100d is coming soon

[MP3Mike]

If they are offering P100DL upgrade at the same price for both P90D and P90DL owners, then I see a problem here.

Which they aren't. You can't upgrade a P90D to a P100DL. (At least from what I have seen.)

I think that is where the $30k figure came from: People figured that they could upgrade their P90D to a P90DL for $10k since at that time it was still offered, and then they could turn around and upgrade it to a P100DL for an additional $20k.

 

[AMPd]

According to the email screen shot that I shared in post #64, it was $20K total to go from P90D non-L to P100D.

Yes, when it came out, it was said the cost would be 10k for ludicrous and 20k for the battery. Totaling 30k to upgrade from non ludicrous P90D to P100DL

I'm glad it's 20k total, definitely a lot more reasonable.

 

[JoaoD]

As others have said it, your information seems pretty reasonable. Let us know if you get more "rumors" specially about M3 reveal or something similar

 

[AMPd]

Which they aren't. You can't upgrade a P90D to a P100DL. (At least from what I have seen.)

I think that is where the $30k figure came from: People figured that they could upgrade their P90D to a P90DL for $10k since at that time it was still offered, and then they could turn around and upgrade it to a P100DL for an additional $20k.

But the email.

 

[xborg]

But the email.

There is slight chance that your tesla sales advisor might get it wrong. Otherwise, offering same price for the people who already bought L, is not fair. If they are offering, I think it is a good deal for P90D owners.

 

[DIL]

on quarterly earnings call just now elon said 100 battery packs would be a more significant portion of production in q4...

 

[xborg]

on quarterly earnings call just now elon said 100 battery packs would be a more significant portion of production in q4...

https://electrek.co/2016/10/26/elon...odel-3-self-driving-autopilot-100-kwh-battery
Quoting from electrek:
"At the time, Musk said that they plan for “200 packs per week”, but also that he sees the number increasing in the coming months and that demand for the performance (P100D) version of the battery pack will enough to create a backlog for it and therefore, they don’t plan to introduce a non-performance version (100D), which would be cheaper and would have a longer range."

This is just a game. I'm telling you, everything is ready for 100D. They are just trying to keep it as a premium option so that more people would order a P100DL. The numbers will tell us how soon 100D will be released. If they are not satisfied with P100DL orders, they're gonna introduce 100D.
There is also a small chance that newly produced P90Ds to have 100 battery. So that owners can unlock it to P100D.
Future P90D and 90D with AP2, please check your battery stickers and enlighten us.

Before anyone attack me, this is an educated guess.( or maybe not )

 

[msnow]

Yes, but Elon didn't give a timeframe.
What I'm saying is, It's coming soon, in 3 months. They are getting prepared for the release.

In his tweet he said

https://electrek.co/2016/10/26/elon...odel-3-self-driving-autopilot-100-kwh-battery
Quoting from electrek:
"At the time, Musk said that they plan for “200 packs per week”, but also that he sees the number increasing in the coming months and that demand for the performance (P100D) version of the battery pack will enough to create a backlog for it and therefore, they don’t plan to introduce a non-performance version (100D), which would be cheaper and would have a longer range."

This is just a game. I'm telling you, everything is ready for 100D. They are just trying to keep it as a premium option so that more people would order a P100DL. The numbers will tell us how soon 100D will be released. If they are not satisfied with P100DL orders, they're gonna introduce 100D.
There is also a small chance that newly produced P90Ds to have 100 battery. So that owners can unlock it to P100D.
Future P90D and 90D with AP2, please check your battery stickers and enlighten us.

Before anyone attack me, this is an educated guess.( or maybe not )

In another thread people with new P90DL's checked their voltage via CANBUS and they are not "unlocked" 90's so you can rule that out.

 

[Dan43]

Just read that about the S100D, with X60D being discontinued and those cars probably being X75D & X100D (with a locked out option on the 75 fitted with 100 battery) only as
XP90D has 45 inventory ready to ship it appears that option may be deleted to? To be replaced with those 75s with 100 battery and straight 100D options.
Speculation here also.

 

[brkaus]

I'm guessing they won't bother with the locked out battery option at the higher end. That's more to create an entry level car.

Has anyone determined the cell type and count in the P100D yet? How much more does it weigh than an equivalent 90?

