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  1. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm one of those folks (I've seen several others just on this forum as well). We called Tesla this week. They thought we'd get a VIN in about 2 weeks and delivery a few days later. I'm guessing the production cutover isn't all that simple. But if the latency is half a quarter, or so, it's not...
  2. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    OT: This was my exact experience over 6 years ago. Had a 911 4S bought in 2009 (yeah, I know, not a muscle car), loved it. Ordered a MS in 2011(ish). Was delivered the MS in early Jan 2013 (it is technically a 2012 since they ran it up onto a truck on 12/31 ;) During that time, Elon claimed...
  3. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It seems like they will well exceed the 5K/week M3 by shifting demand to the SR+ (blending in a much higher number of lower capacity packs). This makes sense to me and I like the move, maximizing M3 units produced given the constraining variable of cell production.I think this is going to be a...
  4. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Some of the drop-off in S/X sales was due to people like me waiting for FSD and minor refresh. They also seem to be having some difficulties making this running change. According to the folks at the Nevada call center, they purged the line of the old build for the S/X on 4/14. I don't know if...
  5. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    And one more for a long range X (re)placed today. Our original order needed to be cancelled out. If fell in a black hole on refresh day. During the intervening period, we were told they couldn't provide a production start date (even after the 72 hour period). The estimate we got was a bit weird...
  6. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Agree with this completely. As a practical matter, I've heard nothing to suggest that they've let go of their front-end design team for HW3. I'm sure it would be news if they did. With HW3 in production, there is some work to do on the back-end (product engineering, apps, ...), but the system...
  7. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I have just the one anecdote that I posted earlier. Our small solar supplier was able to place a new order for 12 Powerwalls and receive them 30 days later (both events in Q1). This is scant information, but it suggests at least the possibility that they were able to move through some, if not...
  8. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think so. We called Tesla sales on Monday inquiring about this. We described the configuration to the sales person. She said that nothing like that existed in inventory and would be newly manufactured. She then confirmed that it would be manufactured with the 'FSD computer'. She was helpful...
  9. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Noob anecdote time .. My wife called our solar installer today to brainstorm over the best way to add more panels to our current installation and possibly some more storage as well. As background, we got our Powerwalls maybe 9 months ago from a reseller, but the solar was just added within the...
  10. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Probably. But I've been wondering about this for a week or two. I've spent too much time cobbling together bits of data to come up with a decent bottom-up estimate of Q1 production. In doing so, I adjust my assumptions to try to account for my bias as a Tesla bull. So no matter what I do, I...
  11. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    From this article: Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, January 30th. The electric vehicle producer reported $1.93 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $1.00 by $0.93. The company had revenue of $7.23...
  12. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Agree. But that makes the splitting of the model even harder to take. Rapid (low-latency) inference requirements are precisely what make splitting the model across GPUs problematic. It can be done, but I feel it is an engineering choice that Tesla would have been unlikely to make, even if they...
  13. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Respectfully, I don't think that is a very practical option for Tesla and therefore not a good comparison. When we're training/testing large models at work, we go to great lengths to avoid splitting the models between GPUs. It can absolutely be done, but it's inefficient, even in a...
  14. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    THIS! They have all the growth they can handle now. I see this short thesis all the time. It goes something like this: 1. Tesla is a high growth company. 2. High growth companies need to raise capital to keep their parabolic growth going. 3. Failure to do so, results in much lower growth, so...
  15. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I agree completely. I thought I could circumvent that problem by using FCs rule of .85 * VIN registration by simply applying it for North America registrations, then add estimates from the ship tracking spreadsheet to come up with a decent guess. But that ends up being way too bullish. Here's...
  16. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    TL;DR: 1. This is likely a wash (or close) from a COGS/GM perspective 2. It adds more to the R&D line than it could possibly save with any small cost advantages purchasing directly from a foundry. 3. The above won't matter because HW3 will enable incredibly valuable functionality. You are...
  17. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yep. When I watched the reveal, I was underwhelmed. My tastes are similar to those described above. But the more I look at it (online, of course), the more I like it. Especially the profile. It's grown on my wife, too. Sadly, that ain't gonna save me from getting her the much more expensive...
  18. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm sure Nvidia won't be giving them any money back. They (Nvidia) were likely upset to lose the design win at Tesla. But it's impossible for to compete with a bespoke NN processor designed by the OEM. So it's sunk cost. Also, it's really unlikely that the boards containing the Nvidia...
  19. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    8-8 ships went to Europe and China - do you agree that this probably suggest that the production output was split roughly 50%/50%? I suspect it's a little more lopsided than that. Looking at the source data from the ship tracker, the 8 ships bound for China spent an average of 2.12 days in...