could actually reach next week? I guess anything from 357 - 385 is possible ceteris paribus (no new new).
  3. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Lol, the United States could be such an awesome country, if they just cut 27% of these immensive military expenses. They are just crazy. Only 2% goes into transportation and 6% into education. Wow.
  4. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I have a friend that is short Tesla and I am trying to convince him that Tesla will reach 500-700 USD per share next year. His arguments are the following: a) Competition is coming and the order book of Tesla Model 3 is quite small. If you want a Model 3, you can order it today and you get it...
  5. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    And if it is not reached? There is always 2 sides of the coin. Of course I do hope as well that they reach it.
  6. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I wanted to do a very "realistic" model taking into consideration competitors and gross margins decrease. But even then, I'd estimate to see at least at 50-100% increase in Tesla share price. As a shareholder standpoint, I just try to be as realistic as possible to estimate risk/reward in the...
  7. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    1) Agreed 2) I believe that it can be greater than 400'000. However, not until after 2020. 3) Of course S/X prices will gradually decrease over the next 2 years as competition cars are coming into the market. This will put pressure on the margin's. Logical effect, even if the sold units of the...
  8. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I just played a little bit with the financial model of Tesla. In my opinion, the following data could be quite accurate regarding revenue growth and operating profit based on the following underlying 'realistic' and not 'optimistic' assumptions: 1.) Short-term until 2020/2021, I expect highter...
  9. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Electric cars are not only very quiet, they also drive exhaust-free. What at first glance looks like a pleasant step forward is a problem for more and more pedestrians dealing with music and smartphones in everyday life. Now comes the exhaust gas generator in Europe. Electric cars are...
  10. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    How much strength do you think there is left in TSLA stock? When comparing to historical stock movement, I guess the limit for the stock price sits currently (without any squeeze in question) around 385$. I do not see it going higher without further positive news.
  11. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Why are the sales for Model X and Model S so much down compared to September 2018? 17'750 Model 3's is within expectation?
  12. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I think Tesla is in an excellent position for a share price between 370 to 420$, but there are two main things that need to play accordingly for us: a) The macro's of the general market need to be positive, if the market continues to go down - I do not think we'll see over 350$. b) There needs...
  13. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    This might drop to 200.... Musk might go to prison for that now. Criminal Probe. Wow.
  14. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Tesla is facing criminal charges....
  15. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Where do you guys think will TSLA be trading in the next 4 weeks before and after the release of the Q3 results? Will we be able to achieve a new all-time high? Or is there still too much FUD going on? Is there even the possibility of a negative perception of the Q3 results leading to share...
  16. P

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    This 19.32% only shows the total percentage short as of today. But how do new go from a given tradinig volume per day, how many shares of that volume were shorted and how many shares were sold by people owning the stock?
  17. P

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    * Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 60.68% Can someone explain to me what that percentage means? Let's assume that the total share volume traded for a day is 1 million, that would mean that 606'800 shares were sold by shorts and only 393'200 shares by people actually owning the stock? Correct?
  18. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Unibanco Itau increased its stake by 432'000$; does anybody have any news from todays investor relation presentation at the Morgan Stanley conference center from Tesla? It began 2 Hours ago. Tesla jumps as its investor relations head gets ready to give a company update (TSLA) | Markets Insider
  19. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Again: I heard that there is a presentation held today at Morgan STanley Conference Center with Tesla, whatever that means, cannot find the article.
  20. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I heard that a presentation at the Morgan Stanley Conference would be held in the afternoon, does anyone have the news article? What does this main? Capital raise?
  21. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Now we only need +25% more to reach 350$!
  22. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Does anyone of you have expected Free Cash Flows for the years 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022? Is there any public realistic calculation available?
  23. P

    Fair Valuation of Tesla - Corporate Finance

    I cannot set up the model by myself because it takes a lot of work to do. I want also to hear inputs by other professionals. I'll set up the P&L and balancesheet (actuals) and I will also set up a business plan. Is there somebody that has access to Capital IQ?
  24. P

    Fair Valuation of Tesla - Corporate Finance

    The MasterFile v1 is only a draft version without any figures that are accurate. It only shows the setup for the work to be done by us. Currently I can not do all the work as I am quite busy, therefore we need to delegate the work on users in this forum that have experience with Corproate...
  25. P

    Fair Valuation of Tesla - Corporate Finance

    I am currently working but I have set up a Master File to work on for the financial model of Project Tesla. Please find it attached. We'll need to work on it together as I do unfortunately not have the time to put in all the necessary varialbes and information. The Master file shoud give you an...
  26. P

    Fair Valuation of Tesla - Corporate Finance

    Dear Members of Tesla, I am currently working at EY and I am doing basically valuation for huge public companies. My idea was that we could together estimate the fair value of Tesla considering the following valuation techniques: - Discounted Cashflow using professional variables and...
  27. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    The option and bond markets are usually very good indicators for the further development of the stock. Bonds are currently trading at an all time low and the option prices for put and call options are equal at 150$ and 300$. Therefore, the market is assuming the same probability for the stock...
  28. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    The 95% confidence intervall for January 18, 2019 is showing a possible range from 143.27$ to 454.34$
  29. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Of course, but plenty is always relative. They do also need to pay payables and the bonds in February 2019. So they paid the additional 680M this quarter? So Cash and equivalents might be quite low in Q3. Mod: Not likely a problem. Fully discussed up thread. Also, you should know of likely...
  30. P

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    So they are currently investing 680M USD, where did they get the money from? New bonds? MOD: Likely local government investing, see above, fully discussed.
  31. P

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    As much as I want your theory to be correct, shere logic is speaking against this. It makes no sense. He was planning to do a short squeeze of the century about 2 months ago and tweeted about his plans. 3 weeks later, he wanted to take Tesla private and we all know by today that his plan was a...