“Why I’m ditching my model 3 reservation” article

[McRat]

The one thing that really freaks me out is reliability. Whether I have the car in march or June I don't really care. I fear there is going to be temptation for Tesla to push something that is not ready.

It's part of the plan. Walking is good for the environment also!

Seriously, I'd worry about quality if quality is a problem. We won't know that this year.

 

[internalaudit]

I wrote a similar essay concerning why I'm not getting an iPhone X.

You will find the article on www.wastedbandwidth.org, but the here is a cut and paste of the article:



Seriously, nothing in there is new concerning the downside to ordering a Model 3.

But what he forgot is very telling.

1) He compares it to a Nissan Leaf. Nope. Anyone who wants a Leaf already has one. There is not a waiting list.
2) The cheapest RWD performance EV (sub 6 sec) is $75,200. Cars like the Leaf, i3, Bolt, etc, might be cheaper, but performance and range is lower.
3) Even without the Federal Credit, $36,000 is still cheap for a 200+ mile EV with brisk performance.
4) The Model 3 LR initial release cars are a similar bargain. $50k for 300+ miles, even better performance, and more luxury features. Can you match it at $57,500? No.

All good but too bad it isn't available.

 

[internalaudit]

IN MY OPINION, Tesla would like to see the tax credit go away. This would give them a huge $7,500 advantage over those newcomers into the EV market. Nissan Leaf and GM Bolt are not their competition. Their competition is BMW, Audi, and Porsche concept EVs. If Tesla uses up their EV tax credit allotment in the next 12 to 18 months, the other makers would still have as much as a $7,500 advantage for years to come if the credit remains in place. And in reality, the Federal Tax Credit has achieved its desired results, - acceptance of the EV concept as a mainstream means of personal transportation. To encourage further adoption of the EV concept, the Feds could eliminate the EV tax credit and tax ICE cars a surcharge (maybe $7,500 each) for cleaning up the environment as a result of their pollution. i'm sure this will elicit some "disagrees" but it is worth it!

I don't hit the disagree button but all other high-end car makers are profitable so the lost of the credit will really hit Tesla the hardest.

They can lose money on their BEV venture and it won't sink their ships.

Losing the credit means lowering MSRP by at least a fraction of that credit if somehow consumers are price sensitive, many of potential M3 buyers are.

Tesla is safe for now as nothing comes close to its offering but the Bolt but it may be a very different ball game in 2020, just a little over two years from now.

I am sure many (except the die hard fans) here would be willing to defect if there are alternative similarly priced BEVs but for now our reservations are intact as it's but a grand and competition is not here yet.

 

[MotoEvCA]

I wrote a similar essay concerning why I'm not getting an iPhone X.

You will find the article on www.wastedbandwidth.org, but the here is a cut and paste of the article:

Seriously, nothing in there is new concerning the downside to ordering a Model 3.

But what he forgot is very telling.

1) He compares it to a Nissan Leaf. Nope. Anyone who wants a Leaf already has one. There is not a waiting list.
2) The cheapest RWD performance EV (sub 6 sec) is $75,200. Cars like the Leaf, i3, Bolt, etc, might be cheaper, but performance and range is lower.
3) Even without the Federal Credit, $36,000 is still cheap for a 200+ mile EV with brisk performance.
4) The Model 3 LR initial release cars are a similar bargain. $50k for 300+ miles, even better performance, and more luxury features. Can you match it at $57,500? No.

I think the 2018 Leaf will sway many buyers from their Tesla M3 orders once reality sets in. If M3 leases are non-existent or higher than expected people will seek other options

If the $35K car becomes $45K in reality people will seek other options

If M3 production problems gain greater attention and Leaf 2.0 is available for purchase and gets great reviews I think more will move on.

I simply believe the stated production volumes will not be met and people will grow tired of waiting for a car built to their specifications.

Come on Tesla and bring the FSD to market sooner than later

 

[T34ME]

I think the 2018 Leaf will sway many buyers from their Tesla M3 orders once reality sets in. If M3 leases are non-existent or higher than expected people will seek other options

If the $35K car becomes $45K in reality people will seek other options

If M3 production problems gain greater attention and Leaf 2.0 is available for purchase and gets great reviews I think more will move on.

I simply believe the stated production volumes will not be met and people will grow tired of waiting for a car built to their specifications.

Come on Tesla and bring the FSD to market sooner than later

I counted three "if"s in your post. If "ifs" and "buts" were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas.

 

[internalaudit]

I think the 2018 Leaf will sway many buyers from their Tesla M3 orders once reality sets in. If M3 leases are non-existent or higher than expected people will seek other options

If the $35K car becomes $45K in reality people will seek other options

If M3 production problems gain greater attention and Leaf 2.0 is available for purchase and gets great reviews I think more will move on.

