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"100 Configurations" based options speculation

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by thelastdeadmouse, May 27, 2017.

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  1. DR61

    DR61 Member

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    The hitch could be a bolt-on accessory, rather than a factory configuration. Wiring harness for a trailer could also be a plug-in accessory. That would not be needed for a bike rack or luggage platform.
     
  2. TacC

    TacC Member

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    I think you're right. Great call.

    Selling a 75kWh battery as a 60 probably doesn't work at the Model 3 price point. You achieve the same production efficiency by simply making one battery and selling its full capability. And this also jives with dropping the 60 from the S and X lines because the gap is reinforced. Having a 75 in the S and the 3 would blur the line between them.
     
  3. smak

    smak Member

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    If a certain % of the people who opt for a software limited version of the 75kWh battery later on upgraded (for a higher price), it might make it worth it.

    I have no idea how much more it costs to make a 75 vs a 60, but there is some math there that might say they'd make it up on charging $1000 more for the upgrade at a later date.

    Totally made up numbers here, but if their research said that 1/3 of people would upgrade at a later time, and they only need 25% of people to upgrade to break even, well, there you go.
     
  4. vigge50

    vigge50 Member

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    They said for some time ago that there price was less then $190/kWh so 15 kWh would be less then $2850. Sure, some will probably update later on if it's possible but what if they don't? $2000 extra in production cost per car can get really mush money if you are planing to produce in the numbers that Tesla is talking about.
     
  5. Troy

    Troy Active Member

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    Here is my version:

    Model 3 combinations:
    Roof 2
    Interior 2
    Battery & drive unit & smart air suspension 6
    Premium upgrades package 2
    Premium sound 2
    2*2*6*2*2= 96

    Model 3 Battery & drive unit & smart air suspension:
    1. 55 without smart air suspension
    2. 55D without smart air suspension
    3. 75 without smart air suspension
    4. 75D with smart air suspension
    5. 75D without smart air suspension
    6. P75D with smart air suspension
    I have excluded paint and wheel options because I was trying to reach 1500+ for Model S (because the compare page says 1500+ combinations for the Model S) and excluding those makes the most sense because these two don't affect the hardware during the build process.

    Model S combinations = 2*9*6*2*2*2*2= 1728
    Roof 2
    Interior 9
    Battery & drive unit & smart air suspension 6
    Premium upgrades package 2
    Subzero weather package 2
    Premium sound 2
    Rear facing seats 2

    Smart air suspension is selectable only in the 90 kWk battery. It is included (can't be deselected) in the 100 and not available in the 75. Therefore there are 6 battery & drive unit & smart air suspension combinations in the Model S:
    1. 75 without smart air suspension
    2. 75D without smart air suspension
    3. 90D with smart air suspension
    4. 90D without smart air suspension
    5. 100D with smart air suspension
    6. P100D with smart air suspension
    Also, I'm counting 9 interior options in the Model S because the carbon fiber decor doubles every option except multi-pattern black which does not have carbon fiber decor option.
    1. White with carbon fiber decor
    2. White without carbon fiber decor
    3. Black with carbon fiber decor
    4. Black without carbon fiber decor
    5. Black/light with carbon fiber decor
    6. Black/light without carbon fiber decor
    7. Tan with carbon fiber decor
    8. Tan without carbon fiber decor
    9. Multi-pattern black without carbon fiber decor
     
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  6. kirmac

    kirmac Member

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    I think you are right Troy. Especially excluding paint and wheel options makes sense.

    My guess is that Tow Hitch Option will be added in 6-9 month as a service center upgrade for all model 3.
     
  7. cizUK

    cizUK Member

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    The Compare page says coil suspension for Model 3
    EM has said no Dual Motor at launch
    Therefore I think it will be this -

    3 battery & drive unit (55/60, 75, P75)
    4 interiors (Black Cloth, Black, Tan, White)
    2 Roofs (Metal, Glass)
    PUP
    Subzero
    3*4*2*2*2=96

    Probably too many interiors, but IDK
    Maybe Premium sound will be in PUP?
     
  8. Troy

    Troy Active Member

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    #28 Troy, May 30, 2017
    Last edited: May 30, 2017
    @cizUK. I missed that detail about "Coil Suspension" on the comparison page. Here is my new theory: They will open the design studio without the P75D. Elon said the performance version will have ludicrous mode (source). Therefore it would be odd if it didn't have air suspension. The test ride cars during the reveal event had it.

