1 million Teslas by 2020 - what does it take?

[3Victoria]

To hit the truly big numbers, they'll need to use everything they've learned along the way and add a Tesla Camry/Accord to the stable.

EM has said that they will not make a less expensive car than the Model 3. Its life-time cost is actually comparable to a much 'less-expensive' ICE when you take into account cost of fuel and maintenance.

I am not sure what the plan is with Service Centres, but I am sure Tesla is planning for it. The Model 3 should require almost no servicing beyond tires and some fluids, and these don't need a SC.

 

[KD5MDK]

The Model 3 should require almost no servicing beyond tires and some fluids, and these don't need a SC.

Are you anticipating zero defects and operational failures in that calculation?

 

[eye.surgeon]

Exactly. Current service centers have been operating at beyond full capacity in many cases simply dealing with various manufacturing defects and problems that occur with any complex mechanical device. Personally, my tesla has had only a single easily fixed fault in 2 years, fixed by a ranger in my garage, but it's beyond naive to think that hundreds of new service centers won't be necessary for the Model 3 because it doesn't require as much servicing as an ICE vehicle.

 

[neroden]

I think 500K to 1 million Teslas is possible. That's S, X, 3, and Y combined. There will need to be some more battery breakthroughs to get the price low enough to compete with a Camry/Accord.

I strongly believe that the used Tesla Model 3s (which will hit the market mostly in 2020 as leases expire) will be competing with new Camrys and new Corollas.

Electric is just that superior.

 

[neroden]

Is there documentation to this effect? You have inside knowledge?

Setting up a service center requires filing of permits with governments. For a service center, because of the sort of activities conducted there, the permits required typically had to be filed over a year before they actually start operating. Tesla can't speed this up, it's local government speed. And there are people, including some on this forum, who watch these things.

It hasn't been happening.

They could start acquiring sites for service centers and starting a massive buildout tomorrow. If they did, they wouldn't actually open most of them until well after January 2018, probably June.

Or, y'know, they could release good service manuals and let independent auto repair shops take a lot of the pressure off of them. That would actually be one way to massively speed up the deployment. But they don't appear to WANT to, for whatever reason; they've been really stupid and obnoxious about this.

 

[RobStark]

But they don't appear to WANT to, for whatever reason; they've been really stupid and obnoxious about this.

Really? You don't know why?

Elon has said why, like a million times.

He wants Tesla to control the entire customer experience.

Tesla hired Jon McNeill explicitly for this purpose.

 

[neroden]

Really? You don't know why?

Elon has said why, like a million times.

He wants Tesla to control the entire customer experience.

Tesla hired Jon McNeill explicitly for this purpose.

OK. Thanks for the info.

That's completely moronic and if they don't give it up going to ruin Tesla eventually, though probably not in the next few years.

They're going to develop a bad reputation if they keep this up.

We already know they don't have NEARLY enough service centers, and they don't have a nearly large enough geographic distribution, and the individual service centers aren't nearly large enough, and they haven't been able to expand fast enough (and there are no signs of that changing), and despite this very slow expansion the service centers are of inconsistent quality and are giving inconsistent information to customers.

If you're trying to "control the entire customer experience" and you make one of the parts you're controlling (with brainless rigidity) into a BAD experience, you're going to develop a very bad reputation. On the other hand, if you make part of it not your responsibility (by releasing manuals and letting independent shops do work), then the reputational damage doesn't come back to bite you.

 

[James78]

I think that 1.000.000 Teslas in 2020 is a sure thing, especially if they will start working other models, too (X, Y,…). But even with only models S and 3 I think they can make it.

 

[electronhauler]

I don't know about 1 million model 3's, but TSLA must be closing in on 1 million vehicles produced. My guesstimate is 250k MS 600k M3 150k MX. Are there better numbers? Just curious.

 

[Darkfox021]

About 850,000 through Q4 2019.