I simply believe the stated production volumes will not be met and people will grow tired of waiting for a car built to their specifications.

Come on Tesla and bring the FSD to market sooner than later

Financing and lease rates are important. We've grown accustomed to 0% to at most 1.99% interest rates that having to pay upwards of 4% may turn people off such as myself. I don't mind putting a significant down payment to get Tesla to approve me for a sweeter auto loan rate (maybe in the 2-2.5% region) because this is in effect a small subsidy for all of us paying MSRP. Banks here in Canada run an oligopoly (haven't check credit unions but their source of funding isn't going to be as low) and lowest auto loans even for people with good credit history is at least 5%. I'm not willing to pay $8k or more of interest over four years on a $50k USD car. Again, others are very affluent but we're just middle class and I'm not ashamed to admit that.

I don't mind financing $13k more (LR + AWD) but people who are more price-sensitive that I am may get turned off by the lack of TACC unless they opt for the EAP. Also the lack of physical controls may turn some people off once more people get to experience it especially those households where a couple of members will be taking turns to drive the M3 --> the pain of having to adjust everything on screen. I guess PUP will alleviate that pain of adjusting the seat, side mirror and steering wheel positions but that's to the tune of another $5k.

At the earliest, only the 60 kWh 225 mile Leaf if it comes with thermal management system or Nissan's upcoming BEV can possibly sway me. The 40 kWh is too small for our weekly driving patterns(work-related) during winter time. But there are other vehicles coming -- the Bolt-based Buick, Electric Mini, Kia Ioniq with a bigger battery and a few other SUVs. They may not be as fun as a M3 but what fun is a car that isn't available?

Until competition shows up, many of us will not grow tired of waiting but once we can avail of another BEV with a reasonable 1-6 month waiting period, I think a significant number of people may actually defect. It depends how the initial quality of the M3 will be and how good warranty work/servicing experiences will be for the first few batches of owners.

 

[McRat]

I think the 2018 Leaf will sway many buyers from their Tesla M3 orders once reality sets in. If M3 leases are non-existent or higher than expected people will seek other options

If the $35K car becomes $45K in reality people will seek other options

If M3 production problems gain greater attention and Leaf 2.0 is available for purchase and gets great reviews I think more will move on.

I simply believe the stated production volumes will not be met and people will grow tired of waiting for a car built to their specifications.

Come on Tesla and bring the FSD to market sooner than later

The 2018 Leaf is quite an improvement, however, based on initial reviews:
40 kWh battery (EPA range, unknown, most likely 150-170 mi Combined)
145 HP
8.5 sec to 62mph.
FWD
Vague handling
$35,000
Poor 'fly-over-state' infrastructure.

If you're going to do that, spend $2k more:
60 kWh battery, EPA 238 mi
200 HP
6.3 seconds to 60 mph
FWD
Sport tuned suspension
$37,495 includes destination.
Poor 'fly-over-state' infrastructure.

Or just wait for the Model 3.

50? kWh battery, EPA 220 mi
250? HP
5.6 seconds to 60 mph
RWD
Sport tuned suspension
$36,000 includes destination.
Best national charging infrastructure.

At this point, the Leaf is still chasing the competition. US sales show this.
They upped the specs, but not enough to keep up.

 

[run-the-joules]

Financing and lease rates are important. We've grown accustomed to 0% to at most 1.99% interest rates that having to pay upwards of 4% may turn people off such as myself. I don't mind putting a significant down payment to get Tesla to approve me for a sweeter auto loan rate (maybe in the 2-2.5% region) because this is in effect a small subsidy for all of us paying MSRP. Banks here in Canada run an oligopoly (haven't check credit unions but their source of funding isn't going to be as low) and lowest auto loans even for people with good credit history is at least 5%. I'm not willing to pay $8k or more of interest over four years on a $50k USD car. Again, others are very affluent but we're just middle class and I'm not ashamed to admit that.

I'd be absolutely shocked if Tesla subsidizes loans on the Model 3. They do it on the S & X to drive sales, and the Model 3 will do just fine without that. It'd purely be pissing away money.

 

[internalaudit]

What is 1% subsidy a year on an auto loan with a significant down payment along with a declining balance costing Tesla anyway? Maybe not in the first year or two but who knows when other BEVs start offering 0-1.99% financing over 84 months, lol. Sure, M3 will do fine without competition but it would be interesting to know when it does meet some formidable ones.

Also, why would Tesla partner with two major banks in Canada (or a couple of FI's in the States)? I doubt the banks are subsidizing the loans so it must be Tesla doing it. The banks are not getting a volume business.

