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"Bill Wright", a Tesla engineer not averse to posing riddles on his Twitter account, posted a screenshot of Steve Jobs at the iPhone unveiling with "iPod, Phone, Internet" on the huge screen behind him, accompanied by a question mark. His Twitter photo is of Justin Timberlake, and his bio reads...

This theory reminds me of 2019, when when then NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine publicly chided SpaceX for delays with Crew Dragon, then shortly after, Jim and Elon held a press conference to discuss resolution of the issues. My impression at the time was that it was important to show Boeing...

Listening again to the earnings call. i find it useful to go back and listen again non-contemporaneously. There is so little signal amongst the noise in investing; it is sensible to amplify it and keep it front of mind. When Elon talked about deploying FSD Beta, he added “for city streets, to...

Paul Krugman on Tesla yesterday: If you’re one of those people who bought bitcoin or another cryptocurrency near its peak last fall, you’ve lost a lot of money. Is it any consolation to know that you would have lost a similar amount if you had bought Tesla stock instead? OK, probably not...

Tesla China denies rumor that EV orders are lower than expected Tesla China have said the rumour f weak demand is false. If *Tesla* says it, that’s good enough for me.

Martin replied to me(!) on Twitter, when I wondered at the size of other IR teams. He said: "IR teams are easily 7-8 people, sometimes more Do more without bloating teams - that's how you get operating leverage" I really feel that efficiency is in the bones of the company at this point.

To illustrate Leo KoGuan's point about P/E compression, here is my adapted graph of Tesla's P/E Ratio, including my conservative-ish guess for Q3 (the arrow). I wonder what will happen in the second half of the graph.

An easy mistake to make, but let’s all be very clear: this is not a Tesla account: look in the account information at the “location“ that says “Parody”. No need to pay any attention to this account but it may be useful to reply to the tweets making sure others also realise it is someone’s joke...

My two cents on why the long range Model 3 disappeared from the order page: One-off distortion of mix The tax credit’s 2023 start date provides a temporary disincentive to order other models, but the Long Range Model 3 is not affected. Logically we should expect an artificially high...

I abbreviated Rob Maurer’s table, for handy-dandy reference, showing current prices and their change since the start of 2021:

I’m glad to see pressure building with this article, but this is only a second Alexandra when there is a mirror in the room.

Australian Model 3 & Y prices did get hiked (the Y price went up AUD$2,800 from memory), days after the Model Y order page launch, the day after the US price hike.

For questions of the stock taking off, it is useful, or at least personally amusing for me, to use the rocketry concept of NET (no earlier than) dates. I don’t play with options, which is good, because this is all probably wrong: Principles: CapEx – NET 6 months before running in a steady...

On my radar this week FSD Beta 10.12, due this coming week, said by Elon to be a big one, with improvements in heavy traffic and tricky left turns Shanghai production re-ramp Transporting Shanghai cars to Europe, and Australia/NZ by quarter’s end, or if “the wave” will go away...

Fortune favours the brave! Some (known or imputed) lucky breaks: * As @elasalle notes, Austin and Berlin are opening and ramping as Shanghai pauses production * In the lead-up to potential Build Back Better incentives, Tesla raised prices ahead of experiencing inflation in material costs. *...

This is a good sign! A pre-requisite to this should be a further reduction of phantom braking on highways, which is arguably a bigger deal for driver comfort than the higher speed limit. They are already on this path: On the FSD Beta 10.11 release notes they explicitly called out fewer false...

First mention of FSD Beta 10.12 (no release date): Elon tweets that it will significantly improve unprotected left turns.

Current Earnings per share (trailing twelve months): $4.90 Subtract Q1 2021 EPS: -$0.39 Add @The Accountant GAAP estimate for Q1 2022: +$2.50 = $7.01 EPS Multiply by 200: = $1402 Or, after Q2 results come out in July/August, again in line with @The Accountant expectations, with your...

@Mengy is saying the share price (P) will likely not go up in line with the earnings (E) this year. The P/E ratio, or share price divided by annual GAAP earnings per share, as shown on Yahoo Finance and elsewhere, is currently 206.21, which is $1010.64 divided by $4.90, the GAAP earnings of the...

Copying and pasting Steven Mark Ryan's valuation by year, with catalysts, from his recent video: I posted this just now in @TheAccountant's valuation thread, but it is useful here too. Year Bear Case (6% chance) Base Case (60% chance) Weighted Average Bull Case (30% chance)...

Just posting Steven Mark Ryans's model from his recent video ( ) here, as a table, for posterity. Solving the Money Problem - Tesla model Year Bear Case (6% chance) Base Case (60% chance) Weighted Average Bull Case (30% chance) Hyperbull (small chance) Catalysts 2022 1302 1713...

Elon agrees, he tweets: "Vector lanes is a particularly significant architectural improvement to Tesla AI" This is one of the changes Elon alluded to in his Lex Fridman interview, in relation I think to vulnerable road users (I may be misremembering though). Lanes seems like a good place to...

FSD Beta 10.11 has Been released to employees, per WholeMarsCatalog on Twitter. Release notes attached. A lot to be excited about: notably the first implementation of a transformer neural network doing the work of connecting the “bag of points”, which was previously handed to C++ to decipher.

Stop! Date is actually April 7

Ok numerologists, 934 091’s only two prime factors are 229 x 4079. Mean anything to anyone?

