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Traded in my 2018 M3 today to a 2023 MS to allow for the Q3 FSD transfer window. ("FSDb will be available after a future SW update." Ouch! I knew that, but wow, how long will that be?) At any rate, my reason for posting on the investor thread is simply a Peter Lynch-style foot traffic...

This. Providing daily transparency would overwhelm the prognosticaters, naysayers, analysts, axe-to-grinders, etc. There would be an initial feeding frenzy and then a gradual die-down to silence, nothing else to say, because the data would say it all. Or at least I would hope so. Nominate for...

I have to agree. In one sense ARK's Monte Carlo simulations are sophisticated, but the inputs are guesses that in my opinion do not get at the fundamental drivers of value creation and resultant share price. It reminds me a bit of the apocryphal story of judging the length of the Emperor of...

I nominate this as a post of particular merit. It is a post full of good information. It also is way off topic and while along with its prior parallel post is not being deleted - No. It will not enter the PPM Thread.

Kudos to Gigapress for Elon picking up (actually exceeding) on his "2nd place with a telescope" line.

'Twas the night before AI day, and all through the house, not an option was trading, not even by mouse Deep learning was hung by the demos with care, while we hoped for marvels Elon soon would lay bare. Spoiler alert: A contrarian take on Optimus. For economic, rather than technical reasons...

I would like to nominate this as a post of particular merit, though I don't know the formal process. It's a specific and concrete story of highly variable stock price over a multi-year period, a price that fails to reflect the steady and objective growth in underlying value.

This. I spend a fair amount of time selecting, investing in, and mentoring startups. Those who receive too much money I call the “victims of philanthropy,” borrowing a phrase from the historian Daniel Boorstin.

QED (quod erat demonstrandum) FTFY. Still agree with the sentiment of this impeccable logic.

I think those of us, myself included, that are hopeful about FSD need to watch our own positive biases. Namely, while it could be any of these meanings, the first one ("a sign it's done") doesn't line up with the current state of development, even given a generous extrapolation. Note also that...

https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/853/elon-musk-on-tesla-fsd-beta-10-13-the-3am-oil-is-being-burned-to-get-this-out

Yes. 2018 M3, safety score has been 95+ for months. Came in last night at 97. Surprised at just how much it can do. But at a relaxing drive it is not (yet).

I have not seen anything public from Tesla. There is one post by frequent contributor elasalle of one driver’s detailed experience, of 6,000+ miles driven on versions from 10.3 up thru 10.9. #321,857 in perpetual investor thread (sorry, can’t seem to figure out how get the link to the post to...

Agree with the point here. But wouldn’t that be 6 orders of magnitude, not 7?

this. Andy is spot on. The key is to be "financially viable." Once that occurs, a virtuous cycle begins. Namely, a self-reinforcing effect that makes more resources (including capital, mind share, general brand recognition, user base and other network effects) available to improve on the...

let's be realistic. as interesting as it is to talk about I^2*R of high voltage lines (being sure to add that it works for copper OR aluminum), he does not do all that well staying on point in these calls. He obviously delivers for shareholders where it matters, but could stand to improve in...

Later than many of us were hoping, perhaps unrealistically.

Don't think this has been posted yet. https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/04/who-will-win-the-self-driving-race-here-are-8-possibilities/ Obviously any ranking like this is inherently controversial, and many on this forum feel Tim Lee has an anti-tesla bias. That said, I think the article's...

done. thanks.

Well, I love his technical background, but I actually cringe a little bit each time he says that for a small technical reason. The classic S-curve is a solution to the logistic growth DEQ, which, on inspection of its symmetry, starts off exponential, then linear, then turns inverted...

Latter-day Saint members. And no offense taken:)

I requested the upgrade myself a couple of months ago, and they performed it the next week. Springfield service center.

Yes. This is within my own neighborhood. At two different T intersections. No stop sign. I infer map-based given that the warning begins 600 ft before and there doesn’t seem to be any way to infer from vision only that far away. repeated on two separate days. Also, in other settings when...

Based on my two days of testing, after tap confirming a green light, another tap is requested and required if the light subsequently turns yellow. That second tap is overridden if light subsequently turns red. Then the car must come to a full stop before a tap allows you to proceed. this is...

wiring up something.