I sure am not willing to pay more than 3% 4-year loan on a entry-level to luxury level vehicle. Not when bond yields and bank borrowing rates are still pretty low. Yes I am willing with a >$25k vehicle but not for anything over $45k. It's like pissing gas money away, I might as well get a cheaper, reliable and fun enough ICEV to drive. I'm more practical and want a BEV because it theoretically should cost less to run and maintain. If I offer to put down a decent down payment and am still not approved for a Tesla financing, I'll be looking elsewhere. For now, I play the waiting game.

 

[ElecFan]

What is 1% subsidy a year on an auto loan with a significant down payment along with a declining balance costing Tesla anyway? Maybe not in the first year or two but who knows when other BEVs start offering 0-1.99% financing over 84 months, lol. Sure, M3 will do fine without competition but it would be interesting to know when it does meet some formidable ones.

I'd love to see this competition. But there's no one in sight. Legacy carmakers are strangely silent on BEV's in Model 3 car-range. Why? See, this video.

 

[internalaudit]

I'd love to see this competition. But there's no one in sight. Legacy carmakers are strangely silent on BEV's in Model 3 car-range. Why? See, this video.

One of the German members here on TMC is right.

It has everything to do with the unionized workforce (fewer work hours required for BEVs), high cost of batteries (subject to some technological advancement in the near future like solid state batteries, zinc air or others). If battery costs were halved, car makers can easily replace them, perhaps by sliding the old one out and new one in and that will allay most of our fears on long-term battery degradation. As long as battery profit< engine + transmission profit, of course car makers will pursue the ICEV route. Warranty on the ICEV is short while warranty on battery and drive motor units can be as long as eight years.

Perhaps there is also the issue with dealership revenues but then again, even BEVs have to be serviced and with Tesla charging $800-1,000 for annual inspections, it seems dealerships from legacy car makers can survive. I don't even pay $1,000 a year on my Honda Accord and RAV4.

You are right no one has a similar offering for now but that won't be the case when battery costs come down. Even the SCN advantage is dwindling with the German consortium building them in Europe and with Shell offering them at gas stations. It will just be a matter of time unless Tesla is able to capture our loyalty somehow and spread goodwill.

China is also key. If it forces car makers to make BEVs to sell there, then eventually legacy car makers will attain the economies of scale producing BEVs because R&D, facilities, etc. will have already been sunk costs for them. Thank you China, thank you Tesla.

 

[T34ME]

I sure am not willing to pay more than 3% 4-year loan on a entry-level to luxury level vehicle. Not when bond yields and bank borrowing rates are still pretty low. Yes I am willing with a >$25k vehicle but not for anything over $45k. It's like pissing gas money away, I might as well get a cheaper, reliable and fun enough ICEV to drive. I'm more practical and want a BEV because it theoretically should cost less to run and maintain. If I offer to put down a decent down payment and am still not approved for a Tesla financing, I'll be looking elsewhere. For now, I play the waiting game.

@internalaudit you are obviously a dollars and cents kind of person. Have you figured in the cost of "pissing your money away" on personal and national health care costs, rebuilding public infrastructure and private property due to climatic damage, and financially supporting a dying fossil fuel industry because you choose to drive a "cheaper, reliable, and fun enough ICEV to drive"? You will choose to do this to save a couple of hundred dollars a year on a lease as opposed to spending $1,000s a year on costs that come directly out of your pocket? Time for an internal audit.

 

[internalaudit]

@internalaudit you are obviously a dollars and cents kind of person. Have you figured in the cost of "pissing your money away" on personal and national health care costs, rebuilding public infrastructure and private property due to climatic damage, and financially supporting a dying fossil fuel industry because you choose to drive a "cheaper, reliable, and fun enough ICEV to drive"? You will choose to do this to save a couple of hundred dollars a year on a lease as opposed to spending $1,000s a year on costs that come directly out of your pocket? Time for an internal audit.

As long as I don't come out with a self-righteous and condescending tone such as yours, I'm sure a lot more people will respect me than they will respect you. Is that all you care about, tailpipe emissions? If you don't even drive a BEV right now, you are just being a hypocrite.

So you will in the future drive a Tesla. I respect my colleagues, I don't backstab. I give up my seat to elders and handicaps when riding public transport, keep doors open when there's someone right behind me in public buildings, I recycle properly, don't spread rumors, don't idle my vehicle when waiting for someone.

You are telling me you are a much better individual because you will drive a Tesla? Who are you kidding?

Good luck with you TSLA shares. Keep pumping. Time for you to visit your psychologist.

 

[Phrixotrichus]

@internalaudit you are obviously a dollars and cents kind of person. Have you figured in the cost of "pissing your money away" on personal and national health care costs, rebuilding public infrastructure and private property due to climatic damage, and financially supporting a dying fossil fuel industry because you choose to drive a "cheaper, reliable, and fun enough ICEV to drive"? You will choose to do this to save a couple of hundred dollars a year on a lease as opposed to spending $1,000s a year on costs that come directly out of your pocket? Time for an internal audit.

