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"100 Configurations" based options speculation

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by thelastdeadmouse, May 27, 2017.

  1. Troy

    Troy Active Member

    Aug 24, 2015
    #41 Troy, May 31, 2017
    Last edited: May 31, 2017
    Hi, @pkalhan. Close to 250 mi could happen if they release a 60 kWh battery. My prediction for battery sizes has always been 75 for the largest and 55 kWh for the smallest battery. I'm sticking with these predictions. However, Tesla could make the 55 kWh a software limited version of the 60 kWh. I'm giving this option 20% chance. More details about this theory can be found here.

    75% chance it will be 75/55 kWh.
    20% chance it will be 75/60 and software limited 55 kWh.
    5% chance it will be 75/60 kWh.

    These are my EPA rated range estimates based on detailed calculations here.
    Model 3 75D 297 mi
    Model 3 P75D 281 mi
    Model 3 75 284 mi
    Model 3 55D 227 mi
    Model 3 55 218 mi

    Model 3 60 235 mi
    Model 3 60D 245 mi

    Hi, @TacC. I can think of 3 reasons why the same parts would cost less in the Model 3:
    1. Automation (lower labor costs): Elon said: "There's just a lot more automation than there is for Model S and Model X." Source
    2. Volume discounts: When talking about the initial, low volume, Model S production Elon said, "part cost is enormous because the fixed cost must be allocated over such a small volume" Source. In other words, suppliers give Tesla a cheaper price when the volume increases.
    3. Better suppliers: Elon said: "having shown the results of the Model S and the Model X, the interest from suppliers went from basically getting like the worst team on second tier suppliers to getting the best team on first tier suppliers. Really a big difference." Source.

    I guess I'm a bit of a Tesla fanatic. I read all of Elon's tweets, all shareholder letters and listen to all Tesla conference calls. The hardest part is recalling pieces of information here and there.
    • Informative x 1

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