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  1. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Decide how many minutes you have. Start playing that many minutes from the end. Sasha is on fire here. Topic: FSD (Saw this video posted to this thread earlier, sorry, couldn’t locate it to link locally)
  2. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    5 years is incredibly pessimistic on a two week update cadence that addresses three items per update. An item might be adding reverse, escape from any cul-de-sac, or it might be something cosmetic on the display. Let’s review in a month to assess their def of “significant”. The value jump...
  3. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Saw this yesterday from Cern Basher and I think it’s a big deal that almost nobody’s talking about. FSD 12.3 is exciting, but more exciting is the rate of improvement. This rate of dev on the end-to-end model was completely unknown to outsiders until last weekend. Now we’re being told about...
  4. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    A hint to expect fast cadence of releases is in Ashok’s post. The “next few releases” will be complete “soon”, is how I read it. - Observations The time gap from 12.2 to 12.3 was typical. 12.3 was declared by Musk to be a big change (as if v13). 12.3 has some (hopefully) easy fix...
  5. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    A beautifully written post from James Douma. tldr HW3 is up to the task with plenty of room for eventual optimisation. HW4 exists because silicon improvements are a gift not to be refused.
  6. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Interesting. The value, Chris argues, comes from up to date data collected by Tesla robots (cars n soon bots), required to model real world interactions for the likes of Sora to remain current. He believes the recent injection of funding to Figure AI is because the investors want data access...
  7. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I don’t think he twigged at any point that he could wake up to a full battery every day, or that it had no scheduled servicing. Calling it a “normal car” is something you might do if you had staff to go fill up and handle servicing. Or maybe I just detested those things more than normal people. 🤷‍♂️
  8. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Don’t know what this means yet. Omar sounds excited though. Edit: to Early Access Testers, apparently. Is that a big set?
  9. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If I squint at the Keeling Curve I see slight downward concavity from about 2020. Are we seeing the start of the solar/wind/storage/EV/heat-pump effect? 🤞 Of course, climbing while arcing down merely means enhancement of the greenhouse effect continues, at a slower rate. Arcing up would be worse.
  10. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Watched three videos today that contained the thought: If Sora, then when FSD? Matt Pocius, Steven Mark Ryan, Dr Know It All. Optimus too feels less science fictiony today.
  11. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Last chance to buy below 200 folks 😎 #psychology
  12. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is confusing me. Silicon carbide is in the power electronics, used to put AC into the grid from cells which are obviously DC. Also to charge Megapacks from grid. Is it also used in cells? The exact same super hard material? If there was a shortage, it would be used for the *essential*...
  13. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The last para contains the words “high-speed”, right next to “ultra-automated”. I’m not letting go of the dream of 6 second cadence, yet. The logic: 20 seconds is too fast for humans, they would burn out, you lose the game to high staff turnover. High-speed necessitates zero-human. If you start...
  14. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    And is it wise to incorporate a decarbonisation company in an oil state? What’s the state of play on direct sales in Texas? Did they relent on that?
  15. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It’s fair only because it’s Musk and he’ll use it to fund Mars, a massive boost for science and engineering on Earth and potentially a backup for humankind. Anybody else and it’s super yacht money, entirely unfair. Zero chance the judge will understand this.
  16. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    He’s already earned the package that’s been rug pulled. Shareholders need to recognise that and re-award it immediately, with whatever legalese required to protect it from bad court decisions. With another vote at the same time, establish the new package.
  17. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Elon prob has a mental decision tree, for each process leading to four options: Kuka, Custom machine, Bot, Human. For next Gen, his earnings call words about building the machine that builds the machine, and being uncopyable by competitors, suggest mostly custom machine. Many assignments for the...
  18. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I’m struggling with the idea that lightweight bots with 5x the moving parts of a kuka, plus batteries, are a step forward. If the kuka *can* do it, or an even simpler machine with even fewer parts can do it, those machines *should* do it. Longer life. Less maint. Less traffic in the corridors...
  19. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Building the next Gen car? That would be as slow as using humans. I think they’ll try to keep it hands free, possibly start to finish. Like a cannery or a 4680 line. In my dreams, the line has a 6 second cadence. Why not? It gets them to 20m run rate. It’s never been done. Hasn’t stopped Musk...
  20. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Good news or bad news? Tesla is owed billions for megapacks delivered but not fully commissioned. Primarily good. It means energy growing faster than the revenue tells. But needs tighter contracts and faster connection permits? edit: I may have read something about lower prices for those who...
  21. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Weekend Off Topic Ever wondered how the Starlink stationary disk creates and listens to a narrow beam signal, and directs it to a satellite crossing 100° field of view in three minutes? Then this vid is for you. I watched this morning, riveted. This afternoon I find myself reflecting that all...
  22. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    https://x.com/KevinGShang/status/1747263466392711580?s=20 Big if true. These sort of prices were forecast for 2030. Takes EV below parity price, killer blow for ICE. Makes it clearer that RE + storage is the way. Has to be a good time to be in EVs and megapacks, even if it takes a little gloss...
  23. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    When the prod‘n n delivery figures drop, remember that one ship was turned back to Shanghai from Australia with bed bugs. Those vehicles will be delivered Q1. The shipping co insurance liable for costs, I’d imagine.
  24. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    2024 prediction (wish): Optimus proof of concept video drops in Q1. Shows the bot working half a dozen real production jobs around the clock. May demonstrate monkey-see monkey-do training. May follow verbal instructions. Rationale is that Brett Adcock of Figure is seeing software that would...
