‘23 tax credit, will Tesla offer discounts in ‘22?

[bayareaever]

I ordered MYLR in August with an early ‘23 EDD, in anticipation of tax credit. Soon after, the EDD changed to late November to December. I’m not surprised since they are aiming for a ‘blowout’ q4 and especially since I’m close to Fremont.

My income is well under the tax credit limit and I assume/hope that MY will actually qualify for credit (my price is just under $80k). There is no way I’m taking delivery before the new year unless I’m offered a $7500 discount, and I suspect many others are in the same situation. I was told (in writing) that I can postpone delivery until my original EDD, so I’m not worried about being auto-cancelled.

Obviously, supply/demand in NA will dictate whether Tesla would consider such a discount. All I see in new local inventory is MYP so that would indicate plenty of demand for current supply. Maybe other markets have MYLR inventory? Maybe they are just exporting lots to Canada? Anyone have more insight?

 

[cgell]

I don’t see them lowering prices at this point. Especially with the credit coming up.

 

[bayareaever]

I agree they won’t lower prices anytime soon but offering tax credit discounts to certain individuals seems possible if they need to move inventory. I know it’s against their policy, but they’ve made similar moves at eoq before. Especially q4, which is always the biggest.

US MY demand until 1/1/23 has got to be quite affected at this point because of the tax credit. Meanwhile, supply is up but to what degree- I don’t know.

 

[uicandrew]

as a policy, tesla does not offer discounts. unless it is a demo car, etc. it was once explained as "you had better be prepared to explain to the next person why someone else got a discount and they didn't"

But we’ll see what happens. I’d be happy to accept a discount to take a late 2022 delivery.

 

[bayareaever]

as a policy, tesla does not offer discounts. unless it is a demo car, etc. it was once explained as "you had better be prepared to explain to the next person why someone else got a discount and they didn't"

But we’ll see what happens. I’d be happy to accept a discount to take a late 2022 delivery.

Agreed, when they’ve offered discounts before (I don’t remember all the details) it was a potential PR problem, but with the volume of deliveries nowadays it would probably be easier to do ‘under the radar’.

As an investor, I hope they don’t have to resort to it. Given the circumstances though, if there are a lot of customers in my situation and if there are lots of MY to deliver in q4, I can see it creating a ~one month demand problem. What customer would take delivery now if they can receive the tax credit next month??

The other option Tesla has Is threatening to cancel orders, which I know they’ve been doing for awhile now. Like I said, I’m not personally concerned about that, but with older orders, I can see it happening.

 

[dm33]

Agreed, when they’ve offered discounts before (I don’t remember all the details) it was a potential PR problem, but with the volume of deliveries nowadays it would probably be easier to do ‘under the radar’.

As an investor, I hope they don’t have to resort to it. Given the circumstances though, if there are a lot of customers in my situation and if there are lots of MY to deliver in q4, I can see it creating a ~one month demand problem. What customer would take delivery now if they can receive the tax credit next month??

The other option Tesla has Is threatening to cancel orders, which I know they’ve been doing for awhile now. Like I said, I’m not personally concerned about that, but with older orders, I can see it happening.

Agreed.
Sadly I was in the boat of having an EDD in December that got moved up. Despite my best efforts, tesla just cancelled my order. I’m disappointed in how callous they are. I had expected they’d figure out some way to deal with the tax credit at end of year. Extra deposit. Parking fee. But they didn’t try at all. Overly arrogant assuming demand will always be there.

 

[uicandrew]

Agreed.
Sadly I was in the boat of having an EDD in December that got moved up. Despite my best efforts, tesla just cancelled my order. I’m disappointed in how callous they are. I had expected they’d figure out some way to deal with the tax credit at end of year. Extra deposit. Parking fee. But they didn’t try at all. Overly arrogant assuming demand will always be there.

When did you place your order initially? Before the recent price hike?

 

[dm33]

When did you place your order initially? Before the recent price hike?

March order. Significantly below current price. But if full tax credit comes along it’s about the same price.
Ordering right now still says delivery in December, almost immediate delivery.
Quite a difference from any other time. I’ve never seen zero wait for MY order. Down from my 8 month wait.
Hard to tell how next year will sort out with potential recession, increased interest rates. Supply improvement. I could see price drop due to demand supply changes or price increase due to tax credit.
I’m giving fresh look at other options.

 

[uicandrew]

March order. Significantly below current price. But if full tax credit comes along it’s about the same price.
Ordering right now still says delivery in December, almost immediate delivery.
Quite a difference from any other time. I’ve never seen zero wait for MY order. Down from my 8 month wait.
Hard to tell how next year will sort out with potential recession, increased interest rates. Supply improvement. I could see price drop due to demand supply changes or price increase due to tax credit.
I’m giving fresh look at other options.

Understood. For me, I ordered in early 9/2022 and it’s anticipating that delivery is in December, too.

Probably one of the few times when a customer doesn’t want to take delivery of a backordered product.

With the ramp-up at Austin, I didn’t think they’d deliver so quickly.

Did you find out if your model Y that was assigned to you had matrix headlights (rare for LR) or ultrasonic sensors? Those would be worth a good amount to me.

 

[dm33]

Understood. For me, I ordered in early 9/2022 and it’s anticipating that delivery is in December, too.

Probably one of the few times when a customer doesn’t want to take delivery of a backordered product.

With the ramp-up at Austin, I didn’t think they’d deliver so quickly.

