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He said the world is awash in oil, if that was the case the price should never be reaching what it is. I agree with you that we may be in a structural decline but lack of cap ex will lead to high prices this decade. The oil industry already had their one glut, it was the covid pandemic. I think...

Why are we comparing 2022 nat gas prices vs 2020 wind/solar, thing is when energy is expensive the costs to produce wind/solar also rise. Id expect wind/solar to still potentially be cheaper but its just poor comparison to do 2022 for one and 2020 for the other.

Well we have got two weeks to try and cut oil in half.

If that was the case you would think oil would never be close $120 a barrel.

As we watch polysilicons price only triple because... Chinas access to cheap coal has gotten more expensive.

I'm not sure how to tell you we can't unless you want to get all your solar panels from China. We have 3 polysilicon producers in the US and one is currently shut down, between the other two we produce 56,000 tons annually and it takes approximately 5,000 tons to create one 1 GW of solar...

lol it wont be too late, will it not be ideal? Sure, but it wont be too late. If you think we can build a grid purely in solar, wind and storage given our current state of mining in 10 years you are going to be disappointed. This also doesn't include every other nation on this earth, there is a...

It would take you the same time frame to ramp the necessary materials required to overbuild a solar base grid + storage compared to nuclear, without the negative of it being an intermittent power source. I stated nothing about running out of silicon, more the fact that its all mostly produced in...

Again, anything without nuclear is a folly. There is literally no way we ramp up mineral extraction for solar, storage, and EVs to facilitate a functioning grid and that is just looking at the US. Secondly polysilicon is a limiting factor with solar, there are only 3 companies in the US that...

Dude, his point is you linked an article whose title is literally "Europe can survive next winter without Russian Gas" and then goes on to link a Mackenzie article as its source, WITHIN that source article it literally says "She added: “If all Russian gas is cut off, Europe would have no chance...

Yup, but I don't see how one can logically see what he just wrote out as a realistically viable way forward. You would need nuclear power.

So basically everything is left to come? UK and all these European countries are chewing through coal at the moment. Renewable without base load power will always have an element of volatility. I see 0 world where you can add more electrical demand to the grid while just hand waving closing coal...

Whoops, typo should be 60% female vs 40% male**

It is interesting to see South Koreas CMR creep up to 1.5% considering they have tested 387,000 people to date and only received a small wave of hospitalizations compared to other locations around the world. Especially when most of their cases skewed towards young and female. (60% male vs 40%...

Showing signs of testing capacity ramping now with 4100+ confirmed cases today

It can be both but wind knocking over trees/branches onto lines and or poles pulling them down is the probably the most common cause (in regards to power lines). But there’s a lot of other reasons fires start, just this week the cause was guns, a trash truck on fire dumping its load and a...

This is the more interesting part to me. Is this just refilling the pipeline or are sales picking up.

I haven’t paid much attention over the past 2 months. Anyone have any China data from July and August?

I don’t think it was batteries, Elon stated 5-7.5k weekly being relatively light cap ex wise but beyond 7.5k wasn’t possible without significant cap ex costs. The paint shop is a more reasonable theory the kiwi threw out.

assuming 19% is including credits this is probably a couple % bump up from the 15% after credits of Q1, marginal improvement. Still far from the goal. Is this a particularly bad thing? What growth is it hindering at this point? or just they will have to spend more in Q3 and Q4 to hit the...

So operating cash flow basically backs out prior cap ex expenses via depreciation. How do they come to 500M? Just glancing at Q4 2018 they had 1.9B and now its 500Mish each quarter. If they are underspending on capex now (roughly 300M) how does that play out in the future? Does the "Changes in...

Trying to learn here. How does a company post a negative net income yet post positive operating cash flow? Where does the roughly 450M in Depreciation come back from? Is the 200M stock based compensation added back because its not a true "cost" ?

@Doggydogworld I saw what you posted regarding Anton’s numbers. What number do you not agree with? Seemed pretty reasonable to me. The only upside I could see is they pump out more than 1k a day for the final 6 days in NA.

Yea to me Elon’s last email seemed like a trying to not let employees take their foot off the gas email. I don’t think they get 90+ anymore, I think it’s closer to 87. I don’t see them doing 11,000 in 6 days.

Blank model type S/X have started to appear on the Norway registrations over the past 3-4 days. Best guess is those are Ravens.

There’s been confirmed euro deliveries, also noticeably some Norway Model X in the past two or so days have been delivered with the model type left blank, (possible Ravens?).

Looks about right.

Going off forums isn’t going to give you a true sense of production levels, especially in May. Reasons for that: -Numerous homologation issues (specifically NY and CA that have held deliveries back till 2nd half of June and it’s even been mentioned in the Netherlands.) -Early production in the...

I believe the cars at the pier are RHD, but my guess would be UK.

GMT Astro is now docked at Pier 80 after making stops at Benicia and Richmond. Twitter had Pier 80 with only 1k cars waiting and no activity as of today at 1:10pm. Additionally Morning Cornelia is en route to Benicia, should arrive 6/21, has delivered Teslas before so we will see if that ends up...

Anyone have any good views of the Port of Richmond currently?

That 7k number you are using lacks a S&X component for China and your full calculation lacks a car carrier that went to Japan early in Q2. So I think its reasonable to assume 63k for NA puts us in the range of 92k if Europe cracks 20k.

I don't particularly like using them for China, for multiple reasons, their March to April data doesn't make sense even by their own numbers when you check the YTD totals. March 5300 YTD 5300 April 3000 YTD 6737 May 2000 YTD 7392 But also if you do some rough calculations with the...

Thanks, that makes sense.

Edit, misread the chart.

Look I’m not arguing against you, it totally could change to SR/LR on the registrations but what I’am saying is that the naming of S/X changed before the existence of Raven, have you noticed any non numerical S/X? No. Will it happen for Raven? We will know in a few days.

Model number doesn’t likely mean anything otherwise they haven’t sold an S/X built in the last 4 months. I’m not saying Ravens have been delivered but Tesla changed to LR/SR naming in January.

See my reply a few pages back.

I saw that and maybe another delivery scheduled for the 21st? I used google translate so hard to tell.

Interesting, when did you order?

Have people in Europe received new Raven S/X?

Didn't Tesla switch to calling them SR and LR prior to Raven? (except SR didn't exist until they brought it back) article dated Jan 29th: Tesla Changes Model S & X Trims & Pricing, Drops Names Based On Battery Sizes | CleanTechnica Model S 2019 update (raven) leveringen This is in dutch I...

What is your reasoning that those are all Pre Raven.

Boat went to Benicia, remains to be seen if it will head to Pier 80 after.

⛴ Morten Grove on Twitter

The first SR+ have started to hit Europe.

This seems like the sweet spot right now.

Well depends, if going forward they start by putting their newest/best technology into the S/X first theres a solid chance they can keep these sales high. They had a big misstep letting the 3 have better charge rates than the S/X, that should never happen. I get they are/were in a tight spot and...

If you see that citi bank report for May floating around twitter that would be helpful. Last time it came out on April 21st so maybe late this week early next.

April was around 2300 most from Q1 ships. I have not seen any May figures yet for China.