    (5:59) Motor Trend: "Does it have smart air suspension?"
    (6:02) Dough Field, Tesla VP of Engineering: "Yeah, we expect that to be optional." "This car we're in has it."



    Maybe air suspension is not ready yet which is why the comparison page doesn't mention it and the P75D is delayed so much. We know the 55D/75D starts production around January 2018 (source) and P75D around April 2018 (source). Therefore Tesla might open the design studio without the P75D and without the 75D with air suspension. Initially, they would have these 4 variants:
    1. 55 without smart air suspension
    2. 55D without smart air suspension
    3. 75 without smart air suspension
    4. 75D without smart air suspension
    Here is my revised version:
    Model 3 combinations:
    Roof 2
    Interior 3
    Battery & drive unit 4
    Premium upgrades package 2
    Premium sound 2
    2*3*4*2*2= 96

    It would make sense for Tesla not to add the P75D to the design studio when they open it probably in August this year because they can't deliver those cars until April 2018 anyway. They need to continue selling cars this year. Some of those people who would end up on the P75D waiting list if it had been advertised, might end up buying a Model S instead if there is no mention of the P75D and specs aren't released.
     
  9. cizUK

    cizUK Member

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    @Troy yeah but I don't think the 'D' will be there so that puts it down to 2

    2 Battery
    2 Roof
    3 Interior
    2 PUP
    2 Premium sound
    2 Subzero
    =96
     
  10. Lysol

    Lysol Member

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    I don't see why they would offer different size wheel options. The larger wheel just limits range on the car so it doesn't make any sense...
     
  11. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    It makes sense when you consider it makes the car look sportier and offers greater grip.
     
  12. Mishakim

    Mishakim Member

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    I may be misremembering, but I thought Elon answered a question about choosing to order the D model and waiting, keeping place in line relative to others who order it, in the affirmative. So that would mean it needs to be in the configurator at launch. So I agree with Troy's analysis. I suspect subzero will be part of PUP, or split -- seats (maybe just front) with base, heated glass and nozzles (and maybe rear seats) with PUP

    I'd say either wheels aren't counted in the <100 configs, or they're tied to other features, most obviously P or D drivetrains.
     
  13. pkalhan

    pkalhan Member

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    I like this thread, very nice guesses from all! Now for my selfish question :).

    Any idea how much some of these options will cost? :)
     
  14. Troy

    Troy Active Member

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    @pkalhan, my best guess is, 80% of what it costs in the Model S. For example, the dual motor upgrade in the Model S costs $5,000. 80% of that is 0.5*5000= $4,000. I also expect that they will charge $500 per kWh for battery upgrades. In other words, if the 55 starts at $35,000, then I would expect the 75 to start at 35,000+500*(75-55)= $45,000.
     
  15. TacC

    TacC Member

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    While I see where you're coming from, I can't wrap my head around a stereo or motor being cheaper in a 3 than in an S. They're probably similar in cost and labor to install so I don't see the reason for the discount. Taking it to the extreme, how can they justify a discount on EAP/FSD?
     
  16. Runt8

    Runt8 Active Member

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    Option pricing isn't based on cost or labor, it's based on what the market will support. Expensive cars have more expensive options because they can.
     
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  17. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    As far as cost not pricing, it depends, if the motors are physically smaller then that's money saved in material costs. If they are easier to manufacture then that's money saved in time and labor. The same thing with power electronics. We know the inverters for the Model 3 are a brand new design requiring fewer parts and it is cheaper to build.
     
  18. Troy

    Troy Active Member

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    The example I gave about dual motor costing less than $5,000 in the Model 3 was based on Elon's tweet here.
     
  19. pkalhan

    pkalhan Member

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    @Troy thanks for the guess man, I appreciate it. If your guess on the battery upgrade is correct, I guess I am destined for the smaller battery lol. Still not too bad for my driving purposes. Just hoping then for 250 miles of range or close to it.
     
  20. TacC

    TacC Member

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    Impossible to argue with you there and I should not have used the dual motor upgrade as an example. I assume that the motors are smaller (less material) and cheaper to manufacture so a lower cost to upgrade makes sense.

    Something like an upgraded paint color could conceivably fit the same criteria and maybe an extra $750 buys you Metallic Silver (v $1000 on an S).

    If the UHF stereo is identical then I'll find it hard to stomach that being a $500 or $750 upgrade. Same with a discounted EAP and/or FSD upgrade. It doesn't pass Elon's acid test on pricing, it goes against the first principles approach and it could cause some cannibalization.
     

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