Did you find out if your model Y that was assigned to you had matrix headlights (rare for LR) or ultrasonic sensors? Those would be worth a good amount to me.

I don’t know about matrix headlights.
They did want me to specifically acknowledge and accept that ultrasonic sensors had been removed from the ordered vehicle. I don’t see removal of the sensors as a good thing. Removed function expected in most cars mid priced and up.

 

[uicandrew]

I agree. I want the ultrasonic sensors… especially for my occasional city driving/parallel parking.

But I do a lot more of county road driving at night and my nemesis is deer so matrix is very important to me (not as useful for city driving).

 

[bayareaever]

March order. Significantly below current price. But if full tax credit comes along it’s about the same price.
Ordering right now still says delivery in December, almost immediate delivery.
Quite a difference from any other time. I’ve never seen zero wait for MY order. Down from my 8 month wait.
Hard to tell how next year will sort out with potential recession, increased interest rates. Supply improvement. I could see price drop due to demand supply changes or price increase due to tax credit.
I’m giving fresh look at other options.

Sorry to hear you got cancelled. My original EDD was March-June ‘23 and I got in writing from store rep at the time that I can postpone until then. My price (not counting $3k fsd increase) is same as current.

As far as demand once tax credit is in effect, I think it’s going to be very strong. We still don’t know if all MY will qualify or if only those builds under $80k. Does anyone have more details on this?

As for alternatives, I personally wouldn’t consider any because I can’t stand car dealers, despite Tesla’s shenanigans- at least we know roughly what to expect. As a current MX owner, the car is amazing and service wait times have also notably improved lately.

I am concerned about losing parking sensors, but hopefully this will be sorted out soon.

 

[Pinkaholic]

I’d contact them because I thought the same about the EDD and being able to place a hold until my original EDD (April ‘23)

but the rep told me my EDD was Nov-Feb so they’d only place a hold until the earliest EDD of my order which was November.

 

[bayareaever]

I’d contact them because I thought the same about the EDD and being able to place a hold until my original EDD (April ‘23)

but the rep told me my EDD was Nov-Feb so they’d only place a hold until the earliest EDD of my order which was November.

My original EDD started in January and the store rep put it in writing that I could delay until then. She said then that it was unlikely to get early delivery- she obviously didn’t know what I suspected would happen with the q4 rush/pre-tax credit affect. If they try to push back against what was put in writing, I will not be a happy customer.

 

[dm33]

My original EDD started in January and the store rep put it in writing that I could delay until then. She said then that it was unlikely to get early delivery- she obviously didn’t know what I suspected would happen with the q4 rush/pre-tax credit affect. If they try to push back against what was put in writing, I will not be a happy customer.

I don’t get the impression they care about happy customers. Q4 numbers are more important.

 

[bayareaever]

I don’t get the impression they care about happy customers. Q4 numbers are more important.

I hear you. In my experience, when you have something in writing from them, they will honor it, possibly because they legally have to.

This pre-tax credit/oversupply eoq rush might be a real problem for them or possibly not- obviously no one here knows. I don’t see any MYLR new supply locally, so that’s a good sign. Factoring in the income limits and the fact that the feds haven’t even officially qualified MY for tax credit should help too.

 

[bayareaever]

Update, my order has been put on hold until January ‘23. I think this is because the original EDD started then, otherwise they presumably wouldn’t have been willing.

 

[jsmay311]

Is there good reason to think the Model Y will even qualify for the full $7500 credit in 2023 anyway?

I assume it would probably qualify for the half ($3750) that is dependent the battery pack having a minimum 50% of the value of its components assembled or manufactured in North America.

But I’d be surprised if it qualifies for the other half that is dependent on 40% of the battery’s “critical minerals” being extracted or processed in a country that has a free trade agreement with the US.

I don’t believe Tesla has publicly stated if they’ll meet the minerals requirements, but I believe GM has stated it will take them a few years to meet it. I assume Tesla would be in a similar boat.

 

[dm33]

Is there good reason to think the Model Y will even qualify for the full $7500 credit in 2023 anyway?

I assume it would probably qualify for the half ($3750) that is dependent the battery pack having a minimum 50% of the value of its components assembled or manufactured in North America.

But I’d be surprised if it qualifies for the other half that is dependent on 40% of the battery’s “critical minerals” being extracted or processed in a country that has a free trade agreement with the US.

I don’t believe Tesla has publicly stated if they’ll meet the minerals requirements, but I believe GM has stated it will take them a few years to meet it. I assume Tesla would be in a similar boat.

Elon had posted staring tesla would qualify for the full rebate.

 

[jsmay311]

Elon had posted staring tesla would qualify for the full rebate.

Got a link? I couldn’t find anything.

The closest I could find was a quote in the article linked below, but it’s a vague and speculative comment, and certainly doesn’t definitively state that Teslas will get the full credit in 2023:

“Tesla allows the public to vote on questions its executives should answer. The most highly voted question asked about Tesla's ability to meet thresholds for the electric vehicle tax credits in 2023, 2024 and 2025.

Tesla did not address specific years, but Musk said that ‘at a high level I'll say we do expect to fully meet the IRA's requirements.’ "

Elon Musk didn't want EV tax credits. Now Tesla is warming up to them

Tesla buyers may be able to take advantage of new federal tax credits for electric vehicles next year, the automaker's executives said Wednesday. The credits can be as large as $7,500 for new vehicles and $4,000 for used vehicles.

amp.cnn.com