Whenever you write something like this I remember this old Southpark Episode...

 

[Hitman007]

I'm going to laugh my burro off when Congress leaves in the Tax Credit, ramp is up to speed, leases are available as soon as the cars go public, and $TSLA goes north of $500 per share. He has cancelled his reservation with no way to get it back. He wants a Leaf with its battery problems? My daughter has a 500e which is okay to get back and forth to work and the grocery store and that is about all. He can't even get the phase out of the tax credit correct. Lame article and a classic example of FUD, and don't bother to troll me with "fanboy" because I admit I am a "complete enthusiast." The model 3 has already changed the automotive world forever and will continue to do so in the future.

$500 per share? I like your sense of humor.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Financing and lease rates are important. We've grown accustomed to 0% to at most 1.99% interest rates that having to pay upwards of 4% may turn people off such as myself. I don't mind putting a significant down payment to get Tesla to approve me for a sweeter auto loan rate (maybe in the 2-2.5% region) because this is in effect a small subsidy for all of us paying MSRP. Banks here in Canada run an oligopoly (haven't check credit unions but their source of funding isn't going to be as low) and lowest auto loans even for people with good credit history is at least 5%. I'm not willing to pay $8k or more of interest over four years on a $50k USD car. Again, others are very affluent but we're just middle class and I'm not ashamed to admit that.

I don't mind financing $13k more (LR + AWD) but people who are more price-sensitive that I am may get turned off by the lack of TACC unless they opt for the EAP. Also the lack of physical controls may turn some people off once more people get to experience it especially those households where a couple of members will be taking turns to drive the M3 --> the pain of having to adjust everything on screen. I guess PUP will alleviate that pain of adjusting the seat, side mirror and steering wheel positions but that's to the tune of another $5k.

At the earliest, only the 60 kWh 225 mile Leaf if it comes with thermal management system or Nissan's upcoming BEV can possibly sway me. The 40 kWh is too small for our weekly driving patterns(work-related) during winter time. But there are other vehicles coming -- the Bolt-based Buick, Electric Mini, Kia Ioniq with a bigger battery and a few other SUVs. They may not be as fun as a M3 but what fun is a car that isn't available?

Until competition shows up, many of us will not grow tired of waiting but once we can avail of another BEV with a reasonable 1-6 month waiting period, I think a significant number of people may actually defect. It depends how the initial quality of the M3 will be and how good warranty work/servicing experiences will be for the first few batches of owners.

Check your local credit union. They will always beat the manufacturer rates.

Dan

 

[run-the-joules]

Check your local credit union. They will always beat the manufacturer rates.

Dan

That's a hell of a big thing to claim.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

That's a hell of a big thing to claim.

Pardon me...let me rephrase. It has never been my experience that any manufacturer's financing or leasing arrangements could beat my credit union. Of course, other's may have different experiences but I would certainly check the local credit union rates before committing to any other source of financing.

Dan

 

[N5329K]

Pardon me...let me rephrase. It has never been my experience that any manufacturer's financing or leasing arrangements could beat my credit union. Of course, other's may have different experiences but I would certainly check the local credit union rates before committing to any other source of financing.

Dan

Same here. When the usual sources are told about what is on offer at the credit union, they say, "Really? I can't beat that."
PenFed is mine.
Robin

 

[T34ME]

As long as I don't come out with a self-righteous and condescending tone such as yours,

Oh but you did, in that post and this post! And you never explained or justified why you will be spending all that extra money on ancillary costs driving ICE.

Is that all you care about, tailpipe emissions? If you don't even drive a BEV right now, you are just being a hypocrite.

Yes, I care about that and certainly much more which is beyond the scope of this forum. And yes, I do, and will forever.

I give up my seat to elders and handicaps when riding public transport, keep doors open when there's someone right behind me in public buildings, I recycle properly, don't spread rumors, don't idle my vehicle when waiting for someone.

I applaud you for that, but not so much for polluting the atmosphere by driving ICE because you can save a couple dollars a day.

Good luck with you TSLA shares. Keep pumping. Time for you to visit your psychologist.

Yes, I do own a few $TSLA shares (have mentioned that several times on TMC) in a buy and hold position because I believe in the company and their philosophy, passion, and world vision. After all, this is a Tesla forum! I don't hold so many shares that I will ever become a 1 per center though.

And yes, I will be visiting my psychologist soon, who is my daughter.

She is a Doctor of Psychology with a PsyD in Clinical Psychology and if you will excuse a father's pride, a darn good one at that. Talked to her on the phone last night and she invited the extended family to her house for Thanksgiving. Oh, and BTW, she feels just has strongly about the environment as I do. She wishes Trudeau was our President as do I.