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  1. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    And it should be added that to join NATO, a country must not have ongoing disputes about their territory. This means that Ukraine can only be admitted to NATO after the end of the war. And any territory that they would cease to Russia in piece negotiations would then legally no longer belong to...
  2. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    And another one down. https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-ukraine-downs-another-su-34/
  3. Dreadnought

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    R$ 100k = US$ 20k. And 75 EV hp are a lot quicker than 75 ICE hp.
  4. Dreadnought

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The steps are a little longer than in an earlier video. Walking speed, like the speed of anything else it does, doesn't need to match a human to be acceptable. At half the speed, it simply takes two Optimi to do the same work as a human. IMHO, it's already walking fast enough and they should...
  5. Dreadnought

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Agree, and the reason is that climate change costs money. There is direct damage from extreme weather events, indirect economic impact resulting from destroyed infrastructure and loss of life, which unfortunately can be measured in dollars and euros, too. The global costs of extreme weather that...
  6. Dreadnought

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    On the infamous Joe Rogan podcast, Elon said that he doesn't smoke weed because it interferes with productivity. Everybody who knows anything about Musk knows that he's a workaholic. That's his drug. Work, more work and then a few meetings with the engineers before going back to work. The WSJ...
  7. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I am flabbergasted that you, a long term member of this forum for over a decade, are falling for Putin's propaganda. Has the biased media doublespeak about Tesla, EVs and renewables not taught you how to see through similar patterns of lies and distorted versions of reality that Russia spreads...
  8. Dreadnought

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    "...so the operator, even if it's first day of job [sic], they cannot mix it up." Everyone who saw Optimus' latest performance, draw your own conclusions.
  9. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I don't recall the source but I read that they timed the attack such that it hit exactly when a senior staff meeting was in progress. Budanov's ever so humble comment: "We just gave some intelligence assistance. We always give 24/7 intel information to the General Staff." He's doing as great a...
  10. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Any allusion to military threats are so entirely baseless that it hurts my brain if anyone raises them as a justification for the war, doesn't matter if they're misguided or intentionally spread the narrative. The risk / reward ratio for attacking the biggest nuclear power is so adverse, even...
  11. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    A quick check for Germany showed that the numbers fit neither 2022 (+1.1M, significant contribution by Ukrainian refugees) nor 2021 (+82k). Source: Germa federal agency for statistics Edit to add: Population loss in Russia should have been greater last year as well, due to casualties of war and...
  12. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Luna 25 crashed at 57.55°S nearby the Pontécoulant crater, which is still a bit away from the pole. Its RTG provided 6.5W of electric power. I don't know the actual amount of Pu but calculating back from the thermal efficiency, it was somewhere between 170 and 200g. I applaud today's successful...
  13. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I'm with the ISW on this one: Ukrainian offensive operations in other sectors of the front remain important because they can fix Russian units in place and prevent further lateral reinforcements. Criticisms of continued Ukrainian efforts in other sectors and calls for Ukraine to concentrate all...
  14. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    A new report by Roscosmos states that it crashed on the surface of the moon. I second those who are glad that they couldn't pull a propaganda win out of this to boost the morale. This outcome more adequately reflects the current state of Russian science than a lucky succesful landing had.
  15. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Suspected mines that turn out to be rubble are less of a problem than plastic anti-personnel mines that cannot be detected this way. However, a quick web search turned up a couple of remote sensing approaches for mine detection, including AI-supported image recognition/ augmentation like...
  16. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    This is utter nonsense. Is Russia entering the  Wunderwaffen stage of Nazi Germany already? A slightly better idea would be to use such orbital class rockets as a giant hypersonic missile and leverage the unspent fuel as explosive or increase the payload. Still, this would not change the fact...
  17. Dreadnought

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Sounds tough. Maybe it helps if you write a song about it.
  18. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Or, one could say that he's got it all backwards. The name says it all and, ironically, is straightforward in this respect.
  19. Dreadnought

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Possibly related to an announced rebalancing of Nasdaq100, which reduces the weight of the top 7? https://www.investors.com/news/nasdaq-100-plans-special-rebalance-to-curb-dominance-of-magnificent-seven/?src=A00220
  20. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    An entertaining anecdote. Reminds me of the famous uncle who smoked two packs a day and lived into his nineties, brought forward as an argument that smoking can't be so dangerous after all. Easy to fall for this fallacy when it helps to confirm an opinion already held. Every exposure to...
  21. Dreadnought

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    If cell supply is the limiting factor, it makes sense to prioritise Austin over Berlin for IRA-propped margins.
  22. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Now would be a good time for another visit into Belgorod. Paging the Russian Liberation Army - or was it Liberation Army of Russia? - anyway, you know who you are.
  23. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    He's not the only one.
  24. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Read this in German news first but found it also on other channels. FSB is investigating Prigozhin for armed mutiny. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/23/wagner-chief-accuses-russias-military-of-attack-and-says-evil-leadership-must-be-stopped
  25. Dreadnought

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I heard they aim for 2050. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business/switzerland-in-2050--portrait-of-a-climate-neutral-country/48592634
  26. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Early summer might just be around the corner... If the dam breach was indeed deliberate with the intention of reducing the length of the front line, this could soon turn out as a classic example of shooting themselves into the foot. Edit to add: Ukraine controls the dam upstream at Zaporizhia.
  27. Dreadnought

    FSD discussion

    A merge of the FSD stack into the vanilla releases would be an even bigger step forward for anyone currently stuck with the dated legacy autopilot branch, be it those who won't / can't cough up the 15k for FSD and all of us outside of North America.
  28. Dreadnought