Release notes for FSD Beta 10.5 (I saw this on reddit) Improved VRU (pedestrians, bicyclists, motorcycles) crossing velocity error by 20% from improved quality in our auto-labeling. Improved static world predictions (road lines, edges, and lane connectivity) by up to 13% using a new static...

@nativewolf I think you raise an important uncertainty. I would love to hear your thoughts and those of others on Tony Seba's Clean Energy U Curve, presented at the start of last year, which suggests that overbuilding solar will help with the limited supply of batteries.

Elon has just replied to Lex Fridman tweeting about his thoughts on AI Day saying "Summarized well". Here is the text of Lex's AI Day reaction video: Lex Fridman Tesla AI Day presented the most amazing real-world AI and engineering effort I have ever seen in my life. I wrote this, and I meant...

Elon has just replied to Lex Fridman tweeting about his thoughts on AI Day saying "Summarized well". Here is the text of Lex's AI Day reaction video: Lex Fridman Tesla AI Day presented the most amazing real-world AI and engineering effort I have ever seen in my life. I wrote this, and I meant...

Read this article by Jose, and you will have gleaned everything there is to know about EV sales in Europe this year: Plugin Vehicles Hit 19% Market Share In Europe In June! Tesla Model 3 Has Best Month Ever! Short answer: Tesla has the best-selling model in Europe, VW Group overwhelm Tesla in...

Thank you - you have talked sense into me.

Thinking back to Elon’s 25 April 2018 tweet, “Oh btw I’m building a cyborg dragon” Surely this is the one-more-thing on AI day. “Dragon” gives them licence to make a cool mobile robot in a non-humanoid shape that works better for functionality. Am I crazy?

Just adding a thought: I think the next two should be in Europe and China. Elon responded to the Institutional Investor question about how quickly they could potentially "cut and paste" factories with a comment that "there is no cut and paste" because for every new geography, you need a new...

Tesla AI Day will be August 19th - announced by Elon on Twitter just now :) - interesting to look in on this thread again. Edit: "Convincing the best AI talent to join Tesla is the sole goal" - Elon

Alternatively, to utilise batteries in a chip shortage, Tesla can shift mix to long-range vehicles, by raising the price of Standard Range Model 3, to make Long Range more attractive.

Cyberviking would make a good name for the ship that Tesla may make (in 5-15 years). Elon keeps saying ship in front of plane when he lists the forms of transport that will eventually go electric.

What are the new products this year that Elon and Zac alluded to on the Q4 2020 conference call? I am slightly suspicious about Elon’s suspicious downplaying of solar efficiency improvements in his recent Joe Rogan interview. I agree with the part of his answer that said solar will never...

I see that at least one supercharger (Joliet, IL)has 2022 as its expected date. Edit: there is at least one more marked 2022. I won’t post more updates though ;)

https://twitter.com/freshjiva/status/1342779399767265280?s=21 Mayur Thaker doesn’t believe active managed funds benchmarked to the S&P will go equal weight TSLA in the near term, partly because of the newness of Tesla’s P/E ratio. It seems to me that Tesla are more inclined to make their...

A little more detail: Next month, Japan’s tax commission will announce tax code changes to take effect in April 2021. The linked article says that it is likely that tax breaks will target lower lithium ion battery costs, to encourage electric cars. Japan weighs tax incentives to reach PM's...

The document where Honda joined the pool is dated 30 October (last Friday). https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/c37a5306-28b9-4753-88aa-b7f3f42c1878/M1%20declarations%20of%20intent%20to%20form%20open%20pools%20(04.05.2020).pdf

Other investors’ interest may be piqued if they see the PE ratio come down under 1000 this week, even if we have seen it coming. Right now Tesla’s last 4 quarters of GAAP profit total $368 million. This quarter’s profit will replace the Q3 2019 GAAP profit of $143 million. If they beat...

Regarding EU regulatory credits: It's the last quarter of 2020. This year manufacturers get a credit for an imaginary car alongside their credit for every electric car they sell (emitting less than 50g/km CO2). Next year, they have to sell two such cars to add an imaginary car's credit (and...

Since the interesting discussion up-thread between @MC3OZ and @jbcarioca following on from Elon’s comment that Tesla will definitely enter the Indian market next year, I have been reconsidering some of Elon’s other recent remarks: First, about the Shanghai- and Berlin-designed vehicles “for...

A great thread worth reading, as is usual with @ReflexFunds - for those who can't access it, the size of the impact of accounting for Elon Musk's CEO stock tranches is not affected by the current stock price, but by how many operational milestones are expected to be reached. So it is likely to...

I think battery day will be seen in a different context to autonomy day, which tanked the stock, and I’m not selling into the event. Although Autonomy Day produced a downward trend in the stock, TSLA was being valued on fundamentals. In this context, the vague presentation of the business case...

Agree. At a 40% CAGR, Tesla in the 11 years between 2020-2030 inclusive will make 54 million vehicles. They will then be making 20 million cars a year. At 50% CAGR it's 91 million, and 30 million cars a year.

In the shadows of battery day, it is worth remembering how much information about Tesla’s business can be gleaned from Autonomy Day. Thanks @jeewee3000 for this summary from January. It is also worth remembering that Elon said last October that Plaid would enter production in summer 2020.

Jeff Dahn said they’d cracked microcracking, on Slide 20 of his presentation at UBC: “So really it comes down to a very simple thing. To make a really good lithium-ion cell you have to do 2 things: Limiting the reactions between the charged electrode materials and the electrolyte is the...