 

[bob_p]

While we've been waiting for the combination of 100D and AP 2.0, I'm concerned about the potential for even more price increases.

AP 2.0 is a $5,500 price increase over AP 1.0 from several months ago.

If they drop the 90 (which is likely) and the 100 is more expensive, that will be an additional price increase for Tesla's longest range car.

And, if they drop the 60 pack option and maintain the current pricing for the 75's, then they've also increased the entry point pricing for the Model S.

 

[theslimshadyist]

If they are offering P100DL upgrade at the same price for both P90D and P90DL owners, then I see a problem here.

Don't shoot the messenger!

 

[xborg]

In his tweet he said

In another thread people with new P90DL's checked their voltage via CANBUS and they are not "unlocked" 90's so you can rule that out.

Hi, I didn't say anything like P90DL's are unlocked 90s.

What I'm saying is, post-October built 90s may have 100 batteries.

 

[hollywood]

Hi, I didn't say anything like P90DL's are unlocked 90s.

What I'm saying is, post-October built 90s may have 100 batteries.

Highly likely, as currently my DS says unable to upgrade to P100D without ludicrous. It may be a future unlock.

 

[msnow]

Hi, I didn't say anything like P90DL's are unlocked 90s.

What I'm saying is, post-October built 90s may have 100 batteries.

You didn't say "post-October" you said "newly produced" and I'm telling you new 90's don't have the 100 battery. The 100 battery is a whole new thing.

@xborg - "There is also a small chance that newly produced P90Ds to have 100 battery. So that owners can unlock it to P100D."

 

[xborg]

You didn't say "post-October" you said "newly produced" and I'm telling you new 90's don't have the 100 battery. The 100 battery is a whole new thing.

@xborg - "There is also a small chance that newly produced P90Ds to have 100 battery. So that owners can unlock it to P100D."

Sorry my bad. I meant post-october.

 

[msnow]

Sorry my bad. I meant post-october.

No worries .

 

[bob_p]

Because the 100's are ramping up in production, it seems highly unlikely they'd be shipping 90's that are software locked 100's.

It's more likely we'll see the P100D (no L) introduced when there are more 100s being built than P100DL orders - and then introduce the 100D after that, with a transition period when both 90 and 100 are offered until they've exhausted the inventory of 90 battery packs, and then remove the 90 options, unless Tesla decides to software limit some of the 100s to maintain the current price points.

Whatever is going to happen though is likely to happen soon. By even talking about the 100's Musk risks depressing 90 sales, while potential buyers hold off on placing orders until the 100s are introduced. So it seems like we could be hearing more about 100s soon.

 

[Troy]

In today's conference call after 31m:30s, Elon talked about 100 kWh packs. You can listen to it here. Login details are not important. You can enter any info you want.

31:50 Elon: Right now there are 3 top priorities for me. Obviously Model 3, then Autopilot self-driving software and then trying to ramp up the 100 kWh production rate. I receive daily updates on the 100 kWh production. After this call, I'm going to be on the 100 kWh production line because the demand is high and we just need to satisfy that demand.
32:45 Analyst: It seems this is more important than profitability in the near term.
32:50 Elon: Definitely in the near term.

Basically, the production ramp-up of the 100 kWh packs is not happening quick enough. They don't have enough packs for 100Ds. Selling 100 kWh packs as software limited 90s is completely out of the questions. It's not possible.

Based on this latest info, S100D and X100D seem less likely in Q4. Even if it happens, it's not likely to be in November because, if they add the 100D to the design studio now, some people who would normally order the S75D, will order an S100D and then Tesla won't be able to deliver that order in Q4 because they don't have enough packs. They need to build up some inventory of 100 kWh packs and then release the 100D as late as possible in December and then only deliver in California because there won't be enough time.

This problem with 100 kWh packs means they won't be able to capture all the demand for 100Ds in Q4. But they still need 25K sales. Therefore another firesale in December is now more likely and it should be mostly on 75 kWh versions.

 

[jgillispie]

There's a lot of angles to look at it. They obviously want to have a big 4th quarter and get as close to that 80k goal as possible or over. Churning out enough 100 packs fast enough is the key for that I assume. We don't know for certain they are having trouble with the packs, just that the demand could be higher than anticipated.