  25. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So when a legacy auto company bankrupts releasing its labour pool, the market surges, right?
  26. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What Usain said, with one more critical difference between Robotaxi and Bot - the overnight proof of concept. Robotaxi cannot blindside an observant investor. The proof it works will always be months or seasons in duration. Even if shown to work in one city, there will be doubts, people sitting...
  27. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Two takeaways: Factory bot precedes retail bot, for three good reasons. - controlled environment - single point of contact (one satisfied buyer of a thousand bots, not a thousand pernickety customers) - economics, the bot is worth much more to the factory where it can work round the clock...
  28. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I’m thinking 6 seconds. Elon likes orders of magnitude and 10 a minute makes for easy math. Yeah I know, setting myself up for disappointment. On the other hand. Unpainted removes the biggest constraint. The line could be designed for two speeds - initial human mode and ultimate Optimus mode.
  29. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I view the range extender primarily as a stfu’per. It denies other vehicles bragging rights and denies CT buyers whining rights. It will rarely be used. It will comfort those buyers who adamantly believe they need that range, then subsequently discover the up sides of supercharger paced road...
  30. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    “tesla dot com slash cybertruck” Say it a couple of times. Drop it into conversations. If the presentation was a 4, the site is a 9. It almost makes the CT look too good, like “this must cost a fortune”. No doubt at all it’s gonna sell. Cheers.
  31. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Initially there was talk of 1pm start. Now it’s 2pm. Allowing half hour for late start, half hour preamble, NY day market, an hour ahead, possibly closed before the key announcements of price/range.
  32. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Cern Basher works through his models for 5 of the “startups” within Tesla. Warning, might leave you giddy with possibilities. Stay grounded.
  33. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Hitch up something that’s not streamlined and drive fast, your range will halve. If it’s designed for low drag and you sensibly drop speed by 10%, you might only lose 20% range. The naysayers will describe every towing experience like the first one.
  34. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Do you tow? The “No” people are group A. Do you tow only locally, or on road trips? Local - group B, trippers - group C. My estimate is 1 in 4 are group C. Only group C *need* a long range battery. Many in group B think they need a long range battery. They either forget that they can wake up...
  35. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So much to get excited about. From top of my head: fsd 12 interest rates megapacks delivery numbers cyber delivery event cyber specs n prices cyber reviews short capitulation factory developments (Mexico, China Megapack, India, Nevada Semi) US Highland direct application of tax credit 4680 ramp...
  36. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    $3b on a 15% FSD take rate at $12k on Teslas sold in China to the end of 2023. Happy thanksgiving (not a thing here, it’s beach weather).
  37. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Starship launch possibly this Friday 😯 How many cybertrucks will they work into the broadcast? Better than any ad money can buy.
  38. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is huge and when confirmed should rightly boost the stock (not to say it will of course), translating directly into lower op ex. 30 second production cadence. Wow. It’s badly worded due to language barrier but there’s no other way to read it.
  39. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It’s def inference, not training, in the car. Memory and bandwidth not in the same galaxy for training. Dr Know-it-all discusses in this vid.
  40. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Everyone‘s a winner baby, xAI 🎶 We’re looking at two things here. First is xAI has a competitor to Bard and chatGPT, named grok, rhymes with croak. Nerds already love this word, means to understand innately. Elon is going to monetise it via X platform, $16/mth (or $10 extra for existing blue...
  41. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So we wake up one day and can start having intelligent conversations with our cars. Presumably only shallow conversations while driving - but could get deep n meaningful at the supercharger. I can think of relationship implications, more people drawn by physical factors, for mental stimulation...
  42. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not crazy. Ok, the correlation is crazy but the solution is real. If one accepts Master plan part 3, decarbonisation lowers the cost of everything. Transport especially gets cheaper, swapping oil for electricity. Electricity incurs a transition cost but then provides dirt cheap energy for 25yrs...
  43. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I remember that note. Perplexing then and now. Is AJ saying: give up on EV, you can’t win, just enjoy the ICE party while it lasts?
  44. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Mmm, but I’d like to see them build the structures, get services connected, and only if necessary pause then. Worst case it’s an expensive solar farm for a year. It’s not like they don’t have the cash.
  45. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Some important numbers from Limiting Factor guy Jordan. Further savings I think by avoiding transport from afar when the cells/pack is made at the car factory.
  46. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Elon says that he thinks about the fall of Rome. I’m betting he at least sometimes thinks about the day CRT televisions vanished from the shelves of electrical stores. What caused that exactly? Was it flat screen TVs that were better than CRT units, but more expensive? Or was it because the flat...
  47. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    s curves, disruption, 4680, megapacks, EVs, robotaxis, Optimus, solar I could try to put those things into a coherent response, but Adam Dorr does it so much better. Nuclear can’t save us because it has a negative learning curve.
  48. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yeah, bigger than has been seen before I think. So if it’s not for cybertruck (which I figure would have been seen when the ones in use arrived), then my thoughts go to next Gen. And given the size, it’s for casting the whole underbody as single piece… Wild guess and I know people follow these...
  49. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What have we here? Could these be single piece Gen 2 molds?
  50. Carl Raymond

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Both locations is my guess. In the frunk they’re a big selling point for tradies who will use frunk as tool locker. By configuring a permanent tool battery charge station there they save set up time on every job that requires battery swap. Also prevents their batteries being nicked (accidentally...