I agree with much of the sentiment in your post. However, I draw a slightly different conclusion. To sum up, markets are not efficient (my uchicago economist son would be horrified to hear me say that) However, it is this very inefficiency that allows one to purchase undervalued stocks, give...

OT but it is the weekend: as I understand it, interestingly enough, French was never the lingua franca referred to in the phrase's original meaning. Rather, it was a kind of pidgin Italian[1]. This is sometimes confused in part because much later (after lingua franca came to have a generic...

83,105 FTFY

Tesla has rallied 'too far too fast' This article (below), particularly with its title, seems a companion piece to the above, which feels like wishful thinking: How Tesla's risky bet on making cars in China could pay off to wit, it’s hard to see any serious way in which building a factory in...

It’s certainly possible, and a logical argument. I give it a little less weight than I might otherwise, however, because of his comment in the last quarterly earnings call. Namely, that the hire was not as strategic as some of us were assuming, but more of an aqui-hire. YMMV

Have been checking for it to show up in the Tesla map. Looks like it just posted. Listed in my Tesla app, though curiously it does not list the open/total numbers which are typical.

There’s still the (unfortunately now) perennial question about when we’ll see the cross-country autonomous drive

quarterly stats are in for safety. Tesla Vehicle Safety Report again, I'm not entirely pleased with the statistical meaningfulness here, as it certainly does not yet capture apples-to-apples comparisons (all cars vs. new cars, highway vs. all around driving, etc.). but it's something. and I...

very strange. It was up there for a while, but I don't see it either...

three months maybe, six . . .

I lament the fact that FUD and combating FUD has come to as prominent place as it has on this thread. But it unfortunately does seem to have become relevant at this point to an investors roundtable. I try to avoid stepping into the debate online because of its often polarized and vitriolic...

I listened to the interview. The appreciating asset idea doesn't quite seem right. I believe that the cars can become revenue generating assets. But for the car to appreciate in value would imply that you couldn't buy a new Tesla for less, implying that Tesla will be continually raising the...

Just finished first long-distance trip with no confirm lane-changing (2019.8.5) (see here for writeup). My reason for posting on investor thread is simply this observation: Tesla is going to sell a lot of cars because of its progress toward self-driving. I often read criticisms of Tesla's...

Just completed two four hour drives on 19.8.5, from Northern NJ to Annapolis, MD, and then the return. Overall impression: very solid. A couple of notes: 1) Lane changes are smoother, and I have increased confidence in system's ability to change lanes safely. 2) For first time, I tried...

what does the timing of a midnight press release say about when to expect the quarterly P&D announcement, and whether it is BTE or not?

I am going to get it. Purchased EAP with car on 12-20-2018, with the expectation it would be $5k for FSD later. I recognize I might feel quite differently if I was in the October 2016 "3 months maybe, 6 months definitely" cohort. But as a recent purchaser, $2K seems more than reasonable to...

Just was at rockaway, which was working fine, so thought I’d swing by Parsippany, just to see if lightning struck twice. It didn’t. Covers still on

Well, it’s definitely up I’m charging now and there are 3 others here as well.

This video clip might shed some light here. It contains within it a video clip from an investor conference where the a maxwell officer (CFO?) is speaking from about 3:50-9 minute mark. In particular he indicates that they have had a trial underway with a major OEM EV company. Also indicates...

You mention the wall connector install... Who’d you use for an electrician for the circuit, if I might ask? I’m down in Morristown and could use a recommendation.

I know we're heading to the edge of being OT, but as a one-time physicist, it's funny that you should conjecture about a connection between the second law and GR. The second law in its current formulation doesn't really have anything to do with GR, AFAIK. However, data-starved theorists can't...

Agreed. In addition to the production rates on 3 (and X and S numbers), this is my pick for what will start surprising to the upside during Q3. However, note that we mean not 1 gigawatt per hour (the rate of change of power output), but rather 1 gigawatt-hour ( a unit of measure of energy storage)

the OP wrote 'He said this week on Twitter that Germany is currently the “leading choice” for the European factory.' But that is not what he said. Rather, he said it was "a leading choice," and there is a world of difference. A leading choice is a politically astute statement, as it suggests...

I read the doc. Thanks. There's a full vision there. I give them credit for that. I also think they are showing a decent hand when it comes to autonomous vehicles. But I think you have zeroed right in on the issue. Billions in buy backs? That happens when execs can't think of a better way...