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    And besides the golf ball, there are other approaches to reduce surface layer turbulence, like a plastic film inspired by shark skin: https://asianaviation.com/aeroshark-from-lufthansa-technik-and-basf-now-certified-for-boeing-777/ Good for 1% drag reduction in this application. I wonder if...
  29. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    When the Russians blew the bridge over the dam in November, it may have affected the overall structural integrity or the floodgates. The water level had been rather low for quite some time, which I had interpreted as a deliberate measure to keep the Dnipro at an elevated level to complicate a...
  30. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    This is very sad. One can only hope that everyone downstream gets out of harm's way in time and the NPP gets shut down. I'd call it a strategic move, though. The dam, as far as I know, was still usable as a bridge. And way up in this thread, it was speculated that closing the floodgates of the...
  31. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I think you're right about that today's the day. Although the article says June 4th. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-to-block-counteroffensive/
  32. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    The OSINT community has covered this war in a breadth and depth far beyond what I'd have thought to be possible, despite being aware of open source aerial imagery, AI and other tools. The russian fortifications have been mapped for several weeks now but today, I stumbled on this detail analysis...
  33. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    No. An unknown number of russian diplomats have recently (yesterday?) been expelled “with the aim of reducing the Russian intelligence presence in Germany”...
  34. Dreadnought

    FSD Beta v11.x

    This is the machine-translated wording of §7 (4) StVO: IANAL but my read of "roads with several lanes" is that it implies that all lanes have equal rights and therefore does not apply to on-ramps. The zipper merge minimizes congestion when a lane ends or is blocked. With light traffic, it...
  35. Dreadnought

    FSD Beta v11.x

    Zipper merge is recommended (in Germany) when two lanes with equal rights merge. Highway on-ramps and similar constructs don't have right-of-way. A car on the ramp has to give way and find a gap to merge. In other words: It's expected to merge from a ramp as soon as it's safe to do so. With a...
  36. Dreadnought

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Giga Berlin went from 3k to 4k shortly after the 3rd shift started. Anyone who knew about the additional shift and paid attention in 4th grade math knew that 3k wasn't the end game. Now 5k per week is interesting news as they meanwhile ramped beyond the 1500 per shift when they were at 2 shifts...
  37. Dreadnought

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If the question was why not more of the heat energy is converted to electrical energy: There is a theoretical limit, the Carnot efficiency for the amount of work that can be extracted from heat energy. It solely depends on process temperature, which is limited by materials (i.e. cost) and...
  38. Dreadnought

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Before we throw a shade on hydroelectric power generation, let's do a bit of fact checking first. Earth's energy balance is determined by radiation received from the sun (over a wide spectrum of frequencies) and dissipation through radiation, with the infrared component being the one of...
  39. Dreadnought

    FSD Beta v11.x

    That's not what I was taught and it doesn't make sense. You shall adjust your speed to oncoming traffic and merge when there's a suitable gap. If you wait till the end of the ramp, there may be no room to merge. And while some cars may need the ramp in its entirety to get up to speed, a Tesla...
  40. Dreadnought

    FSD Beta v11.x

    The primary purpose of V11 is to reunify the S/W development and save the effort of maintaining two branches in parallel. The logical next steps would be to monitor V11 highway performance and check for any regressions, followed by a rollout of V11 to the entire fleet (with FSD features simply...
  41. Dreadnought

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Wait a minute -- this story got my spidey sense all tingly. Was the car battery so low that it couldn't power the RFID sensor but it still had enough power left to maintain a cell connection? Or ran his phone out of battery but the guy elected to rather die than break a window, pull the...
  42. Dreadnought

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Agreed. And yet, neither the citizens of London nor New York have been complaining about horse manure in the streets lately. ICE will go the same way. The last model year of Porsche 911 will become collector's items and a few enthusiasts will keep them running for another 50 years. The impact to...
  43. Dreadnought

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    More precisely, it's the German minister of transportation, Volker Wissing, who opposes the ban, and Porsche (VW) is the only manufacturer who pushes for the "E-fuel" exemption. All other German OEMs have realised that ICE is a lost cause. Wissing is a member of the Liberal Democratic Party...
  44. Dreadnought

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Finally caught up with the thread. A few comments to noteworthy posts re Investor Day. Thanks for a great summary! In the quoted paragraph, you're contradicting yourself and perhaps I can help to resolve the conundrum. Being able to fulfill such a humungous demand is the special sauce. Margins...
  45. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    If (or rather, when) Ukraine drives a wedge down to the coast anywhere between Melitopol and Mariupol, this will cut russian supply lines to the west. Crimea itself and any forces in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia need to be supplied via Kerch bridge or through naval communication lines. The Kerch...
  46. Dreadnought

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I am in the camp of those expecting that Investor Day will be about Master Plan Part Troix, i.e. how to scale for a global transition to renewables. So far, I abstained from such speculations but @wdolson wrote in a post in the Russia/Ukraine thread [emphasis mine]: My immediate reaction was...
  47. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    It takes six months in peace time with a healthy work / life balance and possibly bigger classes. The ongoing Leo 2 training in Germany will complete after only 5 weeks but I have no doubt that when the Ukrainians will return to the front line, their level of education will be no less than of...
  48. Dreadnought

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Giga Berlin was at 3000 cars per week already in late December. They started a 3rd shift in January and should be trending towards 4.500 / wk or approximately 45k in Q1, assuming a linear ramp of the 3rd shift throughout the quarter and 12 weeks of production. There was a report of a one-week...
  49. Dreadnought

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I cannot comment on the Teslascope's trustworthyness in general but my (EU) car is installing 2023.2.12 as I'm writing. So, they got at least this bit right.
  50. Dreadnought

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/leaked-document-reveals-alleged-kremlin-plan-to-take-over-belarus-by-2030 Also reported by German media. The plans as such hardly come as a surprise.